Pre-Snap Read: Oklahoma vs. LSU
One more step before Selection Sunday: No. 11 Oklahoma (9–2, 5–2 SEC) welcomes LSU (7–4, 3–4 SEC) to Norman on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT (ABC). Win, and the Sooners are guaranteed a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff—and very likely hosting a first-round game on December 20. The forecast also adds a wrinkle: cool temps and a stiff north-northwest wind point to a classic field-position day, where the ball knuckles in the air and anything 40+ yards in the kicking game gets sketchy. Perfect for a team that’s leaned into defense, the quarterback running game, and finishing in the red zone.
Here’s what to watch as the Sooners take on the Tigers.
OU Offense vs. LSU Defense
What to Watch: Late-Season Adjustments for Windage, Attrition
The Sooners’ offensive identity has been hard to pinpoint this season, but when they’ve been at their best, Xavier Robinson has been the bellcow, and John Mateer is part of the run game. Two tweaks for this week: First, center Jake Maikkula is out, so Febechi Nwaiwu takes over at the pivot, which puts attention on interior communication. Secondly, Robinson is banged up, and Taylor Tatum is healthy and available for the first time this year—whatever that means. At the very least, Tatum gives Ben Arbuckle a fresh downhill runner if volume needs to be spread out.
The run baseline matters more than usual today with the wind: early-down efficiency keeps the menu wide open (RPO, quick play-action, glance routes) and limits LSU’s ability to tee off. Mateer’s legs are going to have to play a large role in this game, too. Inside the 20, OU’s trump card remains intact: the Sooners have been perfect in the red zone all season, and on a windy day, turning short fields into seven points is everything.
OU Defense vs. LSU Offense
What to Watch: Make LSU One-Dimensional, Then Close The Windows
Personnel shifts push this squarely toward Brent Venables’ group. Garrett Nussmeier is out, so Michael Van Buren draws another start, and LSU also travels light up front and outside—center Braelin Moore, tackle Ory Williams, and receivers Aaron Anderson and Nic Anderson are out. That’s a lot of timing and protection removed from an offense that’s already been searching on the ground.
Oklahoma’s job is familiar: win first and second down with an elite front, squeeze the running game, and funnel LSU into third-and-long, where Van Buren will be forced to throw on time into tight windows. The wind helps here, too: perimeter timing throws and long kicks get dicey, and a defense that’s been elite against the run can force LSU to stack long drives instead of landing a couple of haymakers.
Oklahoma’s X-Factor: Field Position
This profiles as a hidden-yards afternoon. Gusty punts will die or balloon, kickoff depth will vary by series, and one mishit can gift a short field. Oklahoma has quietly owned this phase all year—steady net punting, clean coverage, and a defense that forces more punts than it kicks. If that holds, Arbuckle inherits short fields, and OU’s red-zone card converts them.
Must-Win Matchup: Turnover Margin
If Oklahoma plays clean, LSU’s margin shrinks to almost nothing. Wind increases ball-security risk on snaps, meshes, and downfield throws; it also amplifies the value of every extra possession. With the Tigers starting Michael Van Buren and missing multiple offensive starters, their clearest path is short fields via takeaways. Flip that: if OU finishes even or better in turnovers—no loose balls on QB run/RPO exchanges, no forced throws into the wind—then the Sooners’ advantages (rush defense, field position, red-zone perfection) stack on top of each other. A +1 here is worth points in a game that figures to be played between the 40s; +2 probably ends it.
Opponent Overview: What LSU Must Do to Win
- Find a Run Floor: Any kind of run game helps keep Venables out of his third-down bag.
- Protect the Young QB: manufacture easy throws—screens, quick game—to stay ahead of the chains.
- Steal Field Position: In the wind, a couple of punts that check up—or a mishit that sails—can gift short fields.
- Win Turnover Margin: Create short fields and cheap points.
Final Thoughts
The blueprint looks like most of Oklahoma’s best wins: win first down on defense, own field position, and let a run-first plan with Mateer’s legs chew clock and cash in short fields. Given the weather and LSU’s injury list, this comes down to mistakes. If the Sooners keep the ball off the turf and out of harm’s way, they walk into Selection Sunday in the field—and likely hosting.
Projection: Oklahoma 27, LSU 10