State of Play: The key to Georgia's showdown against Ole Miss
From 2021-2022, Georgia rarely played from behind. This was a team that jumped out on opponents and was relentless for four quarters. In 2021, Georgia had the scrappy opener against Clemson, the SEC Championship Game loss to Alabama, and then a hard-fought national title game win over the Crimson Tide.
Otherwise, the Bulldogs blew everyone else out.
Similarly in 2022, Georgia had a comeback win over Missouri, a dogfight against Kentucky and an amazing rally in the Peach Bowl against Ohio State.
Otherwise, again, the Bulldogs blew everyone else out.
Those days are over. Over the past three seasons, with the transfer portal and NIL, there is better parity and fewer dominating performances. A year ago, Georgia’s margin of victory in its nine Power 4 wins was 12. This year, in three Power 4 wins, the margin of victory is 11.3. This season, Georgia has trailed at some point in three of the past four games. Based on how dominant Georgia was at the beginning of this decade, it’s easy to fall into the trap that Georgia should be whooping each non-Alabama opponent it faces.
The new reality is that games are going to be closer across the board. You’ll probably never see a team built like the 2021 and 2022 Georgia rosters again.
With player parity greatly improved, coaching decisions and game management are going to be even more important in this sport. Welcome to college football in 2025.
The key to the game
Saturday’s top-10 showdown between Georgia and Ole Miss will come down to turnovers and punts. Yes, how old-school of me to suggest as such. With two mobile quarterbacks, it won’t matter who plays the bulk of the game for Ole Miss. Conventional wisdom says Trinidad Chambliss, who has been a revelation for the Rebels, will start but could get pulled for Austin Simmons if he struggles. Assuming Georgia’s trend of not getting off the field continues, the Rebels will put up some points in the first half before the inevitable second-half adjustments.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia has a great matchup advantage in the run game. Therefore, which team can be more opportunistic than the other? In last year’s meeting, Georgia turned the ball over three times to Ole Miss’ one. The Bulldogs punted four times to the Rebels’ two. Those numbers contributed in a major way to Ole Miss winning 28-10.
This season, Georgia is minus-1 in turnover margin — although two of the interceptions came from backup quarterback Ryan Puglisi. One occurred in garbage time against Kentucky and the other was on an end-of-half Hail Mary throw against Tennessee. Ole Miss is minus-4 for the season, with Simmons throwing four interceptions and Chambliss throwing one pick.
While Georgia has the advantage in turnover margin, Ole Miss has punted 16 times to Georgia’s 21. This will be a critical aspect of Saturday’s game.
A potential X-factor?
Georgia hasn’t utilized tight end Elyiss Williams much. The third-string tight end has recorded stats in only two games and saw three snaps against Auburn. However, at 6-foot-6 and 255 pounds, Williams, the nation’s top tight end prospect in the class of 2025, offers an excellent matchup against the Ole Miss linebackers and nickel defenders.
If the opportunity presents itself, perhaps offensive coordinator Mike Bobo will dial up some plays for the talented freshman.
SEC Everest
Chasing the summit: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia
A camp behind: LSU, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Texas
Advanced base camp: No one
Base camp: South Carolina, Florida
The worst kind of Purgatory: Auburn
They’ve fallen and can’t get up: Mississippi State
Taking their ball and going home: Kentucky, Arkansas
Games of note
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama: Both are teams are seeking to avoid a second loss. Given Alabama’s first loss was to the now-not-so-good Florida State, the Crimson Tide need this game more than the Volunteers.
No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt: The Commodores are a 2.5-point home favorite. Yes, you read that correctly. Diego Pavia and company got to spend the past week thinking about how they will rebound following a gigantic missed opportunity against Alabama.
No. 16 Missouri at Auburn: For three consecutive games, Auburn has been competitive against a highly-ranked conference opponent but fell short. Is this the week Auburn gets over the hump?
ICYMI
Kirby Smart discussed relying on freshmen for the right side of the offensive line.
Georgia hopes to contain a “tremendous” transfer in Chambliss.
No. 1 quarterback Jayden Wade has Georgia as an early favorite.
Elite recruits are expected to attend Georgia’s game against Ole Miss.
Three-star Nigel Newkirk discussed his recent Georgia visit.