Future Opponent Game to Watch: Texas vs Mississippi State

On Saturday afternoon at 3:15 Central Time, No. 22 Texas (5-2) takes on Mississippi State (4-3) in Starkville. For both teams, the 2025 season has been a frustrating affair. Here’s where both teams stand coming into Saturday’s game. 

A tale of the tape: Texas 

The Texas Longhorns entered the season as a favorite to win the College Football Playoff, and quarterback Arch Manning was on many pundits’ Heisman Trophy lists. Since the Longhorns’ 14-7 loss to Ohio State, things have mainly gone downhill for Texas, whose offense has looked completely disjointed at times. 

So far in 2025, Arch Manning has a 60% completion percentage, 12 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and 1,449 yards. Unlike his uncles, Manning is a mobile quarterback and has 58 carries for 193 yards and 5 touchdowns. In Power 4 competition this season, the only game in which Manning had a positive touchdown-to-interception ratio was Texas’ win against Oklahoma on October 11th, when he threw for 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. In all other Power 4 games this year, Manning has been unable to break even in those categories. 

At receiver, Texas is led by the trio of Ryan Wingo, Parker Livingstone, and DeAndre Moore Jr. Wingo has 24 catches for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns, Livingstone has 15 catches, 308 yards, and 3 touchdowns, and Moore has 20 catches for 277 yards and 1 touchdown. In the run game, Manning and Quintrevion Wisner lead Texas. Wisner has 58 carries for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns this season. The lack of explosive plays for Wisner has been concerning, as the sophomore averages just 3.8 yards per carry. 

According to Teamrankings.com, Texas is ranked 86th nationally in red zone scoring percentage, converting on 80% of red zone attempts with field goals or touchdowns. On third down, Texas ranks 81st, converting 38.14% of its down attempts. In fourth down conversion situations, the Longhorns are ranked 107th and are converting just 41.67% of their offensive fourth down attempts. In short, while Texas’ red zone numbers are not awful, scoring opportunities come at a premium because the Longhorns struggle to move the football. 

Defensively, the Longhorn defense has put up respectable numbers with 21 total sacks, 9 interceptions, and 4 fumbles recovered. Texas’ pass rush is led by linebacker Colin Simmons, who has 7 sacks on the year so far to go with 19 total tackles and 1 forced fumble. The Longhorns have a trio of gifted tacklers in defensive back Michael Taafe, linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., and defensive back Jelani McDonald with 51, 50, and 38 total tackles, respectively. Texas’ secondary is led by McDonald, defensive back Graceson Littleton, and defensive back Malik Muhammad, all of whom have 2 interceptions apiece. 

According to Teamrankings.com, Texas ranks 24th in opponents’ interception percentage at 3.90 and 30th in team sack percentage at 7.60%. The Longhorn defense is particularly stout in the red zone, ranking 8th in opponent red-zone scoring percentage, with opponents scoring just 72.73% of their opportunities. On opponent third-down conversion percentage, Texas is ranked 17th, with opponents converting only 31.43% of their third-down attempts. When opponents are trying to convert fourth-down attempts, Texas ranks 5th, with opponents converting only 25% of their fourth-down attempts. 

Texas would be among the best teams in the country if it had a functional offense. When Texas has been scored on this season, it has been because of the ineptitude of the Longhorn’s offense and the defense being on the field for far too long. A good example of Texas’ defense’s potential is the Longhorns’ suffocation of the Oklahoma offense earlier this season. While Manning’s defenders have blamed the lack of offense on Head Coach Steve Sarkisian, Manning’s inability to make routine throws has doomed Texas on several occasions this season. 

A tale of the tape: Mississippi State 

The Bulldogs enter Saturday having already doubled their win total from last season. The problem for Mississippi State is that it has let multiple games slip away this season. While bowl eligibility is still within reach for State, it will need to play cleaner football than it has so far this season. 

