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Bracket Talk: Assessing the Hawkeyes NCAA Tournament chances

On3 imageby: Kyle Huesmann2 hours agoHuesmannKyle
HawkeyeReport breaks down the NCAAT picture for the Iowa Field Hockey team. (Photo by Dennis Scheidt)
HawkeyeReport breaks down the NCAAT picture for the Iowa Field Hockey team. (Photo by Dennis Scheidt)

It’s starting to get to that time of year. The Iowa Field Hockey team is looking to get back to the NCAA Tournament after missing for the first time since 2017 last season. With just three regular season games remaining, the Hawkeyes are in a good position with a 9-4 record, but they haven’t locked up a spot just yet. The NCAAT field has just 18 teams, with ten of the bids going to conference tournament winners. That leaves just eight at-large spots, so every single game matters. HawkeyeReport takes a look at where the Iowa Field Hockey team currently stands and what they need to do to secure an at-large spot with just a couple regular season games remaining.

Breaking down the Hawkeyes 9-4 record…

Coming into this past weekend, it felt like the Hawkeyes had a chance to nearly lock up an at-large bid if they were able to beat Penn State and Rutgers on the road. However, they fell to the Nittany Lions in 2OT and that was their first “bad” loss, as PSU has a 6-8 record and is 32nd in the RPI. Iowa has a 3-3 record against the RPI Top 25, including wins over #7 Wake Forest, #15 Miami Oh and #18 Rutgers. Against the NFHCA Top 25, Iowa gets a boost to 5-3, with a pair of wins over #20 Indiana. The Hawkeyes are currently 10th in the ACR, 13th in the RPI and have faced the 21st toughest schedule in the country. If the selection committee heavily weights RPI, 11-2 Yale (#10) and 13-2 UMass (#12) are both mid-majors ahead of Iowa at this moment in time. One thing working against Iowa, their average non-conference opponent RPI is 36.25, which is down from ’23 (34.66) and ’24 (28.88).

The remaining schedule…

( ) – ACR/RPI Ranking

Oct 23: vs Michigan State (53/56)

Oct 26: vs #13 Michigan (12/19)

Oct 31: at #18 Ohio State (17/30)

Nov 6: Big Ten Tournament First Round (Bloomington, IN)

How the NCAA Tournament picture is shaping up?

As previously mentioned, there’s just eight at-large bids up for grabs. Starting in the ACC, they are trending towards getting five teams in the field, including four at-large bids. The Ivy League is almost certainly going to get two bids, but 11-2 Yale is in the hunt to make it a three-bid Ivy. Meanwhile, although the odds aren’t great with a loss to Ohio (RPI 71) on the resume, 13-2 UMass is in the at-large conversation if they don’t win the MAC. The Big East is the only true bid stealer conference, as UConn and Old Dominion will both be reasonable tests for 12-2 Liberty when the conference tournament rolls around. In the Big Ten, things are mess. Northwestern is destined to get the auto bid, but no one else has locked up a spot. Right now, it looks like the Big Ten could get three at-large bids, but Yale, UMass or the Big East can shake things up.

What Iowa needs to do to secure an at-large bid

First things first, the Hawkeyes have to beat Michigan State on Thursday. They are the lowest-rated ACC/Big Ten team in the RPI by a wide margin and are just 5-9 overall. However, they can’t be overlooked, as they have won back-to-back games, including an upset win over Ohio State on Sunday.

If Iowa gets a win over MSU, then it’s very likely that one more win would be enough to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Their final two regular season games, against Ohio State and Michigan, are very intriguing, as the two sides have been inconsistent. Still, the Buckeyes have wins over Maryland and Michigan, while the Wolverines have a win over Wake Forest and Rutgers. Tough but winnable games.

Up Next: The Hawkeyes return to Grant Field on Thursday for a meeting with the Michigan State Spartans. The game is set to begin at 6:00pm CT on BTN+.

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