'Middle 8' and second-half offense: Auburn continues to falter in two critical elements of the game

AUBURN – There are two glaring issues that keep plaguing the Auburn football team, and head coach Bryan Harsin and his coaching staff have few answers through 18 games leading the program.

Losing the battle of the last four minutes before halftime and the first four minutes of the second half, often called the “Middle 8” in football analytics’ circles, and watching as the Tigers’ offense goes completely stagnant in the final 30 minutes of football.

Here’s what some of that looks like.

First, Auburn’s continued struggles losing the “Middle 8” minutes of the football game over the last season and a half.

During the 2021 season:

• Penn State scored a touchdown with 1:23 remaining until halftime
• Penn State scored a touchdown 1:54 into the second half
• Georgia State scored a touchdown with 1:56 remaining until halftime
• LSU field goal 4:00 into the second half
• Arkansas scored a touchdown with :18 remaining until halftime
• Arkansas scored a touchdown 2:30 into the second half
• Ole Miss scored a touchdown with 2:42 remaining until halftime
• Mississippi State scored a touchdown with 1:55 remaining until halftime
• Mississippi State scored a touchdown 3:35 into the second half
• South Carolina scored a touchdown with :24 remaining until halftime

In those same games, here’s Auburn’s results:

• made field goal against Georgia State with 2:54 remaining until halftime
• made field goal against LSU with :14 remaining until halftime
• touchdown against Ole Miss with :11 remaining until halftime

And then in 2022 thus far (every game accounted for):

• Mercer scored a touchdown with :20 remaining until halftime
• San Jose State scored a touchdown with :58 remaining until halftime
• Penn State scored a touchdown with 1:46 remaining until halftime
• Penn State scored a touchdown 2:44 into the second half
• Missouri scored a touchdown with :30 remaining until halftime
• LSU scored a touchdown with :15 remaining until halftime

And in those same games, here’s Auburn’s results:

• touchdown against San Jose State 3:15 into the second half

Harsin was asked about this concerning trend on Monday during his weekly press conference.

“That’s one of the biggest ones, in my opinion. You don’t want anyone to score, and you want to score points going into halftime. It’s all about momentum,” Harsin said. “That’s one area, when you have the ball, it’s not just about scoring touchdowns, it’s about scoring points. Being on the losing side of that, you go in, they score, that’s the momentum they’ve got. When you go into halftime, you have to find a way to get that back. You come back on the field and they have the ball again. You have to recover quickly and get the ball back to your offense. That’s a big one. You have to be at your best in the last five minutes. That’s a big factor, in my opinion.”

And then there’s the now well-documented lack of second-half offense dating back to Auburn’s win against then No. 10 Ole Miss on October 30 of last season.

Since that victory, Auburn has played eight Power Five opponents, plus Houston. In those games, the Tigers are averaging around three points per game in the second half. Auburn has nine total points in the fourth quarter in those nine games. Auburn has punted the ball 28 times, turned it over eight times, and scored just three touchdowns in the second half in those eight Power Five games, plus Houston.

In addition, Auburn is converting around 19 percent of third downs in the second half during those games, and hasn’t converted a fourth-quarter third down in the last five Power Five games, plus Houston.

At this point, the question posed to Harsin isn’t a new one. The answer, however, remains the same.

“We look at every game and we know the reasons, right. We look at every drive, there’s a drive chart, there’s a result, there’s reasons why. Then we break it all down. Where did we have a negative play? Where did we have a positive play? What’s the end result on those drives? Those are things we’ve discussed as a staff, those are things we’ve discussed with our players,” Harsin said.

“To me, it comes down to trying to eliminate some of those negative plays and being more consistent. That’s play call, that’s execution, that’s all those things. It’s not one thing in particular that’s glaring reason why. It’s things we all have to improve on and get better at. Adjustments coming out of half, we have to be able to find ways to put points on the board. It’s not just a half of football, you have to play all four quarters.”

The “Middle Eight” and offensive execution in clutch time in competitive football games continue to produce losing results. It’s a significant reason the Tigers are 9-9 under Harsin, and have lost five of their last six SEC games.

With No. 2 Georgia and No 9 Ole Miss on the horizon, Harsin and the Auburn coaching staff will continue to work towards reversing two trends that have become absolute calling cards of this team.