Preview: No. 17 Vanderbilt vs No. 10 LSU
Vanderbilt returns home in Week 8 with a chance to legitimize its national ranking against No. 10 LSU (5-1). The Commodores enter the matchup as a quiet favorite in the advanced-metrics world, holding a 63.6 percent win probability and a projected 26.9 points according to StatsOWar, while LSU’s projection sits at 36.4 percent and 19.4 points.
The Efficiency Gap
On paper, Vanderbilt’s underlying numbers tell a story of sustained precision. The Commodores rank 7th nationally in EPA margin (+0.383) and 2nd in offensive EPA/play (+0.278), driven by one of the nation’s most balanced success-rate profiles, 53.5 percent on dropbacks and 54.6 percent on rushing plays. LSU, by comparison, ranks 25th in EPA margin (+0.214) but a full ten points lower in offensive success rate (43.1 percent).
Where Vanderbilt has separated from opponents is on early downs: the Commodores sit 23rd in the country in early-down EPA (+0.293), consistently setting up manageable third-downs where they convert 57.6 percent of 3rd/4th-down attempts. LSU’s defense, while athletic, has allowed opponents a 53.8 percent quality-drive rate, indicating sustained drives rather than explosive failures.
LSU’s Offensive Identity
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has provided stability through the air, completing 66 percent of passes for 1,413 yards, 9 TDs, and 5 INTs. LSU’s passing EPA (+0.103 per dropback) ranks a solid 37th, but its rushing EPA (+0.012, 56th)and rush success rate (40.8 percent, 118th nationally) lag well behind.
That imbalance makes freshman running back Caden Durham’s efficiency critical; his 4.2 yards per carry and burst potential (51-yard long) could loosen Vanderbilt’s top-20 defense in success rate allowed (38.9 percent). In the receiving corps, Aaron Anderson (305 yards) and Barion Brown (261 yards) headline an explosive but young group that relies heavily on yards after catch. LSU’s best chance lies in spacing Vanderbilt’s linebackers horizontally, an area where opponents have found modest gains.
Vanderbilt’s Offense vs. LSU’s Defense
Clark Lea’s offense continues to rank among the nation’s most efficient units, 55 percent success rate (2nd nationally), with quarterback Diego Pavia distributing the ball across multiple playmakers. Vanderbilt ranks 2nd in offensive EPA, 6th in net points per drive (1.85), and 2nd in quality-drive ratio (52.8 percent), underscoring its ability to sustain possessions and finish them.
LSU’s defense has flashed star power. Harold Perkins Jr. (2 sacks, 27 tackles) and West Weeks (team-leading 40 tackles), but the group’s -0.168 EPA/dropback suggests vulnerability against accurate short passing attacks. Vanderbilt’s offense thrives on exploiting that very profile, ranking 3rd nationally in dropback EPA (+0.281) and showing elite consistency on RPO concepts.
Defensive Chess Match
LSU’s defensive EPA margin remains respectable (9th overall at -0.161), thanks to red-zone stops and timely turnovers. Safety Tamarcus Cooley (2 INTs) and A.J. Haulcy provide coverage stability, but the Tigers’ third-down success rate allowed (35.8 percent) could be tested by Vanderbilt’s rhythm passing and tempo.
LSU’s defense, led by Mansoor Delane and A.J. Haulcy in the back end, sits 25th nationally in defensive EPA (-0.105) and thrives on forcing inefficient downs. LSU’s offensive success rate drops to 45 percent in quality drives, and its 2.27 points per quality drive rank just 124th in FBS, highlighting its red-zone inconsistencies.
Advanced metrics and on-field trends align: Vanderbilt’s offensive efficiency and depth give it a slight edge, particularly if LSU’s ground game remains pedestrian. Expect the Commodores to use tempo, motion, and balanced play-calling to keep LSU chasing from behind.
