Ten early takeaways on Oklahoma basketball

It is December 11 and the Sooners sit at 6-3 with a road loss to Gonzaga and neutral-site losses to Nebraska and Arizona State. They rank 56th in KenPom, the lowest rating any of Porter Moser’s Oklahoma teams have had at this point in the season.

Here are ten early takeaways, both good and bad, about this Oklahoma basketball team so far.

1. Bedlam is a must win

Oklahoma has faced three KenPom top 50 teams so far, with the lone win coming on the road at Wake Forest, who ranks 46th. Oklahoma State sits at 50th and Steve Lutz has the Pokes off to a good start. This game gives Oklahoma one more shot at a quality win before conference play. Bedlam is a must win for the Sooners’ resume and for proving that they can beat good teams when it matters.

2. Oklahoma looks headed for another bubble season

Oklahoma has become a yearly bubble team under Moser and this season looks no different. The SEC is no longer the gauntlet it appeared to be a week ago, which makes a .500 record in conference play very attainable. The problem is that .500 may not hold the value it did last season. Torvik’s tourney cast shows how crucial Bedlam is. A conference record at .500 with a Bedlam win gives the Sooners a 49.1 percent chance at a bid and projects them in the last four in. A Bedlam loss drops that number to 30.1 percent. It is only December, but the Sooners do not have a large margin of error.

3. Nebraska and Gonzaga are legitimate high level teams

It is easy to look at three losses and feel discouraged, especially considering how those losses looked in the moment. It is worth noting that Gonzaga, ranked No. 3 in KenPom, and Nebraska, ranked No. 26, are both high level teams. Arizona State could simply be chalked up to a let down night where Oklahoma did not shoot the ball well. Even so, the Sooners need to win Bedlam for those losses to be viewed with that level of grace.

4. The defense has major issues

In the past, Moser’s teams were strong defensively and inconsistent on the offensive end. That has flipped this season. Oklahoma ranks 35th in offensive efficiency and 115th in defensive efficiency. The Nebraska game featured a defensive rating of 131.1, the worst number for any Moser team at Oklahoma. This group is not going to become elite defensively, but it must improve quickly. Oklahoma State can score and will stress the Sooners in ways other opponents have not.

5. Tae Davis dictates the ceiling of this team

Tae Davis flipped a switch in the second half against Marquette and carried that into the Wake Forest win. He scored 19 and 18 in those two games after an underwhelming start to the season. When Davis is engaged on both ends, Oklahoma becomes a different team. He gives them an offensive hub at the four and a reliable go to scorer. The Sooners need this version of Davis consistently.

6. Nijel Pack has been as advertised

Although he had an off night against Arizona State, Nijel Pack has been everything Oklahoma hoped he would be. He is 35 for 72 from three (48.6 percent) and averaging 17.2 points per game. When Pack is shooting well, the Sooners usually have a chance regardless of their defensive issues. His performance should be one of the biggest positives for Oklahoma moving forward. If the right pieces step up around him, Pack can lead this team back to the tournament.

7. Jadon Jones has emerged as a real bright spot

Before his debut on November 20, the Sooners had not seen Jadon Jones play since his Long Beach State days in 2024, which made him a genuine wildcard. In five games, he has carved out a steady role as a needed 3 and D wing. He is shooting 31.6 percent from three and drawing a foul per game on three point attempts. More importantly, he has been excellent defensively both on and off the ball. His role in conference play will be significant.

8. More consistency is needed from Brown and Forsythe

Xzayvier Brown opened the season well but has been in a slump over the last five games. He has had good moments as a facilitator and some rough ones with turnovers, but at times this team simply needs more from him. Dayton Forsythe flashed plenty last season and has shown some positives again this year, but he has struggled to find a rhythm. The two are a combined 0 for 21 from three in the last three games. These slumps will likely pass, but Oklahoma needs more production from the backcourt. It was supposed to be a strength and lately has not been.

9. Kuol Atak deserves a rotation role

Oklahoma’s leading scorer against Arizona State was Kuol Atak, who finished with 12 points on 4 for 8 shooting in only nine minutes, all in the second half. He did not play meaningful minutes in the two games prior. Atak has an offensive BPM of 4.5, the third highest on the team, and a usage rate of 20.6, the fourth highest. His defensive BPM is minus 2.1, the lowest on the roster. You get elite shooting and offensive juice with below average defense. Even so, the Sooners need to find him 6 to 10 minutes per game. Leaving that level of shooting on the bench is a choice.

10. Kai Rogers is taking quiet but real steps forward

One encouraging development has been Kai Rogers’ steady improvement. He has played 7, 8, and 11 minutes in the last three games and looked solid in each. His minutes against Marquette and Wake Forest were especially promising. Some nights Oklahoma will not need much from him if Mohamed Wague avoids foul trouble, but the more Rogers grows, the higher the ceiling becomes for this frontcourt. Based on his recent play, it is easier to feel comfortable with the rotation at the five.

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