What’s the Line? (vs. Alabama)

According to the current BetMGM odds, Georgia is a 4.5-point favorite over Alabama with a point total of 52.5 for their game this Saturday night. Meeting in Athens for the first time since 2015, both teams are coming off open weeks for a series where the underdog has excelled over the last two decades.

Matchup: Georgia is 3-0 straight up this season through three games, but 0-3 against the spread (ATS). A week prior to the off week, the Bulldogs rallied past Tennessee in Knoxville for a 44-41 overtime victory but just missed covering as a 3.5-point favorite. Dating back to early last season, Georgia is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games. Alabama is 2-1 straight up this season, and 2-1 ATS. A week before the open date, the Crimson Tide defeated Wisconsin, 38-14, as a 20-point favorite, marking the fifth consecutive home game dating back to last season Alabama had covered the spread. For this game on the road, Alabama is a regular-season underdog for just the fourth time since its 2008 season opener—all four coming vs. Georgia (2008, 2015, 2024, and Saturday’s game).

Coaching Trends: Although Kirby Smart’s Georgia teams have struggled lately against the number, odds are they’ve been solid whenever faced with a top-notch opponent at home over the last several years. Against AP top-15 foes in Athens beginning in 2020, the Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS. In 17 night games in Athens as Georgia’s head coach, Smart is 17-0 straight up and 9-8 ATS. As much success as Kalen DeBoer has had as Alabama’s head coach at home in Tuscaloosa, he’s struggled on the road. Since taking over for the Tide beginning last season, DeBoer is 9-0 straight up, 7-2 ATS at home—yet only 2-5 straight up, 2-5 ATS on the road, including a two-touchdown loss to two-touchdown underdog Florida State in this season’s opener.  

History: In the series’ last 10 meetings, Alabama is 9-1 straight up and 6-4 ATS. In the 13 games in this series beginning in the 2000s, the underdog has gone 10-3 ATS, having pulled seven outright upsets, including Alabama’s upset wins in the 2023 SEC Championship Game and during the 2024 regular season. As a one-point underdog at home a year ago, Alabama handed the Bulldogs their first regular-season loss since 2020 in a 41-34 thriller in Tuscaloosa. A decade ago, in 2015, the last time these two teams faced off in Athens, UGA was defeated by the Crimson Tide, 38-10, as a 1.5-point home favorite.