What’s the Line? (vs. Kentucky)

ky2 — The last time Georgia hosted Kentucky in Athens, the Bulldogs defeated the No. 20 Wildcats, 51-13, as a 14.5-point favorite. It’s the only game in their last six meetings that Georgia covered the spread vs. Kentucky.(Tony Walsh/UGAAA)

According to the current BetMGM odds, Georgia is a 21.5-point favorite over Kentucky with a point total of 48.5 for their game this Saturday afternoon in Athens. In this series from 2019 to the present, Kentucky has covered five of six games, while the point total has gone Under in five of six games.

Matchup: Georgia is 3-1 straight up this season through four games, and 0-4 against the spread (ATS). Last night, the Bulldogs lost to Alabama, 24-21, as a 2.5-point favorite, snapping their home winning streak at 33 games. Since the season opener last year, Georgia has a lowly 3-14 ATS record. Kentucky is 2-2 straight up this season and 2-2 ATS. Yesterday, the Wildcats lost, 35-13, on the road at South Carolina as a 4.5-point underdog. Before that game, Kentucky had covered three conference contests in a row (vs. Tennessee, Texas, and Ole Miss) dating back to last season.

Coaching Trends: Kirby Smart’s current run of covering just three of his last 17 games is believed to be Georgia’s second-worst ATS stretch since viable point spreads have existed since the late 1940s. (Georgia was 1-13 ATS over a 14-game stretch during the 1989 and 1990 seasons.) Notably, coming off a straight-up loss, as is the case this week, Smart is a solid 10-6 ATS during his career at Georgia. In 13 seasons as Kentucky’s head coach, Mark Stoops has fared much better against non-conference opposition (57 percent ATS) than versus SEC foes (46 percent ATS). Still, and despite the recent beating the Wildcats took at South Carolina, Stoops’ teams have been dangerous as an underdog on the road, going 18-12-1 ATS over the last decade.

History: Having not lost to Kentucky since 2009, Georgia has won 15 consecutive games in this series, going 8-7 ATS. The Bulldogs went 7-2 ATS in the first nine games of the 15-game unbeaten streak, before not covering in five of the last six meetings. In four of the last six meetings in the series, the combined total of the teams has been a mere 25 points or less. As a 22.5-point favorite on the road in Lexington a year ago, Georgia barely defeated Kentucky, 13-12. A year before that, the last time the Bulldogs hosted the Wildcats in Athens, UGA routed 20^th-ranked Kentucky, 51-13, easily covering as a 14.5-point favorite.