Pre-Snap Read: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
The stakes are high for No. 11 Oklahoma (7–2, 3–2 SEC), as the Sooners head to No. 4 Alabama (8–1, 6–0 SEC) for an SEC showdown on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT (ABC) inside Bryant-Denny. This is Oklahoma’s best remaining chance to make a real statement to the College Football Playoff committee—and the single biggest swing game on the Sooners’ CFP path.
Here’s what to watch as the Sooners take on the Tide.
OU Offense vs. Alabama Defense
What to Watch: Feed Robinson, Let Mateer Create
Ben Arbuckle’s gamw plan should start and end with Xavier Robinson—an emerging bellcow—and a steady dose of John Mateer in the designed QB run game. Robinson’s downhill style has given the line a rhythm the last two weeks, and Alabama’s front, while physical, has shown just enough leakage in the run fit to make first down the swing snap. Let Robinson hammer the Tide’s interior, pair it with Mateer’s keepers and pocket escapes, and live in second-and-medium where the whole menu (RPOs, quick play-action, glance routes) is at their disposal. The flash and gimmick-style plays can wait–this should be a Robinson volume game with Mateer’s legs serving as a change of pace. If they can force Alabama to play single coverage on the outside, and key on the run, it could give the Sooners enough balance to have success in the passing game, too.
OU Defense vs. Alabama Offense
What to Watch: OU’s Pass Rush vs. Ty Simpson—and Life Without Gentry Williams
This turns on whether Oklahoma can hit the quarterback without busting on the back end. The Sooners bring the nation’s most productive pass-rush, and Alabama has been tagged enough times to matter, with Ty Simpson taking 15 sacks on the season. However, when he’s had time, Simpson has been ruthlessly efficient. If OU is going to pull off the upset, their disruption has to arrive on time. Let the edges work, an elite interior defensive line squeeze from the inside, take away his platform, and make him throw to a closing window. With Gentry Williams likely out, OU’s corners need the call sheet to protect them—top-down coverage, rally and tackle, and force Simpson to stack 10-play drives instead of landing 40-yard shots. First-down wins set the table; third-and-7 is OU’s wheelhouse.
Oklahoma’s X-Factor: Robinson’s Volume + Mateer’s Legs
Oklahoma is at its best when defenses must defend both the downhill hammer and the quarterback. Give Robinson 20+ touches to set the tone, then let Mateer change the math with designed keepers, option tags, and the threat to escape when Alabama plays man and turns its back. Even 40–60 rushing yards from the QB—plus two or three chain-moving scrambles—can flip a field and keep Arbuckle ahead of the sticks. That’s how you turn long drives into sevens, not threes.
Must-Win Matchup: OU’s Pass-Rush Group vs. Bama’s Interior—Before It Gets Outside
With the corner rotation thinner than usual, the most reliable help for the secondary is interior pressure. If Gracen Halton, David Stone, and the rest of the rotation control the A/B gaps and muddy Simpson’s launch points, Alabama’s play-action timing frays, and the explosive throws get harder to land. The Tide have protected reasonably well overall this season, but when they’re nudged off schedule and the run baseline dips, protections are easier to counter and Simpson has less time to operate. Own the interior, and Venables can affect the game rushing four.
Opponent Overview: What Alabama Must Do to Win
Alabama’s clean path to a win: hover near 50% on third down, keep the run credible so Venables can’t camp in pass, and finish drives against a defense that loves long fields. Above all, protect the football—Simpson’s low-mistake profile is their best asset. If the Tide bottles up Robinson on early downs and keeps Mateer in the pocket, Bryant-Denny will start stacking hidden yards.
Final Thoughts
This has the feel of a possession game decided by first down and the quarterback’s legs. If Oklahoma leans into a Robinson-centric script, sprinkles Mateer’s designed runs and scramble threat, and lands the pass rush without busts, the Sooners can drag this into a fourth-quarter fight with real upset equity. If Alabama stays on schedule, keeps Simpson clean, and forces OU to kick, the margin for error shrinks.
Projection: Oklahoma 24, Alabama 20.