Iowa Football Opponent Preview: Michigan State Spartans

It’s been a brutal couple of weeks for the Hawkeyes coming close to wins against #8 Oregon and #17 USC. Instead, they came up short in both games. In the span of just two weeks, Iowa has gone from having a clear path to the College Football Playoff to a 6-4 record. Kirk Ferentz and Co. will look to bounce back this week in the home finale against Michigan State on Saturday.

Head coach Jonathan Smith and the Spartans enter this week with a 3-7 overall record and an 0-7 mark in Big Ten play. In just his second season at the helm, there are rumors that Smith could be fired, as the team his regressed after a 5-7 season a year ago. Michigan State opened with a 3-0 record, defeating Western Michigan, Boston College and Youngstown State, but have lost seven straight games. Last time out, the Spartans lost 28-10 to Penn State in East Lansing.

Last Game: Penn State 28 Michigan State 10

This will be the 51st all-time meeting between the Hawkeyes and Spartans, with Iowa leading the series 25-23-2, but they’ve met just five times in the last decade. Last season, the Hawkeyes traveled to East Lansing and lost 32-20 as a 6.5-point favorite. Iowa opens as an 8.5-point favorite (per BetMGM), which puts Iowa in a spot that they have been successful in as of late. Iowa opened as a 16.5-point favorite (per BetMGM), which is the most they have been favored in a Big Ten game since ’19 against Purdue (-18). Over the last past ten seasons, the Hawkeyes are 8-10-1 against the spread when favored by double digits in Big Ten play. As for Michigan State, they are 9-5 against the spread as an underdog under Jonathan Smith, including 5-1 this season, but they 2-12 straight up and 0-6 this year.

SPARTANS OFFENSE

2025 Numbers: 24.0 PPG, 123.3 RUSH, 212.5 PASS, 335.8 TOTAL

Quarterback

It appears the Aidan Chiles experiment has run its course in East Lansing. After an up and down season last year, many expected him to take off a bit in year two at MSU. Instead, he was bench prior to the Minnesota game in favor of three-star redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic.

A class of ’24 recruit, Milivojevic committed to MSU over offers from Ole Miss, Tulane, Marshall, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan and Ball State. On the season, he has completed 59-of-92 (64.1%) passes for 720 yards and four touchdowns to just one interception. In his two starts, the Spartans are 0-2, falling to Minnesota (OT) and Penn State, but he has completed 37-of-55 (67.3%) passes for 439 yards and one touchdown. Sacks have been a major issue, as he doesn’t have the same mobility as Aidan Chiles. Milivojevic got sacked nine times against Minnesota and five times against Penn State.

Running Back

The Spartans divvy up their touches between three players, but will rely on sophomore Makhi Frazier to carry the majority of the load. Their top three backs have combined for 1.017 yards and eight touchdowns on 211 carries (4.82 ypc).

Their lead back, Makhi Frazier, got just eight touches as a true freshman last season, but has been the top guy in the room this year, averaging 14.2 touches per game. He has rushed for 520 yards and two touchdowns on 116 carries (4.5 ypc) and also has caught 12 passes. Frazier has rushed for 100+ yards in two games, including a season-high 109 yards on 14 carries (7.8 ypc) against Michigan.

They’ll split the rest of the carries between two backs, with Sacramento State transfer Elijah Tau-Tolliver, averaging 5.8 touches per game. It’s interesting that Tau-Tolliver hasn’t gotten more looks, as he is averaging 6.9 yards per carry and 8.1 yards per catch, totaling 419 total yards on 58 total touches (7.22 ypt). He put up 127 yards on 11 carries (11.5 ypc) against Minnesota, while he put up 152 yards on 14 touches (10.9 ypt) this past week against Penn State.

Rounding out the Spartans running back room is sophomore Brandon Tullis. He has rushed for 199 yards on 52 carries (3.8 ypc), but does have four touchdowns, while he has also caught seven passes for 67 yards. The touches for Tullis have been few and far between over the past month, but he did rush for 51 yards against Minnesota.

