Preview: No. 15 Missouri vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt vs. Missouri: Game Preview (October 25, 2025)
Vanderbilt’s impressive 6–1 start will be tested this weekend in Nashville as the Commodores host the No. 15 Missouri Tigers in a pivotal SEC matchup. Both teams come in with identical 6–1 records and top-25 metrics across multiple efficiency indicators, setting up what should be one of Week 9’s most balanced contests.
Team Overview and Efficiency Profiles
Missouri (6–1, 2–1 SEC) enters ranked eighth nationally in Net EPA/Play (+0.29) and sixth in Net EPA/Drive (+1.68). The Tigers’ defense has been the backbone of their success, ranking 21st in overall defensive EPA (−0.11) and 18th in success rate (36.3%). Their secondary has been particularly stingy, holding opponents to a 33.3% passing success rate (8th nationally), while their rush defense ranks 69th (allowing 39.8% completion rate).
Vanderbilt (6–1, 2–1 SEC) counters with one of the nation’s most efficient offenses. The Commodores rank 8th in offensive EPA (0.28) and 5th in offensive EPA per drive (1.57), trailing only a handful of national contenders. Their 52.2% offensive success rate (ranked #2 nationally) stems from a balanced approach, ranking #5 in passing success (53.2%) and #3 in rushing success (51.3%). However, their defense remains a vulnerability at #113 in EPA allowed (+0.04).
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Missouri Defense
This will be strength-on-strength. Vanderbilt’s early-down EPA (0.23, #4) and 58% third-down conversion rate (#2) will challenge a Missouri defense that thrives in limiting early-down EPA (−0.10, #28) and allows only 31.8% conversions (#10). Missouri’s defensive structure thrives in the red zone and on long-yardage downs, but Vanderbilt has maintained short 3rd-down distances (6.41 yards on average, #24 nationally) that help sustain drives.
Missouri Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
Missouri’s balanced offense, ranking #12 in rushing EPA (0.17) and #33 in passing EPA (0.19), faces a Vanderbilt defense that is #92 against the pass and #16 against the run. Quarterback Beau Pribula (1,692 yards, 70.1% completion, 11 TD, 7 INT, 146.0 rating) has been efficient but turnover-prone at times. The Tigers’ rushing attack, led by Ahmad Hardy (840 yards, 6.0 YPC, 11 TD) and Jamal Roberts (406 yards, 7.3 YPC), is one of the most productive in the conference.
Vanderbilt’s defensive front, anchored by an improving run unit, will need to limit explosive plays, particularly early in drives, where Missouri averages 0.15 EPA/play (#18).
Field Position and Efficiency Edges
Vanderbilt holds a significant advantage in Net Field Position (+6.5 yards, #6 nationally) while Missouri ranks #97 (−1.2). That could tilt hidden yardage and short-field scoring opportunities toward the Commodores, especially if their special teams continue to flip the field.
