Pre-Snap Read: Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss
The final Saturday of October brings a top-20 showdown in Norman as No. 13 Oklahoma (6–1, 2–1 SEC) hosts No. 8 Ole Miss (6–1, 3–1 SEC) in an 11:00 a.m. CT (ABC) tilt from Gaylord Family–Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
The Sooners are back on track after a 26–7 win at South Carolina, while Ole Miss is fresh off its first loss of the year— a 43–35 thriller at Georgia—and now hits the road again. Oklahoma is sitting right around a 5.5 point favorite ahead of this game and will look to get to 7-1 before its toughest road stretch of the year.
Here’s what to watch as the Sooners take on the Rebels.
OU Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
What to watch: Early-Down Rhythm and Efficiency in the Red Zone
Oklahoma’s been automatic inside the 20—a perfect 100% with most trips ending in six—and that finishing power matters against an Ole Miss defense that’s allowing points on 82% of opponent red-zone drives. The hinge is third down: OU sits at 42.7% while Rebel opponents are at 35.6%, so Ben Arbuckle’s opening script needs to keep John Mateer in third-and-manageable and out of Pete Golding’s pressure kitchen.
Tempo can help, too; Ole Miss is flagged for 69.0 penalty yards per game, and if OU nudges the pace and stresses substitutions, free yards follow. Outside, it’s an explosives exam: the Rebels give up only 195.6 passing yards per game but have just three interceptions on the year—if safeties dive on the run, Mateer will get one-on-one shots to JaVonnie Gibson and company. All of that assumes the pocket holds; OU has allowed 2.2 sacks per game, and keeping Mateer clean is non-negotiable because Ole Miss’s best pass-rush outings have flipped fields and momentum in a hurry.
OU Defense vs. Ole Miss Offense
What to watch: Keeping Ole Miss Off Balance on Early Downs
Ole Miss brings a true pick-your-poison attack, averaging 491.9 yards and 37.4 points per game with real balance—304.1 through the air and 187.7 on the ground—which demands disciplined fits and a top-down plan outside. Trinidad Chambliss is completing 62.6% with 1,549 yards, 8 touchdowns, and just one pick, and he’s got vertical juice in Dae’Quan Wright (20.7 yards a catch) and Harrison Wallace III (19.1); miss a tackle and it avalanches.
The downhill hammer is Kewan Lacy (618 yards, 10 scores, 88.3 per game), so OU’s interior has to win early, or play-action gets nasty in a hurry. The good news: Oklahoma’s defensive floor has been elite through seven games. The Sooners are allowing just 211.2 yards a game, with opponents converting 25.6% on third down—that’s how you drag a track-meet offense into a rock fight. And because Ole Miss lives fast, they could find themselves in a game where OU’s defense actually controls the tempo. If Venables’ group can stack first-down stops and turn those quick drives into punts, and not points, it could be trouble for an Ole Miss team that’s had its way offensively thus far.
Oklahoma’s X-Factor: Field Position & Hidden Yards
Field position could end up being the quiet hinge. When Oklahoma starts drives near midfield, Ben Arbuckle’s group cashes those short fields with touchdowns—and the Sooners have been ruthless once they get close, scoring on all 23 red-zone trips with 18 of them ending in touchdowns. The hidden-yard edge shows up everywhere: OU is out-punting opponents 46.4 to 42.6 yards per kick and has forced nearly seven opponent punts per game (47 in seven contests) while punting only four times per game themselves (28 total). Isaiah Sategna III’s 11.2 yards per punt return keeps those flips coming, and Tate Sandell’s 55% touchback rate on kickoffs shrinks return chances before they start. Add in a relatively controlled 58.9 penalty yards per game, and it’s easy to see how Oklahoma has managed the “hidden yards” column in each of its six wins.
Ole Miss can blunt that advantage, though: the Rebels punt it 46.5 yards on average and have allowed just 5.4 yards per opponent punt return, so OU’s coverage and return units need to at least break even to keep the field tilted in their favor.
Must-Win Matchup: OU’s DL vs. Ole Miss OL
The game tilts on the big men. Oklahoma’s defensive line is the single best unit on the field—deep, nasty, and built to win downs in sequence. If Jayden Jackson, David Stone, and Damonic Williams own the interior, they suffocate Kewan Lacy’s steady 4.5 yards per rush and push Trinidad Chambliss into obvious passing spots. That, of course, unleashes a Sooners’ pass rush that leads the nation in sacks this year.
That said, this isn’t a mismatch—Ole Miss’s offensive line has been legit, allowing just seven sacks all year and creating enough vertical running lanes to force honest fits from previous opponents.
This is strength on strength. If OU can collapse things from the inside out, they’ll dictate the play-calling and tempo, but if they lose the interior, the Rebels can keep their entire playbook open for Chambliss and company.
Opponent Overview: What Ole Miss Must Do to Win
- Hit Explosives, Limit Turnovers: Ole Miss averages 9.59 yards per pass attempt, so chunk plays are there—but not if a -4 turnover margin gives OU short fields.
- Stay On Schedule On Third Down: The Rebels convert on 51.7% of third down attempts (14th nationally); anything close to that pace stretches OU’s defense across 12–14 drives instead of 9–10.
- Cash In The Red Zone: Ole Miss has points on 89.5% of trips (26 TDs, 8 FGs in 38). Beating this OU defense requires touchdowns, not threes.
- Play a Clean Game: At 69 penalty yards per game (118th nationally), Ole Miss has been pretty sloppy with the flags. Against an OU defense, those can be drive-killers—especially on the road.
Final Thoughts
This is a style clash: OU’s control and defensive consistency vs. Ole Miss’s pace and explosives. If Oklahoma wins first down on defense and keeps the turnover ledger neutral, Arbuckle’s offense should have enough possessions to land the last punch. With what we saw from Oklahoma’s rushing attack last weekend, I’d expect the Sooners to take the downhill, clock-chewing approach. If Tory Blaylock can carve up the Rebels’ defense, which ranks 112th with 4.72 yards per carry, the Sooners should have some balance to work with offensively.
However, that hasn’t been a given at all this season, and a stagnant rushing attack here could be lethal. Combine that with the Rebels landing multiple 30-plus-yard shots and a stolen possession here or there, and there’s trouble. My gut says the Sooners find a way to get it done, though.
Projection: Oklahoma 27, Ole Miss 20