OU-LSU: Can the Sooners clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff?

NORMAN — Oklahoma has everything on the line heading into this weekend’s regular-season finale against LSU.

The eighth-ranked Sooners have an 85% chance of making the College Football Playoff, the ninth-best odds in the country, per ESPN’s playoff predictor. With a win, the Sooners’ chances rise above 99% with an 88% chance of hosting a first-round game.

With a loss, the Sooners’ chances to make the playoff drop to 43%. Essentially, the Sooners are in a win-and-in situation with everything on the line.

They’re facing an LSU (7-4, 3-4 SEC) team that has had one of the most disappointing seasons in the country. There’s a reason the Sooners are a 10.5-point favorite this weekend. But OU coach Brent Venables isn’t buying that kind of talk.

“(We have) as talented of a roster as we’ve faced this season in LSU, from the lines of scrimmage to the skill players, both sides of the ball,” Venables said Tuesday. “The defense has been exceptional all year long. One of the best in college football. Incredibly talented at all three levels.

“You can go on and on about bragging about the different players that they have.”

Can the Sooners put the final nail in LSU’s coffin and punch a CFP bid? Or could they find themselves in another close game with an LSU team that’s looking to play the spoiler role?

Here are the things to watch in an incredibly pivotal matchup this weekend:

How does Oklahoma’s offensive line hold up?

The Sooners’ group of front won’t be at full strength this weekend. Starting center Jake Maikkula was listed as doubtful on Thursday’s availability report, indicating it’s unlikely he plays this weekend.

With Maikkula out, the Sooners will likely move right guard Febechi Nwaiwu to center. That shifts true freshman Ryan Fodje — who has started the last four games at right tackle — over to right guard, with Derek Simmons handling things at right tackle.

It’ll be a brand new group at offensive line, with Nwaiwu playing out of position, which isn’t ideal. The good news is this is far from the stoutest defensive line the Sooners have faced this season. LSU ranks 32nd in total sacks (27) and 89th in tackles for loss (56). But it’ll be interesting to see how that group holds up.

Can OU run the ball effectively?

The new-look offensive line certainly has an impact on this.

After it looked like the Sooners had turned the corner in the running back, they’ve slowed down a bit. OU has 177 rushing yards on under three yards per carry over the last two weeks. A big reason for that has been the injuries to Xavier Robinson and Tory Blaylock. Robinson saw all 12 running back carries and played all but one snap against Missouri, despite clearly dealing with an injured knee.

Will Robinson remain the clear lead running back against LSU? Is there any room in the rotation for Taylor Tatum or Jaydn Ott?

Either way, this should be a matchup where the Sooners can run effectively. LSU ranks 31st nationally in rushing defense, but that’s a little misleading. The Tigers are giving up 161 rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry against SEC opponents. It would be discouraging if the Sooners can’t be productive on the ground, even with their health situations at running back and offensive line.

Can OU’s defense generate pressure on Michael Van Buren Jr.?

The former three-star quarterback will make his third-consecutive start this weekend.

He can be dangerous as a runner, totaling 48 rushing yards over the last two weeks. He’s also been solid enough as passer, throwing over 200 yards in each of his first two starts.

But the Sooners should be able to generate all kinds of pressure on Van Buren. He’s been sacked six times the last two weeks, including twice in the 13-10 win over Western Kentucky. LSU has given up 25 sacks this season, which ranks 95th nationally. The Sooners lead the country in total sacks with 41.

The Sooners have had some trouble when they’ve faced dual-threat quarterbacks this season. But if they can make things difficult on Van Buren, it’s hard to see LSU’s offense scoring much in Norman.

Who wins the turnover margin and special teams battle?

Those two areas have been absolutely pivotal to the Sooners’ success over the last three weeks.

The Sooners have won the turnover margin 8-2 during that stretch, including back-to-back games without a turnover. Meanwhile, OU’s special teams, led by kicker Tate Sandell and punter Grayson Miller, continue to make game-changing plays.

But they’re facing an LSU defense that has forced 18 takeaways this season, including 14 interceptions. John Mateer has thrown a couple of interception-worthy passes the last couple of weeks that were dropped. He can’t afford to make those types of throws against the Tigers.

LSU kicker Damian Ramos has been very solid this season. He’s made 22 of 26 field goal attempts, including 11 field goals from beyond 40 yards. LSU punter Grant Chadwick ranks 16th in yards per punt (46.1).

With both offenses having their fair share of struggles over the last month, special teams could play a huge role on Saturday. It’s imperative the Sooners keep winning that battle.

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