Big Ten Women's Basketball: Conference play preview

It feels like women’s basketball teams across the Big Ten were playing their exhibition games and preparing for the season opener just a few days ago. All of the sudden, the season is about a third of the way done and it’s time for the opening matchups of Big Ten play this weekend. Through the first month of the season, there are three clear contenders for the regular season crown, while the majority of the rest of the conference is still trying to figure out where they stand in the conference and on the national stage. We took a stab at trying to put teams into categories, but it’s still early and there is a lot of basketball left to be played. For now, this is just a quick look at how each team in the Big Ten is doing prior to their conference opener.

Conference Contenders

#4 Iowa Hawkeyes (9-1) (NET 6) (Dec 10: at Wisconsin)

The gem on the Hawkeyes early season resume is a win over #15 Virginia Tech in Charlotte, but they also have wins over #13 K-State and Drake. Their lone loss came to K-State at home. Caitlin Clark has been herself, averaging 29.6 PPG, 6.7 REB and 7.6 AST, while Kate Martin has really emerged as a secondary scoring threat over the last six games. Hannah Stuelke has been out/limited in the last four games, but when she is back at full strength, Iowa is the favorite to win the conference.

#12 Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) (NET 17) (Dec 10: vs Penn State)

The Buckeyes have rebounded from their opening night loss to USC with seven wins in a row, but none of them have been majorly impressive. A 20-point win at Tennessee would have sounded great a month ago, but the Vols are 4-5. Luckily, OSU has #25 Penn State and #2 UCLA coming up. Soph F Cotie McMahon is as advertised, averaging 15.6 PPG and 5.0 REB, while four of the Buckeyes five starters are shooting over 50.0% from the floor. The addition of Celeste Taylor hasn’t really panned out from an offensive standpoint, but there is plenty of season left. OSU is a clear Big Ten contender once again.

#16 Indiana Hoosiers (7-1) (NET 28) (Dec 9: at Rutgers)

Outside of a win over Princeton and Tennessee, there isn’t a whole lot of good on the Hoosiers early resume. They got blasted at Stanford and needed a late run to win at Maine. However, I’m going to go out on a limb and say Indiana will be okay. Mackenzie Holmes is Mackenzie Holmes, averaging 18.3 PPG on 63.0% shooting, while Sara Scalia has stepped up, averaging 16.5 PPG and shooting 45.1% from three-point range. Once Sydney Parrish (28.2% 3PT) gets going from long distance, Indiana will have three dangerous shooters around Holmes and that’s when they will be at their best.

NCAA Tournament Potential

Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2) (NET 21) (Dec 9: at Michigan State)

I continue to argue that Nebraska has the talent to be a top 25 team and they continue to try to prove me wrong. They’ve taken care of business against the teams they should, but in their two toughest games, they trailed by 9 at home against Creighton after 3Q and were down by 20 at half against TCU. Still, they should be an NCAAT team. C Alexis Markowski (17.2 PPG, 9.6 REB) is shooting 63.1% from two-point range, while G Jaz Shelley is averaging 14.0 PPG. True freshman forward Natalie Potts has been a nice surprise, averaging 12.4 PPG and 5.4 REB. Will be interesting to see if HC Amy Williams can get this team playing at their ceiling.

Illinois Fighting Illini (5-2) (NET 32) (Dec 10: vs Michigan)

HC Shauna Green got the Illini back to the NCAAT for the first time since 2003 and the expectation was that they could take a jump to top 25 level this season. They lost to #19 Marquette by 4 and to #14 Notre Dame by 11, while their five wins are against teams with a combined record of 8-27. Had they flipped that Marquette result, things would feel better, but for the moment, Illinois has five bad wins and two good losses. They have four scorers averaging in double figures led by G Genesis Bryant (16.9 PPG) and F Kendall Bostic (11.9 PPG, 9.0 REB). Their next five games include Michigan, Missouri, Arkansas and at #16 Indiana, so we will find out a lot more about the Illini over the next month. I feel like if anyone in this category is comfortably going to make the NCAAT, it will be Illinois.

#25 Penn State Lady Lions (7-2) (NET 34) (Dec 10: at Ohio State)

The Lady Lions have gotten off to a good start, including wins over Kansas and Oklahoma State, while they lost to #6 USC by just a point. The excitement around their start took a hit last time out when West Virginia beat them 83-65, but this is an improved PSU team. Fifth year senior G Makenna Marisa (16.0 PPG) and soph G Shay Ciezki (13.8 PPG, 39.7% 3PT) have carried the load, but seven players are averaging 7.0+ points per game. Maybe the Lady Lions can make their first NCAAT appearance since 2014.

