A dangerous proposition: Breaking down the Kalshi controversy
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Since 2018, it has been legal to bet on College Sports in the United States. Aside from a few NCAA athletes being caught placing bets, the legalization of sports betting has not affected the integrity of the games. But now, thanks to a new phenomenon known as predictive market betting, that integrity could be in jeopardy if the powers that be don’t act.
On Wednesday, Ingame reported that Kalshi, a predictive betting market, filed forms with the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The purpose of the filing? A platform where users can place bets and trade bets on NCAA athletes entering/exiting the transfer portal. Not surprisingly, the NCAA issued a statement strongly opposing the field and cited concerns that player safety could be threatened and the integrity of NCAA Athletics could be compromised.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ncaa-kalshi-prediction-market-transfer-portal
I’ll be completely honest. Before seeing this announcement, I knew absolutely nothing about Kalshi. I use platforms like Bet MGM and DraftKings, but it’s usually a simple over/under or money-line bet—simple bets for a simple man.
After some research, here’s some information about Kalshi and why its new transfer portal predictive market is so controversial.
What is Kalshi?
According to its website, Kalshi is a gambling platform where users can place wagers and trade wagers on the outcomes of real-world events. The events can include world events, economic trends, company performance, outbreaks of illnesses, the release of inventions or products, and celebrity awards or milestones. Every single contract maxes out at one dollar, but there is no limit on the number of single contracts or “Event Contracts” that a user can buy.
https://news.kalshi.com/p/glossary-predictionmarket
With the popularity of NCAA Sports, Kalshi has entered the NCAA sports betting landscape. The transfer portal is scheduled to open on January 2, 2026, and Kalshi’s latest filing signals its intent to profit from the chaos of the NIL era. While this development may seem harmless and no different from standard wagers on an NCAA game, these new betting forms could cause a host of problems if Kalshi and its soon-to-follow competitors are permitted to proceed.
Here are some of my biggest concerns about Kalshi and similar platforms.
Already known outcomes
Unlike an over/under bet, a bet on point spreads, a money line bet, or a futures bet on an NCAA team’s wins or losses, players who enter the NCAA transfer portal usually know exactly where they will end up. In other words, the players and their entourages already know the outcome. When several people already know the result of an event, there is significant potential for corruption given the certainty involved.
One of the best things about sports is the unpredictability and uncertainty of game outcomes. A basketball team could get hot from three-point range out of nowhere. An offensive juggernaut in football could have trouble moving the ball. Two defensive football teams could get into a shootout. That uncertainty is what makes the fan experience so much fun.
With Kalshi’s proposed bet contracts on players entering the transfer portal and their destinations, the bets now hinge on an event where several people already know the outcome. Bets like this put the integrity of College Sports in jeopardy and could turn the elements of the NCAA into the WWE, pure entertainment with predetermined outcomes.
A potential return to schools illegally paying students
With NIL, the NCAA finally moved past the old days when blueblood programs would illegally pay players under the table to play sports. At the same time, there are still some shenanigans here and there, but the days of secret meetings with boosters and wads of cash after games are largely gone. Kalshi’s new platform puts that progress at risk.
While coaches, team staff, and players cannot bet on Kalshi, there is one glaring omission: boosters. Although under-the-table cash payments are mostly gone, tampering remains rampant in College Sports. The lack of any restrictions against boosters is exceptionally troublesome.
What is to stop a booster or member of a Collective from throwing a ton of under-the-table money at a player and then buying several event contracts on that same player to come to a school on Kalshi? What is stopping boosters or Collective members from insider trading when a player enters the transfer portal? A booster could easily use their inside information to short the market. The potential for information abuse is too great, and College Sports could return to the days of under-the-table payments and undo years of progress.
Organized crime concerns
Kalshi’s business model with transfer portal bets would make Tony Soprano salivate, Vito Corleone raise an eyebrow, Whitey Bulger’s jaw drop, and Goodefellas’ Henry Hill make plans to visit every SEC and Big Ten campus to magically bump into players.
Speaking of Henry Hill, the real Henry Hill helped organize an infamous point-shaving scheme for Boston College’s Men’s Basketball team between 1978 and 1979. This type of scheme could be easily applied to athletes entering or exiting the portal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978–79_Boston_College_basketball_point-shaving_scandal
Kalshi’s new betting model is a dream come true for mobsters as savvy as Hill. With young, vulnerable college students looking to make money or with vices of their own, players could be manipulated by organized crime and be under their control. Nobody wants New York’s Five Families, the Irish Mob, or the Russian Mob deciding college games. Could you imagine a playoff or tournament game decided on a mobster’s whim or to settle some power struggle? Without government intervention, we could be heading down this slippery slope with Kalshi.
Player safety
Another significant concern with Kalshi’s proposed betting platform is player safety. Since NCAA betting has become legal, players have received threats on social media and directly from fans during games. A predictive outcome market like Kalshi, with transfer-portal bets, will only increase threats, especially if shady characters get involved.
What is to stop a spiteful fan or gambler from trying to harm a player to win a bet? And what is to prevent criminals from acting if their demands aren’t met? As I mentioned above, because the player and those in their entourage usually know where they will end up, more individuals with knowledge create more opportunities for people with bad intentions to act.
The wolf is in the field
Oftentimes, the NCAA has cried wolf with some of the changes to College Athletics in the NIL and transfer portal window. However, this time, the wolf is real. This is not a player suing for a fifth year of eligibility. This is not a player trying to enforce their NIL deal. This is not a player rightfully trying to maximize their net worth while their school makes money hand over fist.
Kalshi and similar platforms are a real threat to College Sports as we know them. If Kalshi is allowed to proceed, much of what we love about these sports will be ruined and dead and gone. The NCAA needs to keep its foot on the gas and keep pounding the table on this issue. And the powers that be in our government need to listen. Otherwise, we could all suffer.
Don Corleone makes for an entertaining movie character, but an awful and ugly reality. Kalshi has placed its offer on the table. Soon enough, its competitors will do the same. It’s high time these offers get refused.
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