OUInsider Staff Picks: Can the Sooners beat Alabama once again?
It’s almost football time in Oklahoma.
The Sooners host Alabama on Friday night (7 p.m. CT, ABC) for a first-round matchup in the College Football Playoff. We’ve seen these two teams play before — the Sooners beat the Crimson Tide, 23-21, in Tuscaloosa last month.
However, despite that win, and the Sooners playing at home, the Crimson Tide remain a 1.5-point betting favorite. The oddsmakers suggest the Sooners face an uphill battle to win this game a second time.
What does the OUInsider staff think will happen in this rematch? Here’s our overviews and score predictions for OU-Bama, Part II:
Parker Thune
I think this is a moment and an environment that this team feels destined to own. And I expect that the Sooners will be able to drag Alabama into the “grimy” type of battle in which Brent Venables’ team thrives.
R Mason Thomas returns to action, and with Thomas coming off one edge and Taylor Wein coming off the other, I think OU will be able to generate enough pressure to make Ty Simpson’s life difficult all night. I’m not counting on Oklahoma’s defense to force three turnovers like it did in Tuscaloosa last month, but I don’t think chunk plays and sustained drives will be as easy to come by for the Tide this time around, either. I trust Oklahoma to win the time-of-possession battle within what ought to be a much more normal game flow this time around.
I believe Venables outcoaches Kalen DeBoer for the third straight matchup, and give me Jaren Kanak to finally find the end zone as Oklahoma wins a rock fight.
Score prediction: Oklahoma 20, Alabama 10
Brody Lusk
Looking back at the Sooners’ Red November run that propelled them to the College Football Playoff, some of the biggest plays that come to mind are R Mason Thomas’ 71-yard strip-sack touchdown after Owen Heinecke forced the fumble, or Eli Bowen’s 87-yard interception return to the house against this same Alabama team.
That’s the common thread. Many of the most memorable moments from this season have come off turnovers forced by Oklahoma’s defense. That has been the recipe all year, and it will need to be again on Friday night.
Jam Miller returning for Alabama is significant, but this is still a Crimson Tide team that has struggled to consistently run the football. If the Sooners can get Ty Simpson rattled early, it will go a long way in shaping this game.
Offensively, Oklahoma doesn’t need to be great. They just need to be functional. One chunk play here or there, sustain a few drives, and most importantly, put Lou Groza Award–winning kicker Tate Sandell in range.
I like Oklahoma to turn this into a grimy, physical game and squeeze out a close win behind its defense and special teams.
Score Prediction: Oklahoma 19, Alabama 17
Jesse Crittenden
It’s been a popular saying this week — it’s hard (or impossible) to beat the same team twice in one season.
That might be true. But the Sooners will do it.
The Sooners won two key battles in Tuscaloosa, and they are non-negotiables heading into this matchup. They sacked Ty Simpson four times last month, and they have to win the battle up front and generate that same type of pressure again. Getting R Mason Thomas back should certainly help in that regard.
Secondly, the Sooners easily won the special teams battle. But hidden in the brilliance of Tate Sandell, Grayson Miller and Isaiah Sategna was the field-position battle. The Sooners’ average starting field position was their own 43-yard line. Alabama? Their own 21-yard line.
Simpson had five passes of 20-plus yards in the first matchup, and I expect the Crimson Tide to be able to generate some explosive plays again.
So this game will come down to two key questions.
- Can Alabama avoid the costly turnovers?
- Can the Sooners run the ball more efficiently?
I expect the Sooners to again utilize their defensive pressure and force a couple of turnovers. I also think the Sooners will run the ball better than their 74-yard, 2.6-yards-per-carry performance the last time. The time off has been very beneficial for Tory Blaylock and Xavier Robinson.
Both teams have advantages over the other. But I think the Sooners will win the areas that matter most and keep their championship hopes alive with a win at home.
But it won’t be easy.
Score prediction: Oklahoma 16, Alabama 14
Brandon Drumm
Rematches are always hard to win a second time around. You saw that exact thing play out when Alabama took on UGA in the SEC Championship Game. The second time around, it was a UGA win in a big way.
There are some that feel Alabama is due to beat Oklahoma on Friday night. I think anyone can make a case for the Crimson Tide if they want to do so. There is the fact they doubled OU in yards in the previous meeting this season. Or that the Sooners’ offense is viewed as much more lackluster, considering the national narrative that the Sooners only won the last two outings due to turnovers. All valid cases, but Oklahoma is still 2-0 the last two seasons by winning by a combined score of 47-24. That fact is still… A FACT.
So Brent Venables and the Sooners have figured something out vs Bama, right?
When you add that this will be the biggest home game in Norman in 17+ seasons, there is also a lot to like if you’re the Sooners. First and foremost, how about All-SEC edge rusher R Mason Thomas returning, you will have a fully healthy DT Jayden Jackson (who many consider the Sooners best DL), three more weeks for Xavier Robinson and Tory Blaylock to get healthy, and of course, QB John Mateer getting three more weeks to build more strength and stability in his surgery repaired thumb. All in all, there is a lot of good that came from the three week sabbatical that OU has been on.
So, how does that play into the game on Friday night? I am interested to see how Mateer’s mental makeup may have shifted with more time rehab his thumb. Has he gained more confidence in it? Can he be the physical fire-starter he was in the first four weeks of the season for OU? Will he play with the reckless abandon he did at that time? If so, I like the Sooners’ chances with all they have returning on defense and OU being more healthy than they have been in months.
I think the offenses score more than they did in the first meeting, but I also think this game is a knockdown, drag out type of affair once again. The Sooners force a turnover and have a big special teams play that help OU in the win. Lou Groza winner, Tate Sandell, has a few FG’s as well. It’s close once again, but the Sooners move on to round two with the OU crowd behind them.
Score prediction: Oklahoma 27, Alabama 24