Pre-Snap Read: Oklahoma vs. Texas
The second Saturday in October is upon us, which means it’s time for the 121st edition of the Red River Rivalry.
Oklahoma enters at 5–0 and ranked No. 6 nationally, while Texas has slipped to 3–2 and out of the AP Top 25 after last week’s loss at Florida. Kickoff is 2:30 p.m. CT at the Cotton Bowl.
Despite OU’s unbeaten start, oddsmakers have generally listed this as a razor-thin line with Texas a slight favorite. Meanwhile, John Mateer (hand) is probable to return, setting up a pivotal decision at quarterback on Saturday.
Here’s what to watch as the Sooners take on the Longhorns:
OU Offense vs. Texas Defense
What to Watch: John Mateer’s Effectiveness
With Mateer trending toward playing after missing Kent State, OU’s plan should balance early run calls with controlled downfield shots to settle him in. If Mateer’s grip strength and timing look right, OU offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle can lean into the play-action and deep crossers that he loves to utilize. However, if it’s clear that he’s limited, I’d expect a heavier dose of the ground game, which could spell trouble with how inefficient the Sooners’ running game has been. Either way, the Sooners’ efficiency on early downs will decide whether they can keep Texas out of its pressure looks, and keep the pocket clean enough to allow Mateer to deliver the ball effectively.
Fortunately for them, Texas’ defense has been uneven and has struggled to cover for an offense that’s put it in bad spots. The Longhorns just allowed 29 points in The Swamp and needed a career day (14 tackles) from Anthony Hill Jr. to hang around. If OU avoids negative plays and protects the ball, Texas will be forced to defend the full array of Oklahoma’s arsenal — likely including our first look at Javonnie Gibson as a starter. Look for OU to test Texas’ inside fits and then hunt matchups outside if safeties creep too far into the run fit.
OU Defense vs. Texas Offense
What to Watch: OU Defensive Line vs. Texas Offensive Line
This is the swing battle. Florida sacked Arch Manning six times and repeatedly got home with four-man pressure. Meanwhile, Texas’ net run game faltered to the point that Manning led the team with just 37 rushing yards. If Damonic Williams, Jayden Jackson, and the OU front win on first down, Brent Venables can unleash simulated pressures and make Manning process under duress. Collapsing the pocket and constricting interior lanes will be the top priority for Oklahoma’s front, and to this point, they’ve done that exceedingly well.
OU arrives in Dallas with some serious team momentum, as the defense has carried a playoff-caliber floor so far. If the Sooners squeeze Texas’s zone run game and keep the QB in long-yardage spots, explosive plays should be limited to contested shots — exactly where OU wants this.
Oklahoma’s X-Factor: The Running Back Room
This game likely swings on OU’s ability to generate efficient, physical yardage on the ground—notice I didn’t say explosive. If the combination of Tory Blaylock, Jovantae Barnes, and a suddenly resurgent Jadyn Ott can churn out 4–5 yards on early downs, Mateer’s return becomes a force multiplier instead of a question mark — and Texas’ defense has to pick its poison. Given the success that Florida’s offense found last week, that’s a win for Arbuckle and Mateer.
Must-Win Matchup: OU’s Wide Receivers vs. Texas Defensive Backs
Assuming the run game buys favorable leverage, OU’s wideouts must win the one-on-ones. With Javonnie Gibson back in the rotation and Isaiah Sategna emerging as a real weapon in the intermediate, this could be the first game that we see Oklahoma’s passing game at full-tilt (given Mateer can throw it effectively). With more than a couple vertical threats available, Oklahoma has the length and ball skills to stress Texas on the perimeter. Texas’ DBs will attempt to reroute and disrupt timing, but if OU’s receivers create clean separation and find space to operate, chunk gains will follow — and so will pressure for Arch to keep pace.
Opponent Overview: What Texas Must Do to Win
Protect Arch Manning: After six sacks at Florida, Texas must stabilize its protections and avoid obvious passing downs.
Find a Running Game: Manning led UT in rushing last week — that can’t repeat. Texas needs something, even if it’s QB keepers and perimeter screens masquerading as a run game.
Steal possessions: field position, a gadget, or an early takeaway regularly plays a pivotal role in this game.
Finish drives: red-zone touchdowns, not field goals — especially against a defense that’s been incredibly stingy through five games.
Final Thoughts
OU has the cleaner profile: No. 6, 5–0, a defense traveling, and a QB likely back to steady the ship. Texas has talent — and urgency — but until protection and the run game stabilize, the Sooners hold more answers at the line of scrimmage. If OU runs with intent and Mateer is even close to himself, the Golden Hat should head back north.
Projection: Oklahoma 27, Texas 17