Fearless Forecast: Can Northwestern pull off a stunner?
Saturday is a big day in Evanston, with Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff coming to town for Northwestern (1-1) hosting No. 4 Oregon (2-0).
This game marks the second meeting between the two teams, and the first as conference foes. The original matchup was a 14-10 Northwestern home win in 1974. Both teams are coming into this one riding high after blowout victories. The Wildcats handled FCS Western Illinois, 42-7, and Oregon made Big 12 opponent Oklahoma State look like an FCS team in a 69-3 win that caught the eyes of the country as the Ducks lay the foundation for a run at the national title.
Northwestern heads into the game as a 27.5-point underdog per BetMGM, a number that seems low as the Wildcats’ only other game this year was a 23-3 loss at Tulane.
Can the Wildcats pull off a stunner and shock the college football world? Or will the Ducks soar to another big win this season?
WildcatReport’s staff weighs in with their picks.
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Matt Shelton (1-1)
Northwestern took care of business last week vs Western Illinois but there were still some troubling signs. Although quarterback Preston Stone bounced back from four interceptions at Tulane for three touchdowns, I’m not fully swayed his cost-benefit analysis is where it needs to be. He made a high-risk throw out on the opening drive to Ricky Ahumaraeze against WIU that was nearly picked off; against Oregon that would have been a pick-6.
The offense as a whole went through a four-drive lull for most of the second quarter. Against the Ducks, that will prove fatal. Similarly, on defense, Northwestern allowed 269 rushing yards at Tulane. They cut that way down against the Leathernecks to just 71, but the Ducks are a different breed. They’ve rushed for 282.5 yards per game. It’ll be an all too familiar story of offensive three-and-outs feeding into sustained scoring drives allowed on defense, feeding into more three-and-outs.
I think Oregon will suffocate on defense and dominate on offense. The Wildcats don’t have the horses to keep pace in this game. It’ll be all Ducks.
Prediction: Oregon 49, Northwestern 3
Louie Vaccher (1-1)
Northwestern has pulled off quite a few big upsets over the years – or so it would seem. But the Wildcats haven’t beaten a Top 10 team since No. 9 Nebraska in 2011. In Evanston, it hasn’t happened since they knocked off No. 7 Ohio State in 2004. That’s before many of the players in this game were born.
You could read that and make the case that Northwestern is due. But those teams weren’t built like this. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has completed 77% of his passes. The Ducks average 7.4 yards per carry on the ground. Their defense had two pick-6s in the third quarter last week against Oklahoma State.
So the biggest question on Saturday is whether the Cats will be able to keep it respectable.
Northwestern’s defense will play a lot of shell coverages on the back end to try and prevent the big play. But will the front seven (or six, as it were) be able to contain the Ducks potent ground attack after Tulane pushed them around? Offensively, Northwestern probably won’t be able to put much of a dent in the Ducks. Stone has been erratic with his accuracy and the Wildcats just don’t have the downfield threat to keep Oregon from playing press coverage and attacking the line of scrimmage.
Fans can derive some hope from the last time the Wildcats took on a Top 5 heavyweight. Last November, Northwestern threw some wrinkles at No. 2 Ohio State early and took at 7-0 lead in the second quarter – before giving up 31 unanswered points.
Something similar could happen on Saturday. The Wildcats might be able to hang around for a while, but you can’t fly with the Ducks for very long. The final score will be determined by when Dan Lanning decides to call off the dogs.
Prediction: Oregon 45, Northwestern 10
