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Pre-Snap Read: Oklahoma vs. Alabama, Pt. 2

by: Bryan Clinton12/17/25BClinton40

Here we go again. After putting together the most impressive stretch of football in Brent Venables’ tenure, No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2, 6-2 SEC) is set to host their first-ever home College Football Playoff game in Norman. Their opponent is a familiar one, as No. 9 Alabama (10-3, 7-1 SEC) comes to town looking to avenge a 23-21 loss in Tuscaloosa that is barely a month behind them.

This time, the stakes are a bit higher. The loser hangs it up for the year, while the victor will get set for a trip to Pasadena (Calif.) to take on No. 1 Indiana.

Here’s what to watch as the Sooners host the Tide on Friday, December 19 (7:00 p.m. CT, ABC/ESPN)

OU Offense vs. Alabama Defense

What to Watch: Can OU Create Real Offense, Not Just Short-Field Points?

The first meeting between these two teams has been a blueprint for Oklahoma winning games—but it also serves as a warning label. Oklahoma scored 23 points, but it wasn’t built on sustained drives: the Sooners finished with 212 total yards and went 3-for-13 on third down, while Alabama moved the ball but kept handing it back. Since that night, Oklahoma’s offense has stayed a little streaky in terms of down-to-down efficiency. Overall, OU is averaging 26.4 points per game and 5.37 yards per play, but remains a perfect 32-of-32 when getting into the red zone. Even with the best defense in the country, the Sooners’ chances of making a run will be determined by whether their offense can find more sustained success.

So the deciding question is simple: can OU generate enough offense to avoid needing another turnover parade?

OU Defense vs. Alabama Offense

What to Watch: Make Ty Simpson Feel The Pressure

Alabama’s offensive identity is clear: If Ty Simpson is on schedule, the Tide’s offense is efficient enough to be one-dimensional and find success despite their 117th-ranked rushing attack (116.3 ypg). However, Simpson has struggled to shoulder the load down the stretch. Over the last four games, Simpson has thrown four interceptions and seen his completion percentage plummet, completing just 59.6% of his attempts.

Struggles along the offensive line have certainly played a factor, too, as Simpson has been sacked 10 times during that stretch, and ranks 85th nationally with 25 sacks allowed on the year. That’s a major concern for the Tide’s offense, considering Oklahoma ranks first nationally with 41 sacks on the season and got to Simpson four times in Tuscaloosa without R Mason Thomas in the lineup.

If OU can disrupt Simpson without overcommitting bodies to the pass rush, Venables can dial up whatever he wants in the backend to make life hard on the Tide’s signal caller. Do that, and you’re in good shape at home.

Oklahoma’s X-Factor: Robinson’s Volume + Mateer’s Legs

This matchup still comes down to leverage, not volume—and Oklahoma proved that in Tuscaloosa. The Sooners were outgained by nearly 200 yards in the first meeting, went 3-for-13 on third down, and still walked out with a win because they owned field position. Short fields turned modest drives into points, while Alabama was forced to grind the long way and settle.

Two of OU’s scoring opportunities started inside Alabama territory, another touchdown came on a pick-six, and the rest of the night followed the same script: Oklahoma needed three to five plays to score, Alabama needed eight to ten. That math breaks even good offenses.

Nothing about the rematch changes that equation. If Oklahoma forces Alabama to play on long fields—deep punts, no return freebies, no penalties that flip the field—the Sooners don’t need explosive offense to win. They just need to finish. And they’ve been elite at that all season. Flip it the other way, and the margin shrinks fast. If Alabama steals a possession or two with short fields, the burden shifts to OU’s offense to sustain 70–80 yard drives, which isn’t the game Oklahoma wants to play.

Bottom line: field position is the multiplier. If the Sooners win it again, they can beat Alabama twice in five weeks. If they lose it, everything else gets harder.

Must-Win Matchup: Turnover Margin

This is the whole game. The last two meetings in this series are the case study: Oklahoma has forced six turnovers—including two pick-sixes—and has won both games.

The season-long profiles suggest that Alabama might have the edge in this department, as Oklahoma is minus-2 in turnover margin, while the Tide are plus-7. However, the Sooners’ defense has forced nine turnovers in their last four games and comes into this game with a ton of confidence. If OU plays clean and forces Alabama into mistakes, the Sooners can win this game going away. But, if OU gives the ball away in a rematch, it’s hard to see the Sooners’ offense finding its way against a good Alabama defense.

Opponent Overview: What Alabama Must Do to Win

  • Flip the Field in Special Teams. No short fields for Oklahoma—directional punts, clean coverage, and no hidden-yards puts pressure on the Sooners to drive the length of the field.
  • Win on First Down. Staying out of third-and-long will be pivotal to keep play-action alive—and Ty Simpson upright.
  • Protect the Football. Turnovers were the difference last time; breaking even keeps Alabama alive, going negative again likely ends their season.
  • Finish Drives. Touchdowns only—Alabama can’t afford to get into a field goal derby against the Lou Groza Award winner, Tate Sandell.

Final Thoughts

Vegas is basically telling you what this game is: Alabama -1 to -1.5 with a total around 40.5—a tight, low-scoring rock-fight that looks a lot like the first meeting—the only difference is this time, it’s in the Palace on the Prairie.

In what should be an unforgettable homefield environment, Oklahoma’s winning formula of elite defense and special teams, complemented by an opportunistic offense, should be enough to get it done.

If Oklahoma protects the football and plays a clean game, they’ve got a very real path to taking down Alabama twice in five weeks. With a banged-up offensive line, a couple of key contributors out on defense, and a waning confidence down the stretch, it feels like Kalen DeBoer’s group is limping into this game a bit. Still, it is Alabama, and they won’t go down without one heck of a fight.

Projection: Oklahoma 24, Alabama 20.