Why Texas Tech Has the Roster, Depth, and Coaching to Steamroll the Big 12 in 2025

A couple of weeks ago, I laid out all the reasons Texas Tech won’t win the Big 12 title in 2025, fun reading, I know. I debated whether to write the flip side of that argument, but as I revisited my original piece, it hit me: while I still have real concerns about the schedule, much of the “doom and gloom” is every bit as speculative as the optimistic takes… if not more so.

1. Returning Production + Transfers

Texas Tech’s transfer class has rightfully gotten a lot of buzz, but it’s also overshadowed just how strong the core of impact returners really is. The beauty of this portal strategy is that it wasn’t about overhauling the roster like Deion did at Colorado; it was about plugging a few obvious holes because the rest of the roster was already stocked with some good players.

According to Pick Six, an analytics service generously provided to me by the great @C. Level, the Red Raiders return 70% of their offensive production from 2024 (19th in Division I) and 76% of their defensive production (5th in Division I). The best part? Outside of guys like Behren, Coy, Caleb Douglas, and JRod, the transfer additions have pushed many “returning production” guys down to depth roles.

That’s not the kind of roster we’ve grown used to at Texas Tech. In the past, we were crossing our fingers that a square peg in a round hole wouldn’t be a disaster. This year, we’re looking at players who contributed last season being slotted into the third unit. That’s the kind of depth championship teams have.

Below is the chart Pick Six put out analyzing the talent on the depth chart.

2. Complimentary Football

Whether you were a truther about last year’s offense or not, we can all agree on one thing: complementary football was not a strength for Texas Tech in 2024. You didn’t even need advanced stats to see it, just look at the box scores. When the offense clicked, the defense disappeared. When the defense showed up, the offense couldn’t sustain a drive.

While digging through Brian Fremeau’s BCFToys analytics website, (as one does on a slow afternoon), one stat jumped out at me. In 2024, Houston’s defense had a Busted Drive Rate, the percentage of non-garbage, regulation opponent drives held to zero or fewer yards, of .161, good for 16th nationally. Texas Tech’s was .129, ranking 45th. That was easily last year’s defensive strength, and it matched what we saw on the field, opponents either scored or went three-and-out. It was the gamble DeRuyter took with that dumpster-fire situation, and it’s probably the only reason we saw even moderate success.

Why that matters for 2025? This year’s offense is built to jump on teams fast and never let up. Give us the ball a couple of times in quick succession, and you might be staring at a 21–0 deficit before you’ve even settled into your seat.

Mack Leftwich’s Texas State offense in 2024 ranked 2nd in First Down Rate, 9th in Points Per Drive, 10th in Touchdown Rate, and 11th in Busted Drive Rate. In other words, it was efficient, explosive, and always threatening to run the touchdown play. Combine that with a defense capable of forcing quick-change possessions, and you can see how perfectly the strengths of these two coordinators align.

3. Hidden Yards

One thing that’s driven me crazy throughout the McGuire era is the apparent lack of interest in field position. I’m not just talking about the fourth-down calls, which I often like, but also smaller decisions, like returning kickoffs instead of simply taking the ball at the 25.

For context, Net Starting Field Position (NFP) measures the difference between where your offense starts and where your opponent’s offense starts on non-garbage drives. Net Possession Value (NPS) tracks the scoring value of those possessions. Here’s where Texas Tech has ranked:

• 2024: NFP: –0.7 (73rd) | NPS: 0.00 (65th)
• 2023: NFP: 2.4 (32nd) | NPS: 0.03 (59th)
• 2022: NFP: –3.2 (111th) | NPS: –0.23 (116th)

The 2023 jump came thanks to Drae McCray’s return magic, but the numbers still weren’t where you want them.

Here’s the real point, Texas Tech has been relatively successful these past three seasons while fighting an uphill battle. They didn’t have the overall team talent to just line up and beat the league’s best. To make up for that, they leaned on variance, going for it on 4th down, returning kicks, blitzing at risky times. It worked occasionally, but you can’t build a sustained winner that way.

The best way to sustain success is to have the best roster, and now Texas Tech does. The starting 22 will arguably be better than any team they face, but more importantly, for the first time in a long, long time, Tech has quality depth everywhere. That depth matters on special teams, where “real” players will take those snaps. It also means they won’t need to manufacture chaos with high-variance calls.

If that happens, Tech should finish in the top 20 in both starting field position and starting field position value. And if they do, this season won’t feel like an uphill climb—it’ll feel like steamrolling inferior teams on the way to a Big 12 title.

Conclusion

So, yeah, start printing the shirts.