Georgia a 'distant' No. 1 atop Bill Connelly ESPN SP+ rankings

Last week we shared with you Bill Connelly’s look at returning production, one of the key pieces that make up his SP+ rankings. Now, the full puzzle for SP+ is put together, and Georgia is a “distant” No. 1 according to Connelly, topping Ohio State by about four points.

The Bulldogs have a rating that comes out to 34.5 overall. Offensively, they are second (46.9), defensively they are fifth (12.5) while special teams ranks fourth (0.7). Georgia is the only team in the country to rank top-5 in all three categories and one of just two – joined by Alabama – with a trio of top-10 ratings.

You know returning production factors in. What else does? Connelly explains the recent results – both on the recruiting trail and on the field – and how they play a part as well.

“I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness: 1. Returning production: The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you’re pretty far down the projections road. 2. Recent recruiting: This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in reverse chronological order (the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning last season, I also began incorporating transfers — both the quality and the volume — into the recruiting rankings part as well. 3. Recent history: Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (2-4 years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right?”

Of Georgia’s opponents, three find themselves in the top 10, four in the top-15 and five crack the top-20. According to Connelly, Texas (No. 4), is the toughest of the matchups for Georgia with Alabama (No. 6) and Ole Miss (No. 8) not far behind. Tennessee (No. 15) and Clemson (No. 16) also rate highly. Auburn (No. 31), Florida (No. 33), Kentucky (No. 40), Georgia Tech (No. 60) and Mississippi State (No. 74) round out the Power Five opponents.

The ESPN metric is another example of the Bulldogs getting love ahead of 2024. The worldwide leader in sports also had Georgia atop it’s updated way-too-early rankings released on Tuesday with six of UGA’s 12 regular season opponents cracking the top 25.

Leading the charge is returning starter at quarterback Carson Beck. He threw for the third most yards in the country last season and did so with a Georgia school record completion percentage. He’ll have the help of returnees like Dominic Lovett, Dillon Bell, Oscar Delp and Rara Thomas behind an offensive line that features four players that started at least nine games. Then there’s the newcomers: Florida running back Trevor Etienne, Miami wide receiver Colbie Young, Vanderbilt wide receiver London Humphreys, USC wide receiver Michael Jackson III and Stanford tight end Benjamin Yurosek. The five transfer on offense make up the majority of a seven-player transfer class – so far.

Flip things over to the defensive side of the ball, and while there is more turnover, the experience that’s coming back for the Bulldogs is still impressive. Malaki Starks was an All-American in the secondary. Daylen Everette started every game at cornerback. In front of them is a front seven that features veterans like Nazir Stackhouse, Mykel Williams, Warren Brinson, Smael Mondon, Chaz Chambliss and others – including two sophomores that played important roles as true freshmen at inside linebacker: CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson.

All that’s to say, Georgia is in a great position entering 2024. That’s been known, but the numbers back it up. The Bulldogs are considered the favorite to take home a third National Championship in four seasons according to oddsmakers in Las Vegas. Claiming another championship won’t come easy though as UGA takes on a tough schedule featuring road games at Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss – all three of whom are likely to be top-10 teams – and other matchups with the likes of Clemson and Tennessee, plus rivals Florida, Auburn and Georgia Tech. Rounding out the power conference opponents Georgia plays are Kentucky and Mississippi State while Tennessee Tech and UMass are also on the schedule.

Georgia will begin spring practice in just over a month as the Bulldogs are expected to get underway following the University’s spring break. Kirby Smart and his staff will have 15 sessions to work with the team to begin preparations for the 2024 season including three scrimmages – the final of which is open to the public on G-Day for the annual spring game. Dates and times are still to be announced.