College football analyst Josh Pate picks the Florida Gators to upset Texas

The Florida Gators are hoping to turn the page on their 1-3 start this weekend when they return home for the first time in nearly a month. The challenge, however, is a big one: No. 9 Texas comes to Gainesville in what looks like another uphill battle on paper. Oddsmakers at BetMGM have Florida as a 7-point underdog as of Wednesday afternoon.

Back in the preseason, this game carried plenty of national intrigue. But with both offenses stumbling out of the gate, much of the buzz has faded.

Josh Pate, the host of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, previewed the matchup on Wednesday and admitted he’s still holding out hope both teams can finally show some life offensively.

“DJ Lagway was quoted earlier in the week as saying, ‘eventually this offense is going to pop, and when it does look out’,” Pate said in his breakdown. “I assume he means in 2025, but I don’t know. It could mean anything at this point. Look, if your offense is going to pop at some point this year, Texas’s is going to pop at some point this year. So who knows, they’re both coming out of their BYE. Maybe both offenses pop.”

Florida ranks No. 113 nationally in total offense — second to last in the SEC — while Texas sits at No. 41 nationally, good for just ninth in its conference. That inefficiency has shown up most clearly on third down, where neither team has been reliable.

“The total is 41.5 points for the game,” Pate said. “Unlikely since we have the number 103 and number 123 offenses in terms of third-down conversion percentage. But hey, the past is the past, and the future is now.”

What Josh Pate hopes to see from the Florida Gators after a BYE

A year ago, DJ Lagway’s big arm was the centerpiece of Florida’s offense. In 2025, injuries and lost development time have led to a much slower start for the sophomore quarterback. That drop-off is one of the most glaring differences between how Florida ended 2024 and how it has stumbled through this fall.

Lagway’s deep-ball ability, once his calling card, has been largely absent this season. Pate believes that has to change if Florida wants any shot at pulling the upset.

“Coming out of the BYE weeks, they’re 106th in explosive pass rate right now,” Pate said. “So, I think they have to take multiple shots in this game. Is it a high percentage chance? No, it’s not, but if you don’t convert them, you have a no-percentage chance of winning this game.”

Of course, that only works if the Florida Gators commit to the run first.

“I remember just like you do, the five turnover game against LSU,” Pate said. “So, it seems weird that I’m sitting here calling for DJ Lagway to throw, but you can’t not. What you can do, and this is the prerequisite to taking your deep shots, is you gotta fully commit to the run. Much like FSU, you’re going to run into a brick wall many, many times, but you gotta stay committed to it.

“Right now, you’re sitting at 5.9 yards per carry, well, Jadan Baugh is. Yet, I watched the LSU game, and he carried it 10 times. I watched the Miami game, and he carried it 12 times. These are not blowout games. These are very close things. They’re just not giving him the ball. I don’t question play calling, and I won’t question individual play calling even in that sense. I will question philosophy. Why? Why did you think it gave you a better shot for DJ Lagway to throw that many times against LSU? A team also incapable of pulling away because they can’t run the ball. When you could have run the ball yourself and controlled a lot more of the game.”

Pate makes his pick for who he thinks will win the game

Both teams have plenty of question marks heading into Saturday, and it’s unclear whether either side will find answers in The Swamp. Despite Florida’s losing record and shaky offense, Pate doesn’t see Texas as being that far ahead. In fact, he’s calling for the Florida Gators to pull off the upset.

“I woke up with a feeling on Sunday, and I have not gotten rid of it,” Pate said. “I think Florida is going to win this game. Don’t ask me how. Don’t ask me what happens afterwards with Billy Napier, I don’t know. I think Florida is going to find a way to win the game. I’m just telling you, I don’t think there’s that much separation between the teams.”

For Pate, the prediction is rooted in more than just a gut feeling.

“I think there is something to be said about the fact that the team did not quit on Napier last year. I don’t think they’re going to quit on him this year. They have played a little bit of a tougher schedule than Texas. They have contributed themselves to their own downfall. They’ve also faced some pretty stiff competition. It’s led to this perception that there’s this big gap between these teams. Maybe there is, maybe there isn’t. Maybe we haven’t gotten Lagway at anything better than a C+ performance level so far this year, and we get an A- out of him Saturday.

That, combined with this defense, and Texas’s offensive struggles and wide receivers’ inability to separate, could be the difference. I’m gonna roll the dice, man. Everyone else has given up on Billy Napier. I’m going to buy Florida one more time. I’m going to take them to win the game outright.”