Michigan Wolverines (7-2) (NET 39) (Dec 10: at Illinois)

Michigan, much like Penn State, felt a bit better about themselves prior to their last game. They have a win over a solid Middle Tennessee squad, but losing by 23 at Toledo on Wednesday was a bit of a shock. The Wolverines are led by G Laila Phelia (15.4 PPG), but Missouri transfer Lauren Hansen (9.3 PPG) is the next leading scorer. While the Michigan defense is ranked second in the Big Ten (55.4 PPG), they will likely need to improve on their 72.3 PPG on offense, which ranks 10th in the conference.

Maryland Terrapins (6-3) (NET 45) (Dec 10: vs Northwestern)

It has been a pretty disappointing start to the season for Brenda Freese’s Terrapins squad. They’ve played a very tough non-conference slate and have picked up wins over Syracuse, Green Bay and Harvard. However, the concerning part is losing by 38 to South Carolina, 32 to UConn, 20 to Washington State and needing a second half rally to beat George Mason. It’s not an offensive issue, they are scoring over 80 PPG, while Shyanne Sellers (18.1 PPG) has taken over the primary scorer role. The issue is their defense ranks 13th in the Big Ten (75.6 PPG) and they are 10th in turnovers per game (17.0). I think this Terps team will be safe and make the tournament, but they are not a Big Ten contending team in their current form.

Wildcard Teams

Michigan State Spartans (7-1) (NET 7) (Dec 9: vs Nebraska)

The Spartans haven’t played a very tough first eight games, but they’ve been able to score at a really high level. They battled Creighton hard for four quarters down in Cancun in a loss, but their best win is over 5-4 DePaul. Back to their scoring though, they are second in the country in PPG (93.9), second in three-point shooting (43.5%) and sixth in fewest turnovers per game (11.4). G DeeDee Hagemann has taken over the role of leading scorer (14.9 PPG), while three other players are scoring in double figures. The jury is still out on MSU until they play some tougher competition, but they appear to be a solid squad at this point.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-1) (NET 43) (Dec 10: vs Purdue)

The Gophers beat up on lesser competition early, but a 2OT win over Drake and a dominating win at Kentucky in the past week has me believing this team could surprise some people. Soph G Mara Braun (19.4 PPG) and Soph F Mallory Heyer (10.3 PPG) are averaging 30+ minutes per game. Meanwhile, true freshman G Grace Grocholski (11.4 PPG) and NC State transfer C Sophie Hart (10.0 PPG, 5.6 REB) have been huge additions. Mark it down, this Gophers team will pull in upset somewhere along the line during conference play en route to a WNIT appearance.

Purdue Boilermakers (6-3) (NET 89) (Dec 10: at Minnesota)

It’s been an interesting start to the season for Purdue. Five of their six wins have come against teams with a combined 6-27 record, but they did pick up a solid win over 8-1 Texas A&M at home. They also went 0-2 in the Bahamas against Florida and Georgia. Had they went 1-1, the Boilers would probably feel pretty good at 7-2. Four players are averaging in double figures, but they rank 12th in the Big Ten at 69.1 PPG. That number has to improve if they want to make it back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances.

The bottom of the conference

Wisconsin Badgers (5-3) (NET 109) (Dec 10: vs Iowa)

The Badgers aren’t off to a bad start this season given the fact that they lost three of their top four scorers from last season. They are 5-3 with wins over South Dakota State and Boston College, as well as a three-point loss against Arkansas in Fort Myers. Forward Serah Williams is averaging 15.6 PPG and 8.5 REB, which has her in line for All-Big Ten honors, while point guard Ronnie Porter has been a nice surprise, averaging 10.5 PPG and 7.0 REB. Still not sure they can consistently contend with the middle of the pack Big Ten teams, but they should compete.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-5) (NET 147) (Dec 9: vs Indiana)

The Scarlet Knights have played the most games of anyone in the Big Ten to this point of the season. They are 6-0 against Q4 teams and 0-5 against everyone else, but put together a good showing at the South Point Classic against 10-0 Texas Tech and 6-2 Boise State, losing both games by single digits. Sophomore Kaylene Smikle (16.8 ppg), UNC transfer Destiny Adams (13.6 ppg, 7.9 reb) and forward Chyna Cornwell (10.2 ppg, 8.5 reb) have led the way so far.

Northwestern Wildcats (3-5) (NET 280) (Dec 10: at Maryland)

It’s been tough sledding for Joe McKeown’s Wildcats team so far this season. Four of their first eight games have been against Q1/2 teams, but they are 0-4 with a 35.5-point average margin of defeat. A couple of familiar faces in Melannie Daley (11.9 ppg) and Caileigh Walsh (11.9 ppg), as well as junior guard Hailey Weaver (12.9 ppg) lead in scoring. However, they ranked 129th in scoring and 146th in field goal percentage. Northwestern seems like a clear pick for last place at this point in time.