Wide Receiver / Tight End

The Spartans rank 80th in the country in pass attempts per game (29.7). Their top two pass catchers, Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly have earned 138-of-279 (49.5%) of the targets. However, seven players have tallied at least 15 targets, while the MSU running backs have gotten 16.1% of the target share.

Michigan State’s offensive struggles have not been because of a lack of pass catchers. If the offensive line gives whoever is at quarterback time to throw, the Spartans have a couple of standout receivers, starting with sophomore Nick Marsh. He led the Spartans in receiving yards as a freshman, while he has 48 catches for 559 yards (11.6 ypr) and five touchdowns this season. Marsh is averaging 7.7 targets and 4.8 receptions per game. He has tallied seven games with 75+ receiving yards in his career, but had just two catches for five yards against Penn State.

Middle Tennessee State transfer Omari Kelly has been a great secondary option, earning First Team All-CUSA honors for the Blue Raiders last season. He has caught 41 passes for 544 yards (13.3 ypr) and one touchdown, including a season-high six catches for 133 yards against USC. Kelly is averaging 6.1 targets and 4.1 receptions per game. He does have big game ability going back to his MTSU days, including 239 yards and three touchdowns against WKU last season.

The other receiver to know is Kent State transfer Chrishon McCray. He compiled over 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns over his last two seasons for the Golden Flashes, but has moved to a WR3 role for the Spartans. In nine games, McCray has caught 16 passes for 231 yards (14.4 ypr) and one touchdown. He has three games with 40+ receiving yards, including a season-best four catches for 42 yards against Indiana.

At tight end, senior Jack Velling is the name to know. A consistent contributor in his time at Oregon State and Michigan State, Velling has 104 career catches for over 1,300 yards and 14 touchdowns. He’s third on the team in targets (31) and receptions (23), totaling 203 yards and two touchdowns. Velling had a season-high six catches for 70 yards against Youngstown State.

Offensive Line

Through ten games, the Spartans front ranks 27th in the country in run blocking grade (68.2) and 125th in pass blocking (52.2) per Pro Football Focus. The offensive line has given up 145 pressures on 360 drop backs (40.3%), which ranks 17th in the Big Ten in pressure rate allowed. Wisconsin (43.1%) is the only team that allows a higher pressure rate. Michigan State ranks 104th in the country in rush yards per game, averaging 123.3 rush yards per contest. The Spartans center Matt Gulbin (83.4) is by far the best on the offensive line, ranking 8th in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, right tackle Conner Moore (70.7) ranks 28th, while right guard Caleb Carter (52.6) ranks 76th.

SPARTANS DEFENSE

2025 Numbers: 31.1 PPG, 153.9 RUSH, 217.0 PASS, 370.9 TOTAL

Defensive Line

The Michigan State defensive front has struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, ranking 101st in sacks per game (1.70), recording just 17.0 sacks in ten games. Four different Spartans defensive lineman have recorded multiple sacks, but no one has recorded more than 2.5 sacks. Against the run, they rank 80th in the country giving up 153.9 yards on the ground per game.

Former Middle Tennessee State transfer Quindarius Dunnigan (230 snaps) and junior Jalen Thompson (327 snaps) have made the biggest impact as edge rushers. They’ve combined for 44 tackles, 8.5 tackles, 3.0 sacks and 26 quarterback pressures. The other two contributors, Texas Tech transfer Isaac Smith (235 snaps) and Air Force transfer David Santiago (194 snaps) have combined for 43 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and 17 quarterback pressures.

On the interior, junior Alex VanSumeren (401 snaps) and Florida State transfer Grady Kelly (314 snaps) have played a lot of snaps, with VanSumeren ranked 8th in the Big Ten in snaps played by a defensive tackle. VanSumeren is third on the team in tackles, totaling 47 tackles, while Kelly has 21 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss. They’ve combined for 17 quarterback pressures.

