ESPN identifies Gators' biggest 'ifs' for 2025

Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, “according to SportsOddsHistory.com, no national title winner over the past 24 seasons has begun the season with title odds longer than +5000.” Entering the 2025 season, 14 teams are at +5000 or better, according to ESPN BET. The Florida Gators are one of them, at +4000.

All 14 of these teams have question marks, and Connelly has identified the “ifs” for each. He noted, “in the previous six [editions of his ifs list], the eventual champ has had three or fewer ifs every year.”

For UF, Connelly wrote about four big “ifs. You can find them below with our added context.

ESPN: If … Lagway is what we think he is. Like Arch Manning, we’re projecting success onto DJ Lagway. The No. 8 prospect in the 2024 class went 6-1 as a starter and averaged an explosive 16.7 yards per completion. But he also threw nine interceptions with subpar efficiency, and he ranked 69th in Total QBR. That he’s currently No. 6 in the Heisman odds, then, feels aggressive. Lagway has great size, a huge arm and solid mobility, but that’s a lot of hype.

GATORS ONLINE CONTEXT: Most of those inside the program believe Lagway is primed for a big jump in Year 2. But he didn’t throw in the spring due to a lower body/shoulder injury [per Gators coach Billy Napier]. That loss of developmental time and time building chemistry with his receivers is a potential concern.

Meanwhile, Napier and Lagway both provided positive updates about Lagway’s health last week during SEC Media Days in Atlanta.

Lagway said this: “Training has been amazing. I’ve been working. I’m actually getting better at things. I’m not just trying to get back to throwing the ball. I’ve been working on mechanics that are going to help my accuracy this year, help my decision-making. It’s been great. … Yes, sir, I’m feeling good. I’m excited. I’m ready to go. I’m excited to go there and compete. I’m going to be out there for fall camp and I’m excited to get to work.”

Two things can’t be overlooked with Lagway’s interceptions and efficiency in 2024. 1. He was a true freshman thrust into the starting spot when Graham Mertz was lost for the season with an injury in October. 2. Lagway sustained a hamstring injury on Nov. 2 against Georgia. He returned two weeks later, but played the final four games at far less than 100 percent. UF went 4-0 in those games.

ESPN: If … he has receivers. Last season’s two main pass catchers are gone, and sophomores Eugene Wilson III and Aidan Mizell are the two most proven returning options outside of UCLA transfer J.Michael Sturdivant. Wilson caught 61 passes as a freshman and had receptions of 85 and 40 yards early in 2024 before a season-ending injury. He’s a likely star, but Lagway will also need help from others.

GATORS ONLINE CONTEXT: Connelly is right; receiver is a question mark. But not when it comes to talent. There is plenty of that. Outside of Sturdivant, Wilson and Aidan Mizell, though, there isn’t a ton of college experience at the position.

Sturdivant, who is both fast and tall, has the potential to be Lagway’s steady deep threat. Wilson, returning from injury, is dangerous after the catch. Mizell showed flashes in 2024, but needs to take his game up a notch. Another returnee, Tank Hawkins, seems poised for a jump in production.

Then, the Gators have a talented group of freshmen. A few of them should make immediate impacts in 2025, notably Dallas Wilson, a star of the spring game, and Vernell Brown III.

Overall, the staff—and Lagway—are excited about this group’s potential. It’s just a matter of going out there and doing it now.

ESPN: If … last season’s sophomore defenders become steely-eyed veterans. How young was Florida’s 2024 defense? Of the 12 returning defenders who had 200-plus snaps, eight are now sophomores or juniors. That the Gators still jumped from 60th to 23rd in defensive SP+ was exciting, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Gators enjoyed another leap in 2025. That will require juniors such as nickel Sharif Denson and linebacker Grayson Howard to raise their games even more.

GATORS ONLINE CONTEXT: While Connelly points to players in the middle and back end of the defense, everything will start up front. EDGE Tyreak Sapp and end Caleb Banks have the potential to be high-round picks. With more consistency from them, and a steady pass rush at the other EDGE spot from the likes of George Gumbs and LJ McCray, this is where UF has a chance to win ball games in 2025. Another key will be how well the Gators replace starting nose Cam Jackson, who is now in the NFL.

Meanwhile, UF is stout at linebacker with lots of depth. If there’s a concern it might be secondary depth and youth. But if the guys up front play like people think is possible, that will go a long way toward helping the defensive backs.

ESPN: If … the Gators have the depth to survive this ridiculous schedule. Florida went 8-5 last season — 2-5 against the SP+ top 15 and 6-0 against everyone else. The late-season upsets of LSU and Ole Miss were exciting, but with seven more projected top-15 opponents on the schedule, a genuine title run will require even more huge wins and exceptional depth.

GATORS ONLINE CONTEXT: As difficult as last season’s schedule was, it has the potential to be even more challenging in 2025. That’s because the road slate appears to be more grueling, with games at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss among others, along with the annual neutral-site clash with Georgia in Jacksonville. UF’s biggest home games are vs. SEC favorite Texas, Tennessee and FSU. The good news for UF? The roster probably is the best it has been in a few years.