The Tulsa Preview

There was a time in the not-too-distant past when Tulsa football was on a roll. In the decade from 2007 to 2016, the Golden Hurricane had five seasons with 10 or more wins under three different head coaches. The 2016 team had two 1,000-yard rushers and two 1,000-yard receivers, with quarterback Dane Evans throwing for 32 touchdowns. Not bad for a school where it has traditionally been tough to win.

It all feels like a long time ago now. Tulsa has suffered through six losing seasons since that 2016 campaign, and now they’re on their third coach. Such is life for too many programs nowadays. For programs with money —specifically, NIL money — there is a measure of stability. Everyone else is playing a different game. Hiring a coach is less about program-building and more about catching lightning in a bottle, getting the “next big thing” while he’s still on the rise, all while rebuilding the roster every year.

Such is the case with Tulsa, and sure enough, they may have indeed found the next big thing in head coach Tre Lamb. Lamb is only 35, making him one of the youngest coaches in FBS. That in itself isn’t too unusual; like I said, young up-and-comers are all the rage lately. What’s unusual about Lamb is that he’s 35 and already on his third head coaching job. He came to Tulsa after one year at East Tennessee State, where he inherited a team that had back-to-back 3-8 seasons. He led them to a 7-5 record, which included a win over a ranked Western Carolina team and a game they probably should have won against North Dakota State. Before he landed at ETSU, Lamb was the head coach at Gardner-Webb, where he engineered another rapid turnaround. The Bulldogs had endured 13 losing seasons in the 16 years before Lamb arrived. By year three, Lamb had them in the FCS playoffs, and did it again the following season.

With that track record, it’s easy to see why Lamb was so appealing to Tulsa. He doesn’t wait to win. Rather than waiting for “his players,” he’s made the most out of whatever roster he inherited. In modern college football, where teams are rebuilt through the transfer portal every season, that kind of reputation is gold. And his early returns at Tulsa may suggest that he’s doing it again.

The Golden Hurricane enters Saturday’s game against Navy with a 1-1 record, sporting a 35-7 win over Abilene Christian and a 21-14 loss at New Mexico State. That loss to the Aggies probably shouldn’t have happened, though. Tulsa out-gained NMSU (376-291), averaged more per passing attempt, had fewer penalties, and held a 14-13 lead late in the fourth quarter. The most significant difference was in turnovers; Tulsa had two, New Mexico State had one. Both turnovers came in scoring territory — one in the end zone, the other on the potential tying drive at the end of the fourth quarter.

They’re the kinds of mistakes that become a learning experience. Lamb took the blame for the first of those INTs in his press conference this week, noting that quarterback Kirk Francis had a concussion at the time and he failed to recognize it. His replacement, redshirt freshman Baylor Hayes, had played well, completing 14 of his 17 passes for 135 yards and a touchdown. Francis had been the only returning starter from last year’s offense, and he’s one of only two offensive starters who aren’t in their first year at the school (right guard Ender Aguilar is in his second year after transferring from Cal). It will take time for this group of players to learn how to play as a unit, but once they do, the potential is there for an offensive renaissance.

Lamb has a history of big-time offense. His 2022 squad at Gardner-Webb was 18th in FCS in total offense with 441.5 yards per game. In his one year at ETSU, he led the 29th-best offensive unit, averaging 406.4 yards per game; the Bucs had ranked 111th in the country the previous year, averaging 271 yards per game. One-season turnarounds don’t intimidate Lamb, who has supreme confidence in his scheme.

So what makes it so effective? Tempo plays a part. At ETSU, Lamb’s offense ranked 27th in the country, averaging 68.7 plays per game. Tulsa has picked up the pace even more, averaging only 22.4 seconds per play, the 10th-fastest in the country. Lamb also likes to use different formations and motions to gain an advantage. Brian Newberry highlighted his use of formations into the boundary, lining up multiple receivers to the short side of the field. A fast tempo can force defenses to simplify. Defensive coordinators have less time to get calls in, which usually means sticking to base coverages and fronts instead of mixing looks or bringing complex pressures. It can also lead to communication mistakes. Lining up to the boundary can have a similar effect, changing how defenses fit running plays and forcing defenses to overcommit to a compressed part of the field. Lamb’s offenses attack defenses both mentally and schematically.

So far, early returns at Tulsa have been encouraging, with the offense averaging 437.5 yards per game. It’s pretty evenly split between the run and the pass, which adds to the mental stress on the defense. They aren’t necessarily a big-play offense, but when they see a defense getting sloppy, they’ll take their shots downfield. So far this season, they have 10 plays of 20+ yards. For context, Navy has 11.

