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Game-by-game predictions for the Gators' 2022 season from ESPN's FPI

On3 imageby: Zach Abolverdi07/17/22ZachAbolverdi

The Gators are almost two weeks away from the start of training camp for the 2022 football season, which opens in The Swamp against Pac-12 champion Utah.

Florida had its second losing record in five years last fall, finishing 6-7. ESPN’s Football Power Index has projected UF’s inaugural season under coach Billy Napier.

The Gators currently rank No. 29 in the FPI, a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. Based on 20,000 simulations of the season, the results represent how many points above or below average a team is.

Here is a breakdown of the Gators’ game-by-game predictions for this fall, including odds against the opponent and a running record tally.

Sept. 3 vs. Utah Utes

Utah quarterback Cameron Rising throws a pass against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 52.1%

Projected Record: 1-0

Sept. 10 vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson against the Kentucky Wildcats last season. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 51.1%

Projected Record: 2-0

Sept. 17 vs. South Florida Bulls

Florida-Gators-Ventrell-Miller
Florida linebacker Ventrell Miller last year against USF, his final game of the season. (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Win Probability: 87.7%

Projected Record: 3-0

Sept. 24 at Tennessee Volunteers

florida-wide-receiver-justin-shorter-announces-return-to-gators-program-next-season
Florida wide receiver Justin Shorter against Tennessee last season. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 39.8%

Projected Record: 3-1

Oct. 1 vs. Eastern Washington Eagles

Princely-Umanmielen-Derek-Wingo
Florida defensive end Princely Umanmielen and linebacker Derek Wingo. (Isabella Marley/UAA Photo)

Win Probability: 96.9%

Projected Record: 4-1

Oct. 8 vs. Missouri Tigers (Homecoming)

missouri-tigers-mizzou-niko-hea-potential-go-ahead-touchdown-florida-gators
Florida EDGE Brenton Cox Jr. pressure former Missouri quarterback Connor Bazelak. (Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Win Probability: 78.3%

Projected Record: 5-1

Oct. 15 vs. LSU Tigers

florida-quarterback-anthony-richardson-transfer-questions-loss-lsu-tigers-emory-jones-gators
Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson against LSU last season. (Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 44.7%

Projected Record: 5-2

Oct. 29 vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)

Jason-Marshall-Jr-Florida-Gators
Florida cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. against UGA. (David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Win Probability: 9.6%

Projected Record: 5-3

Nov. 5 at Texas A&M Aggies

NayQuan-Wright-Florida-Gators-Texas-A&M
Florida running back Nay’Quan Wright against Texas A&M in 2020. (Tim Casey/UAA Photo)

Win Probability: 29.7%

Projected Record: 5-4

Nov. 12 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Florida-Gators-Dante-Zanders
Florida tight end Dante Zanders was the story of the spring. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Win Probability: 69.9%

Projected Record: 6-4

Nov. 19 at Vanderbilt Commodores

Florida Gators safety Trey Dean
Florida safety Trey Dean III reacts after breaking up a pass against Vanderbilt last season. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 86.8%

Projected Record: 7-4

Nov. 25 (Friday) at Florida State Seminoles

Florida wide receiver Trent Whittemore runs for yardage against FSU last season. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 43.3%

Projected Record: 7-5

Florida’s 2022 projection: 7-5

Highest win probability: vs. Eastern Washinton (96.9%)

Lowest win probability: vs. Georgia (9.6%)

Toss-up games: Utah (52.1%), Kentucky (51.1%)

Chance of winning division: 2.4%

Chance of winning conference: 0.3%

Chance of making playoffs: 0%

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