Iowa Baseball Big Ten Tournament Preview: Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Welcome to postseason baseball. The Big Ten Tournament got underway on Tuesday with a trio of pool play games and now, it’s time for Iowa to get their stay in Omaha underway. As the three seed, they open pool play today with a matchup against the 10th-seeded Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

The Hawkeyes enter the postseason with a 32-20-1 overall record, including a 21-9 mark in Big Ten play, which earned them one of the critical top four seeds in this tournament. This past weekend, in their regular season finale series, Iowa was swept by Oregon in Iowa City, falling just short of their first Big Ten regular season title since 1990.

In the latest Field of 64 projection by On3’s Jonathan Wagner, the Hawkeyes were listed in the ‘Next Four Out’ portion of the projection after finishing the regular season winning just one of their last ten. That puts them in a position where they, more than likely, must win the tournament to earn a bid to an NCAA Tournament Regional, while getting to championship Sunday is non-negotiable.

First pitch for Wednesday’s game between the Hawkeyes and Scarlet Knights is scheduled for approximately 6:00pm CT on the Big Ten Network. It will be the 29th all-time meeting between the two programs. Iowa won two out of three in Piscataway to open the conference slate, winning the final two games of the series after dropping the opener.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (29-27, 15-15)

Picked 14th in the D1Baseball preseason poll, Rutgers finished the regular season with a 29-27 record, including a 15-15 mark in Big Ten play, which was good enough for a 10th-place finish in the standings. They played well down the stretch, winning nine of their final 12 games, including a sweep of Illinois and a series win over Maryland. They defeated 6th-seeded Indiana 5-2 in their tournament opener on Tuesday afternoon.

The Scarlet Knights offense ranks in the lower half of the Big Ten in most categories, averaging 6.6 runs and 9.7 hits per game. They rank tenth in the conference in batting average (.286), 12th in on-base percentage (.377), 17th in slugging percentage (.412) and 17th in extra base hits (148). That being said, over their last 14 games, Rutgers is averaging 9.5 runs per game, including five games with 10+ runs scored.

As for their pitching staff, Rutgers has a 5.81 team ERA, which ranks 12th in the Big Ten. They rank fifth in strikeouts per nine innings (8.4), tenth in hits allowed per inning (1.04) and 15th in walks per nine innings 5.4). Over their last ten games, Rutgers is giving up 6.3 runs per game.

In games against the RPI Top 100, Rutgers has a 10-18 record, with the offense averaging 5.61 runs per game, while the pitching staff has given up 6.71 runs per game. The Scarlet Knights are 7-9 against common opponents of Iowa. Against those same teams, the Hawkeyes have a 9-8-1 record.

Projected Starting Pitcher

RHP Justin Shadek – A redshirt freshman right-hander, Justin Shadek has started 14 games for Rutgers this season, posting a 7.45 ERA over 58.0 innings, including 51 strikeouts to 49 free bases given up. Opponents are batting .282 against Shadek, averaging 1.10 hits per inning, but free bases have gotten him into plenty of trouble. He has given up four or more free bases in eight of his 14 starts and has a 1.95 WHIP. Shadek has given up 5+ runs in five starts this season, including giving up a season-high seven runs against Penn State. In his start against Iowa, Shadek allowed four runs on two hits over 3.2 innings, including four strikeouts to five free bases given up.

Scarlet Knights Players to Watch

1. OF Trevor Cohen – One of the best hitters in the Big Ten, outfielder Trevor Cohen is seven hits clear of second place in the conference going into this week. One of four players to start all 55 games for the Scarlet Knights, Cohen is slashing .385/.460/.522, with 87 hits, 23 doubles, 36 RBI’s and 19 stolen bases. He has totaled 28 multi-hit games this season, including six hits in the three-game series against the Hawkeyes back in March. Along with his ability to hit and get on-base, Trevor is incredibly hard guy to strikeout, owning an impressively low 5.8% strikeout rate, going on down on strikes in just 15 of 260 plate appearances. Over his last ten games leading into the tournament, Cohen is batting .488, with 20 hits, six extra base hits and a .553 on-base percentage. He was 1/4, with a double against Indiana on Tuesday.

