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Pre-Snap Read: Oklahoma vs. Missouri

by: Bryan Clinton11/21/25BClinton40

The boys are back in Norman with momentum, as No. 8 Oklahoma (8–2, 4–2 SEC) hosts No. 22Missouri (7–3, 3–3 SEC) on Saturday at 11:00 a.m. CT (ABC). After beating Alabama and Tennessee in back-to-back road games, the Sooners have put themselves in great position to make a charge at the College Football Playoff. Now, they have to take care of business at home, and that starts against a good Missouri squad.

It’s a picturesque style fight—OU’s top-ranked rush defense against one of the nation’s best rushing outfits—and it appears the Tigers could get their QB1 back just in time.

Here’s what to watch as the Sooners take on the Tigers.

OU Offense vs. Missouri Defense

What to Watch: John Mateer’s Decision-Making

Missouri brings a quality defense to Norman this weekend, ranking in the top 15 nationally in several team efficiency splits (yards/play allowed ~4.5, total yards allowed ~283/game; third-down defense ~33%) and can squeeze throwing windows with a disciplined back seven. For John Mateer, the winning script is the same one that traveled to Tuscaloosa: stay on schedule with QB involvement in the run game, then punish top-down looks with glance routes and play-action shots. Additionally, there’s quite a bit of uncertainty around the Sooners’ running back room, so Mateer’s legs could be busier than normal. OU doesn’t need fireworks—just steady early-down success that keeps Mateer out of long-yardage against a front that can heat you up. If the Sooners keep this in 2nd-and-manageable, Missouri’s pressure menu gets thinner, and the red-zone card (OU remains near-perfect) can decide it.

OU Defense vs. Missouri Offense

What to Watch: Strength on Strength

Few matchups this weekend are clearer than this one, as Oklahoma enters allowing 78.3 rushing yards per game (No. 2 nationally) and 2.3 yards per carry (No. 1), while Missouri’s offense operates best as a meat-grinder, churning out over 240 rushing yards per game, and averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The Tigers have leaned heavily on Ahmad Hardy, who just hung 300 yards on Mississippi State, and on a run call sheet that skews north of 58% by play count. OU’s path is familiar—win first down with an elite defensive line keeping the interior gaps clean, and force Mizzou to chase explosives instead of living in 2nd-and-4. If the Sooners squeeze the A/B gaps and rally from the top, Missouri’s offense stagnates.

X-Factor: Beau Pribula’s Return — and What 100% Looks Like

According to a report from ESPN’s Pete Thamel, Missouri expects Beau Pribula back after he missed two games with a dislocated left ankle. He was upgraded to questionable yesterday and multiple outlets report that he’s on track to play. Even if he’s cleared, the question is mobility and timing off play-action—key pieces in the Tigers’ run-first identity. If he’s full-go, Missouri regains its best zone-read and RPO answers; if he’s limited, OU can sit heavier on Hardy and live top-down against the perimeter throws. Watch the first couple of keepers: if Pribula pulls and gets vertical, Missouri’s playbook opens.

Must-Win Matchup: Field Position & Special Teams (The Hidden-Yards Game)

Both staffs know this is a possession fight—that means short fields are gold. Oklahoma has quietly owned the field-position game: Grayson Miller is averaging ~47.0 yards per punt, and OU’s net sits around 40.6, while Missouri’s net is ~38.8. Add in opponent punting volume—teams punt 5.8 times/game vs. OU compared to the Sooners’ 4.1—and you get the script: win first down on defense, win the exchange, and hand the offense 55-yard fields. If OU avoids the penalty spike and keeps starting position tilted, the red-zone edge becomes a scoreboard edge.

Opponent Overview: What Missouri Must Do to Win

  • Run the Ball Effectively: 240+ yards per game on the ground is their identity.
  • Get 90–100% of Beau Pribula: If QB keepers are live, OU can’t overplay Hardy.
  • Steal Field Position: flip a couple of punts, avoid the bad penalty, and force OU into long fields where drives stall.
  • Finish Drives with Seven: Oklahoma’s defense has been good enough to help the offense thrives on long fields—TDs, not FGs, are the path to beating the Sooners.

Final Thoughts

This is a trench game with quarterback health baked in. If Oklahoma’s front keeps Missouri behind the sticks and Mateer manufactures on-schedule yards with his legs and timely throws, the Sooners can turn it into a field-position win and a comfortable fourth quarter. If Hardy pops explosives and Pribula looks close to 100%, it becomes a rock fight deep into the second half.

Projection: Oklahoma 24, Missouri 16