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What is UF's swing game in 2025? ESPN makes its pick

On3 imageby:Keith Niebuhr•07/25/25•

On3Keith

Brian Kelly, LSU
Brian Kelly, LSU - © Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Every team has a game or two [or even three] that can make or break a season. This week, ESPN “asked our reporters to single out one contest for each of our post-spring Top 25 teams that could swing their season one way or the other. On paper, what is the one game that will play the biggest role in determining whether the season is a success or a dud?” Here is the swing game they came up with for your Florida Gators:

No. 19: Florida Gators

Swing game: at LSU, Sept. 13

Florida once again didn’t get any favors from the schedule makers, and the Gators will get an early test in Baton Rouge against LSU. On paper, this feels like a year that Brian Kelly is going to have things put together in the Bayou, in part because he has the coveted returning starter at QB in Garrett Nussmeier. Along with the incumbent talent, Kelly and his staff did a really good job in the transfer portal and will be a tough out every Saturday this fall. If Florida wins this game, or even loses a close one, it will bode well for the rest of the season.

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Interestingly enough, Florida was not named as the swing game opponent for any ranked team from ESPN. Here is who they chose for the Gators’ 2025 opponents:

3. Texas Longhorns

Swing game: vs. Oklahoma at Cotton Bowl, Oct. 11

4. Georgia Bulldogs

Swing game: at Tennessee, Sept. 13

6. LSU Tigers

Swing game: at Clemson, Aug. 30

21. Miami Hurricanes

Swing game: vs. Notre Dame, Aug. 31

23. Texas A&M Aggies

Swing game: at Notre Dame, Sept. 13

24. Ole Miss Rebels

Swing game: vs. LSU, Sept. 27

Keith’s take

The choice of LSU as Florida’s swing game on the surface seems solid. It’s a big showdown at Tiger Stadium and the start of a massive four-game stretch for the Gators [at LSU, at Miami, Texas, at Texas A&M].

However, it would not have been my choice. That’s because of where it sits on the calendar. As the first SEC game for UF, it does have the potential to set the tone. However, a loss that day absolutely could be overcome. Given UF’s rugged schedule, the Gators could lose two games and still likely make the College Football Playoff. It’s even possible a three-loss Florida team could contend for a spot.

To me, UF’s game the following week is the bigger swing game for the Gators no matter what happens in Baton Rouge. Lose to the Tigers and it’s make-or-break time in Miami Gardens.

If UF beats LSU then the Gators would be 4-0 with a win over the ‘Canes [provided they take care of USF also]. That would mean back-to-back quality road wins. UF almost certainly would be in the top 10 and on everyone’s radar. And that would give the Gators a heck of an emotional boost heading into an off week before playing host to preseason SEC favorite Texas at home.

As for ESPN’s swing game picks for Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M and Miami … I wasn’t crazy about any of them either. The games chosen are big, yes, but they are all too early in the season in my estimation to be true swing games. If this were 20 years ago when you could maybe only afford one loss, sure. But not in 2025.

For example, the margin for error certainly shrinks for a Miami team with a weak schedule if it loses to Notre Dame. But it plays host to Florida three weeks later. Win that one and the ‘Canes would be back in a favorable spot. To me, the Florida game will make or break Miami’s season, not the Notre Dame game on Week 1. UF is the true swing game for the ‘Canes.

Now it’s your turn … what is UF’s biggest swing game to you?




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