Quarterback Blake Shapen leads the Bulldogs with a 67 completion percentage, 9 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and 1,525 passing yards so far in 2025. While Shapen has 1 rushing touchdown, he is no threat as a runner, averaging just 0.3 yards per carry. Shapen’s best game this season came against No. 12 Arizona State University, when he threw for 3 touchdowns and 279 yards in an upset win over the Sun Devils. In SEC play so far, Shapen has struggled to protect the football, throwing 1 interception in each game against Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Florida. 

In the passing game, State is led by Brennen Thompson, who has 29 catches for 533 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Bulldogs have also gotten strong production from Anthony Evans III and Seydou Traore. Evans has 42 catches for 471 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Traore has 13 catches for 160 yards and 3 touchdowns. 

Mississippi State’s run game is led by backs Davon Booth and Fluff Bothwell. With Bothwell still listed on the injury report after being carted off the field with an unspecified injury against Texas A&M and unlikely to play tomorrow, Booth remains the leading back heading into the weekend. So far in 2025, Bothwell has 465 yards on 85 carries (good for 5.5 yards per carry) with 6 touchdowns, and Booth has 81 carries for 371 yards and 6 touchdowns. The third back for State is Xavier Gayten, who has 14 carries for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns. 

According to Teamrankings.com, State ranks 55th in offensive team red zone scoring percentage, with the Bulldogs converting 86.36% of their red zone attempts. On team third-down conversion percentage, the Bulldogs rank 47th and have converted 42.35% of their third-down attempts. The Bulldogs rank 49th in team fourth-down conversion percentage, converting 60% of their fourth-down opportunities. The Bulldogs by no means have an elite offense, but when they take care of the football, they give themselves a chance to move the ball and score. 

On defense, State boasts a modest pass rush with only 10 sacks this season, but a ball-hawking secondary with 10 interceptions. Safety Jahron Manning, linebacker Nic Mitchell, safety Isaac Smith, and safety Brylan Lanier lead the Bulldogs. Manning has 46 tackles and 1 interception, Mitchell has 36 total tackles, Smith has 34 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 interception, and Lanier has 32 tackles, 1 sack, and 3 interceptions. 

The Bulldogs rank 7th in opponent interceptions thrown percentage with 4.92% this season. In opponent red zone scoring percentage, State ranks 75th with opponents converting 85.71% of their red zone attempts. When opponents go for it on third down, State is ranked 45th, with opponents converting 36.59% of third-down attempts, and 38th in opponent fourth-down conversion percentage, with opponents converting 45.45% of their attempts. 

A tough SEC road game test for Arch Manning 

Saturday’s matchup is Arch Manning’s first true road test as a starting quarterback in the SEC. The Starkville faithful will be rowdy and clanging their famous cowbells throughout the game. With all of Arch’s potential, Mississippi State presents the perfect type of defense to force Manning to throw into tight windows and induce turnovers. Arch has struggled to string together completions this season, and if he is not careful on Saturday, he could throw multiple interceptions against a feisty Bulldogs secondary. If Arch elects to run, it could cause problems for the Bulldog defense, which ranks 101st in opponent rushing yards per game, allowing 181 yards per contest. 

Despite all the hype, Manning has yet to have a breakout game against a Power 4 opponent this year. Regardless of State’s record, Starkville is a difficult place to play. Manning’s mental toughness will be tested this weekend, and his ability to withstand the noise and protect the football could decide the game. 

Can Texas’s offense finally start to click?

Texas’ offense has yet to have a complete game in both the run and the passing categories. Could Saturday be the day that the Longhorns turn in their best performance of the year? It will all start with the running game. Good teams can run the ball on the road. If Wisner can string together some big runs and Manning adds some chunk plays, it would take some severe pressure off the passing game. If Texas is forced to throw the ball for the majority of the game, it could be a long Saturday for Texas. 

Can the Bulldogs take care of the football? 

Shapen has thrown five interceptions this season, nearly the total number of games State has played all year. If State can take care of the ball, it has a chance to pull off the upset against Texas. However, if the Bulldogs give Texas a short field and change to score off turnovers, this game could get lopsided quickly. 

Prediction 

Arch Manning struggles throwing the ball in Starkville and throws some costly interceptions. Mississippi State wins an ugly game 21-17.