Linebackers

The Spartans defense, under defensive coordinator Joe Rossi, run a 4-2-5 multiple defense, with two linebackers earning the majority of the snaps. They’ve really struggled as a unit, ranking 115th in the country in points allowed per game (31.1), giving up 28+ points in seven games.

Junior Jordan Hall (504 snaps) tallied 91 tackles over his first two seasons, but is on track to nearly surpass that this season, averaging 7.4 tackles per game. He leads the Spartan defense with 74 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and three forced fumbles. Hall has tallied 8+ tackles in four games, including 15 tackles against Boston College and ten tackles against Minnesota. Alongside him is former Old Dominion transfer Wayne Matthews III (561 snaps). He has tallied 181 tackles in four years, including 148 tackles at ODU. This season, Matthews is averaging 5.8 tackles per game, totaling 58 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss. He’s got 8+ tackles in three games, including a season-high ten tackles against Youngstown State.

The Hall/Matthews linebacker duo have been put in coverage quite a bit, combining for 70 targets, allowing 56 catches for 481 yards (6.9 ypt) and four touchdowns. Their combined 70 targets faced is 30 more than any secondary duo (40) has faced this season.

The other names to know are sixth-year senior Darius Snow (204) and BYU transfer Aisea Moa (178). They each average right around 20 snaps per game, but Snow has still been able to rack up 32 tackles, including three games with 6+ tackles. The former Cougar, Aisea Moa, has tallied 12 tackles.

Defensive Backs

The Michigan State secondary, through ten games, has struggled mightily, allowing opponents to complete just 67.6% of passes for 2,170 yards (11.3 ypr) and 19 touchdowns. They’ve only intercepted three passes, which ranks 121st in the country. Their 72.5 coverage grade ranks 88th in the country per PFF.

The Spartans have had a number of players record snaps at corner, with six players facing at least ten targets. UConn transfer Malcolm Bell (582 snaps), Texas State transfer Joshua Eaton (366 snaps) and true freshman Aydan West (249 snaps) are the three that have been on the field the most. They combined for 61 tackles, but have allowed 35 catches on 54 targets for 496 yards (9.19 ypt) and seven touchdowns to zero interceptions.

Rounding out the MSU defense with the safety position, they got a break getting sophomore Nikai Martinez (197 snaps) back in the lineup a couple weeks back. He totaled 51 tackles last season, which led all returners, but has played in just four games this season. Martinez was good in coverage last season, allowing 11 catches on 21 targets for 112 yards (5.3 ypt), while he has five interceptions to four touchdowns given up for his career. Junior Malik Spencer (550 snaps) will be the other starter and is fourth on the team with 42 tackles, while he has given up 13 catches on 18 targets for 177 yards (9.8 ypt) and a touchdown.

SPARTANS SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Martin Connington: 10/14 FG, 20/21 PAT, LNG 50

Punter Ryan Eckley: 38 punts, 1,883 yds, 49.5 AVG, 15 In20, LNG 60

Kick Returner Alante Brown: 3 returns, 122 yds, 40.7 AVG, LNG 63

Punt Returner Omari Kelly: 10 returns, 140 yds, 14.0 AVG, LNG 83

FINAL THOUGHT

This is a must win if the Hawkeyes want to salvage the season. The entire year has been one tough pill to swallow, and you could argue that they are 5-6 plays from sitting in fantastic shape with a 10-0 record. Just because they are 6-4 instead, does not mean that there’s nothing left to play for. Closing out the regular season with wins over Michigan State and Nebraska would likely send the Hawkeyes to Tampa to face an SEC team in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Who wouldn’t want a chance to finish out the season with a win over an SEC opponent? This is a struggling Michigan State squad that is trending towards firing their head coach. Hawkeyes have to take care of business on Senior Day.