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Oklahoma

Pre-Snap Read: Oklahoma at South Carolina

by: Bryan Clinton10/17/25BClinton40
John Mateer19
OU quarterback John Mateer. (Jerome Miron - Imagn Images)

The Saturday after Red River brings another SEC test as No. 14 Oklahoma (5–1, 1–1 SEC) heads to South Carolina (3–3, 1–3 SEC) at 12:45 p.m. ET (SEC Network) in Williams-Brice. Oddsmakers have the Sooners favored by around 5.5 points with a total of 43.5, and OU’s red-zone perfection plus a top-two defensive profile (by advanced metrics) make this a tricky spot for the Gamecocks. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle guides the OU attack as the Sooners look to rebound from the Texas loss.

Here are some of the key matchups to watch on Saturday.

OU Offense vs. South Carolina Defense

What to watch: Arbuckle’s early script & on-schedule throws

Arbuckle’s group has been automatic in the red zone (20/20 scores, 15 TDs), but even getting there was an issue against Texas, as John Mateer turned the ball over three times and the OU offense failed to find its footing. Ball security and efficiency will be a huge emphasis this week against a South Carolina defense that has taken the ball away in coverage (8 INTs) and is pretty stingy at home. Expect an early script built to keep John Mateer on schedule, then selective shots downfield if safeties try to dive on the run. OU’s run rotation—or just Tory Blaylock at this point—needs to find enough space this week to make the Gamecocks respect the run. If not, South Carolina’s pass rush can become a factor.

OU Defense vs. South Carolina Offense

What to watch: compress the pocket, cap the QB run

LaNorris Sellers headlines USC’s offense, but it’s his supporting cast that has been the downfall so far this year. The Gamecocks have struggled to produce explosives against Power opponents (e.g., 124 pass yds at LSU), and OU’s defense is the best unit they will have faced to this point. The plan for Brent Venables: win first down with an elite defensive interior and keep the edges disciplined vs. QB keepers. Do that, and the Sooners can then unleash simulated pressure on 3rd-and-long. If OU forces Sellers into tight-window throws, South Carolina’s efficiency dips quickly.

Oklahoma’s X-Factor: Hidden yards & field position

With OU’s defense already setting the floor, the swing piece is hidden yards—punt coverage/returns and drive starts. South Carolina has leaned on defense/special teams to survive lulls (and their DBs generate takeaways); flipping fields turns Arbuckle’s red-zone perfection into short-field touchdowns instead of long-march field goals. If OU wins, the average starting field position by a couple of yards per drive tips heavily crimson.

Must-Win Matchup: OU interior DL vs. USC interior OL

Make South Carolina one-handed. If Dominic Williams/David Stone/Jayden Jackson can control the A-gaps, Rahsul Faison’s inside runs die on contact, and Sellers is funneled to late downs. That’s where Venables’ third-down menu (creepers/sims) shines—and where OU’s No. 1 success-rate defense becomes drive-killing. On the flip-side, if USC creates even average interior movement, they can live in 2nd-and-medium and keep everying open for Sellers to create and buy time.

Opponent Overview: What South Carolina Must Do to Win

  1. Win Turnover Margin: Simple, but effective. OU comes into this game ranked 131st in turnouver margin (-7), while South Carolina ranks eighth (+6). They’ve got to win in this category and cash in on short-field opportunities.
  2. Find a Running Game: If South Carolina is going to win, they’ll have to find success running the football. Whether it’s the traditional running game, or supplemental QB draws, perimeter screens, and Sellers just creating with his legs—the Gamecocks have to do enough to keep themselves out of obvious passing downs.
  3. Finish drives: South Carolina’s red-zone offense has not been great, ranking 118th nationally with scores on 75% of their trips inside the 20 and touchdowns on just 50% of those drives. Against OU, they’ll need to capitalize on those opportunities.
  4. Limit Big Plays from Mateer: Play well enough up front that you can stay in top-down coverage and rally tacklers to the ball carrier in the flats. If OU can’t run the ball and has to push the ball downfield all game, it’s a recipe for success for USC.

Final Thoughts & Projection

From a strictly statistical standpoint, OU profiles as the better team: a top-two defense by efficiency, a perfect red-zone offense, and a special teams unit that has been a real weapon at times this year.

However, the Sooners are coming off a brutal loss, and they’ve got to pack up and hit the road to play in one of the most underrated venues in college football.

If Arbuckle’s opening script gets Mateer comfortable and OU avoids the giveaway that jump-starts Williams-Brice, the Sooners should grind this into a possession/field-position game that they can control.

Projection: Oklahoma 24, South Carolina 16