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ESPN matchup predictor sees Gators going just .500 in 2025

On3 imageby: Keith Niebuhr08/21/25On3Keith
Florida-Gators-Billy-Napier
Florida head coach Billy Napier during a game between Florida and Tennessee in Neyland Stadium, in Knoxville, Tenn., Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. (USA TODAY Sports)

As the season predictions have rolled in, the Florida Gators seem to be getting a fair amount of respect. UF came in at No. 15 in the Associated Press Top 25 preseason rankings and No. 17 in the Coaches Poll. Athlon has the Gators tying for sixth in the SEC. Josh Pate, host of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, has Florida making the playoff.

But then there’s the current ESPN matchup predictor from the computers, which as of Aug. 21 isn’t all that high on the prospects of Billy Napier’s team. It features predictor percentages for all 12 of the Gators’ games. And if you’re a UF fan, you’re not going to like its numbers.

ESPN’s matchup predictions have the Gators predicted to go only 6-6 in the regular season, far below the expectations of those inside the program and many outside of it. The matchup predictor has the following Florida opponents favored against the Gators: LSU, Miami, Texas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Georgia. Meanwhile, UF is favored to only beat one team away from The Swamp this season—Kentucky.

Now, that said, Miami is only favored at 53.0 percent over UF at home, LSU at 57.5 percent at home and Ole Miss 58.8 percent at home. In other words, the predictor views those as likely tight matchups. Meanwhile, it should be noted that once games begin to be played the percentages will fluctuate accordingly with each week’s results.

The experts at BetMGM are more bullish on UF. They have set the Gators’ win total 7.5. BetMGM has only one of the Gators’ 12 games with a preseason spread. It has LSU at minus-6.5 over UF.

Below is the full Florida Gators schedule with ESPN’s current match up predictor chances:

  • Long Island University (Aug. 30) – UF 99.0 percent (W)
  • South Florida (Sept. 6) – UF 90.4 percent (W)
  • at LSU (Sept. 13) – LSU 57.5 percent (L)
  • at Miami (Sept. 20) – UM 53.0 percent (L)
  • Texas (Oct. 4) – UT 70.3 percent (L)
  • at Texas A&M (Oct. 11) – TAMU 60.7 percent (L)
  • Mississippi St. (Oct. 18) – UF 83.0 percent (W)
  • Georgia (Nov. 1) – UGA 69.2 percent (L)
  • at Kentucky Nov 8 (Nov. 8) – UF 69.1 percent (W)
  • at Ole Miss (Nov. 15) – OM 58.8 percent (L)
  • Tennessee (Nov. 22) – UF 51.5 percent (W)
  • Florida State (Nov. 28) – UF 88.1 percent (W)

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