2. 1B Ty Doucette – The lone power bat in a Rutgers lineup that ranks last in the Big Ten in home runs, first baseman Ty Doucette has taken a step forward after productive freshman season a year ago. In 55 starts, Doucette is slashing .342/.427/.544, with 78 hits, 56 runs scored, ten doubles, 12 home runs and a team-high 51 RBI’s. He has totaled 27 multi-hit games this season, but was just 2/10 in the three-game series against Iowa. Doucette is second on the team with 36 walks+hbp, while he also isn’t a huge strikeout candidate, owning a 12.9% strikeout rate. Over his last ten games leading into the tournament, Doucette is batting .425, with 17 hits, eight extra base hits and ten RBI’s. He tallied three hits, including a home run against Indiana on Tuesday.

3. 3B Pablo Santos – With the status of outfielder Peyton Bonds (.302/.385/.432) up in the air after he left the Indiana game with an injury, third baseman Pablo Santos slides into the #3 player to watch spot. In 55 starts, Santos is slashing .274/.344/.403, with 55 hits, 13 doubles, three home runs and 33 RBI’s. He has totaled 17 multi-hit games and is going to put the ball in play the majority of the time. Santos has put the ball in play in 82.6% of his 224 plate appearances, including a low 7.1% strikeout rate. Over his last ten games leading into the tournament, Santos is batting just .257 but has drawn nine of his 15 walks for a .422 on-base percentage. He was 0/4 against Indiana on Tuesday.

Iowa Hawkeyes (32-20-1, 21-9)

The Hawkeyes enter the Big Ten Tournament trending in the wrong direction, finishing the regular season with a 1-8-1 record in their last ten games, including getting swept by Oregon last weekend in Iowa City. Despite seemingly running out of gas down the stretch, Iowa will look to rebound, possibly needing a championship to earn an NCAA Regional berth.

Through the middle part of the season, the Hawkeye offense was one of the best in the Big Ten, averaging 10.17 runs per game over a stretch of 23 games. However, during Iowa’s 1-8-1 finish to the regular season, they averaged just 4.0 runs per game. That being said, they still rank second in the conference in batting average (.297), fourth in slugging percentage (.483) and sixth in on-base percentage (.408).

As for the pitching staff, they’ve been trending in the wrong direction as well, giving up 6.5 runs per game over their last ten games. They are allowing 7.69 hits per nine innings during that stretch, but have compounded it greatly, giving up 6.88 free bases per nine innings.

Entering the Big Ten Tournament, junior infielder Gable Mitchell leads the team in batting average (.333), hits (70) and doubles (17), but did see is on-base streak end at 53 games. Redshirt sophomore catcher/designated hitter Reese Moore leads the team in extra base hits (27) and slugging percentage (.587).

Projected Starting Pitcher

LHP Cade Obermueller – With this game being the decider in Pool C, the Hawkeyes will go with Cade Obermueller to open their stay in Omaha. In 14 starts this season, Obermueller has a 3.30 ERA over 76.1 innings, including 107 strikeouts to 31 strikeouts. However, Cade hasn’t been as sharp over his last three outings, allowing 11 runs on 15 hits over his last 13.0 innings, including 22 strikeouts to ten free bases given up. He did throw 72.2% strikes against Oregon, but in his four starts prior, his strike thrown rate was just 58.5%, throwing 215 of 367 pitches for strikes. They’ll need him to limit free bases against a Rutgers offense that has been trending in the right direction over the last 15 games.

Final Thought

Since Rutgers pulled the upset over Indiana in their tournament opener, this is a must win for the Hawkeyes if they want to advance out of Pool C. There’s not a whole lot else to say about this one. Win and you’re in the semifinals. The key will be a good start from Cade Obermueller, but the offense needs to get back to doing what they were doing in the middle of the season. Grinding out at-bats, doing damage on mistakes and hitting with runners in scoring position. The way the regular season ended, it’d be nice to see Iowa find some extra gas in the tank to make a run in Omaha. That starts today.