What’s the Line? (vs. Alabama in the SECCG)
According to the current BetMGM odds, Georgia is a 1.5-point favorite over Alabama with a point total of 47.5 for their game this Saturday at 4 p.m. ET in the SEC Championship Game at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Crimson Tide enters having won 10 of the last 11 games in the series, including a 24-21 win over the Bulldogs two months ago in Athens, going 7-4 against the spread (ATS) in the process.
Matchup: Georgia is 11-1 straight up this season and 5-7 ATS. On Black Friday, Georgia defeated intrastate rival Georgia Tech, 16-9, in Atlanta, failing to cover as a 16.5-point favorite. For the Bulldogs, it was their second consecutive non-cover after covering five of their previous six games. Alabama ended its regular season 10-2 straight up and 7-3-2 ATS. Last night, the Crimson Tide defeated chief rival Auburn, 27-20, pushing for the second time this season as a 7-point favorite. The game vs. Georgia would mark only the fourth time Alabama has been an underdog in the last four seasons (2022-2025): for all three meetings vs. Georgia and vs. Michigan in the 2024 Rose Bowl.
Coaching Trends: At Georgia, Kirby Smart is a mere 1-7 straight up and 3-5 ATS (1-5 last six games) against Alabama, yet is 115-13 straight up and 52 percent ATS versus every other opponent his teams have faced. In six seasons as an FBS head coach, Kalen DeBoer has been impressive against the number, especially when in an underdog role. In two seasons each at Fresno State, Washington, and Alabama, DeBoer is 59 percent ATS overall with a 6-1 ATS mark as an underdog (2-0 at Alabama—both vs. Georgia).
History: In the 14 games in this series beginning in the 2000s, the underdog has gone 11-3 ATS, pulling eight outright upsets in the process. This includes Alabama’s 24-21 upset win as a 2.5-point underdog to the Bulldogs earlier this season in Athens. The last time these two teams faced off on a neutral site was two years ago, when Alabama defeated top-ranked Georgia, 27-24, as a 5-point underdog in the 2023 SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs enter having lost five straight meetings in the series played in Atlanta—all five in SEC title games—with their last victory over the Tide in the city coming on Halloween of 1942 at Grant Field.