Running back Dominic Richardson is emerging as a star. The redshirt senior, who has previous stops at NMSU, Baylor, and Oklahoma State, already has 235 yards on the ground in two games. Receiver Zion Booker has emerged as a dependable target and had nine catches last week, already putting him at 15 for the season. Tight end Brody Foley is used primarily as a blocker, but his 6-6, 260 frame makes him an ideal red zone target. He has two catches, both for touchdowns. There are playmakers on the Tulsa sideline.

One question mark this week may be at the quarterback position. With Francis’s concussion, Hayes is expected to start on Saturday night. In theory, there shouldn’t be much of a dropoff; Hayes is a transfer from ETSU, so he may even know the offense better than Francis. However, Hayes’ legs play a significant role in his effectiveness. While a running quarterback might be something that Navy hasn’t seen so far this season, there are some questions as to how much Tulsa will want Hayes to run due to their depth. The third-string quarterback is a former walk-on, and the #4 QB is a freshman who they’re hoping to keep off the field this year. Keeping Hayes healthy is crucial for Tulsa’s long-term goals.

The other side of the ball may be even more impressive. Statistically, Tulsa has dominated, especially against the run. The Golden Hurricane has allowed only 79.5 yards per game on the ground, including holding NMSU to a scant 1.5 yards per carry. They’ve already chalked up seven sacks, and defensive end Byron Turner Jr. ranks second in the nation with 3.5. Linebacker Ray Coney already has 22 tackles, pacing coordinator Josh Reardon‘s 4-2-5 scheme. Cornerback Elijah Green had seven tackles, a forced fumble, and a pass breakup last week to go along with the interception he grabbed in the opener.

Reardon has been Lamb’s defensive coordinator from the beginning, both at ETSU and Gardner-Webb. That gives him some unique experience, both against Drew Cronic and against option offenses in general. Cronic and Reardon faced each other twice while the former was Mercer‘s head coach. The Bears won both matchups, but they were very different contests. In 2022, it was a 45-14 Mercer victory. Mercer averaged 470 yards of offense per game that season, but Reardon’s defense limited them to 357. The following year, the two teams met in the FCS playoffs, and Mercer again prevailed, 17-7. In that game, the Bears were limited to one field goal in the second half and only 289 yards of offense. Gardner-Webb might have come up short, but you can’t say the defense didn’t play well.

Of course, this comes with caveats. Cronic was the head coach at Mercer, and while his team still ran a Wing-T-based offense, someone else was the offensive coordinator. Those offenses were not the same as what Navy runs now. In particular, there wasn’t nearly the same option influence. Reardon did face a more option-based scheme in 2021, when Gardner-Webb lost to Kennesaw State, led by former Navy assistants Brian Bohannon and Grant Chesnut, 34-30. Even in that game, though, he made the offense work for what they got, holding them to 208 on the ground. Regardless, it’s safe to say that there’s plenty of film to study.

In fact, one might wonder if there’s too much. In his weekly press conference, Lamb discussed his coordinator’s experience against the option, not only in the aforementioned games, but also against VMI (when they were an option team) and Wofford. Additionally, Reardon was an assistant at UConn when they faced the Mids in 2016. Lamb joked that he’ll have something different to show Cronic this weekend, and he probably will. There’s no telling what lessons Reardon took from all that experience.

While I’m sure Coach Cronic took his best guess for the game plan, this feels like one of those weeks where the Mids will have to throw that out the window once they see how the other team lines up. When that happens, they usually become more power-oriented, since that’s a staple against any defense. Play action should also be a factor; Mercer threw for 187 and three TDs in the 2022 game, while KSU was 12-14 for 209 yards and four TDs in 2021. That would make pass protection another key in this game, with a young offensive line battling a defense that so far has been successful in getting to quarterbacks.

This game is an excellent example of why it’s pointless to make projections before a season starts. Every team has new rosters, and half of them have new coaches. There are so many unknowns that you don’t know who will be good and who won’t. That isn’t to say that Navy won’t win this game, and maybe they’ll win it comfortably. They’re favored for a reason. But this could also be a trap. This is Navy’s first game on the road. They have new faces at linebacker and in the secondary, facing a unique offense that tests alignment and communication. They have an offensive line that features moving pieces, taking on a defensive line that generates sacks. To me, that adds up to a game that will be harder than the experts think.