Iowa WBB Tip Time Preview - Northwestern

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (6-8) at #12 IOWA HAWKEYES (12-4)

TIME: 6:30pm

TV: BTN+ – John Evans and Michael Merrick

SERIES: 70th Meeting – Iowa leads the series 59-10

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 86.6 PPG, 49.2% FG, 37.2% 3PT, 13.4 TO NORTHWESTERN: 64.6 PPG, 38.9% FG, 25.8% 3PT, 17.9 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.6 PPG, 40.5% FG, 31.6% 3PT, 15.5 TO, +4.9 REB MARGIN NORTHWESTERN: 70.3 PPG, 39.2% FG, 30.5% 3PT, 16.6 TO, -2.1 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.2 PPG, 7.4 REB, 6.7 AST, 36.6% 3PT

6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.8 PPG, 3.8 REB, 3.1 AST, 46.5% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.6 PPG, 30.7% FG

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 12.3 PPG, 5.8 REB, 44.9% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.6 PPG, 6.7 REB, 62.6% FG

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

5’6 G Kaylah Rainey – 5.0 PPG, 3.5 AST, 31.0% FG

6’3 F Caileigh Walsh – 12.0 PPG, 5.2 REB, 25.0% 3PT

5’11 G Sydney Wood – 11.5 PPG, 4.9 REB, 2.9 AST, 34.5% 3PT

5’11 G Jasmine McWilliams – 3.0 PPG, 35.3% FG

6’1 F Paige Mott – 6.6 PPG, 4.3 REB, 53.0% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: PG Caitlin Clark

You could probably get away with putting Caitlin as the player to watch every single night, but she could be in for an even better game tonight. Last year in three games against the Wildcats, Clark averaged 25.6 points, 8.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. However, she also had 22 turnovers against the Northwestern ‘Blizzard’ defense. That was due in large part to the impact Veronica Burton had on the defensive end of the floor.

Now Burton plays for the Dallas Wings in the WNBA and Northwestern isn’t the same team they were with her on the roster. Look for Caitlin Clark to not only cut down the turnovers, but get into triple-double territory this evening.

KEY MATCHUP: Iowa Offense vs Northwestern ‘Blizzard’ Defense

The Hawkeyes turned it over 58 times (19.3 per gm) in three games against Northwestern last year. It’s a defense that has been the storyline for every opponent that the Wildcats face.

“You have to prepare for Northwestern differently,” said Kate Martin. “Maybe different sets or just try to mimic that zone with the practice guys or our players. We had some difficulties, but there’s a lot of opportunities to break down their zone.”

“A zone defense and they put that second person in the high post area and they’ll switch on all ball screens in that area,” said Lisa Bluder. “If you go to a four out, she’ll come out, but she’s there to stop all the drive action into the high post…(in a zone), you’re susceptible area is the high post and so her being there is a really big factor. She can go down and double the post if she wants to.”

The player that kind of roams the high post area is deemed the ‘stopper’ and for the last four seasons it was Veronica Burton. She did the job well, as she was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year three times. Now, fifth year senior Sydney Wood takes over the role of ‘stopper’ for the Wildcats.

“She’s 5’11, so she is just taller and can cover a little bit more ground and trap a little harder,” said Bluder. “(Joe McKeown) is not playing as much of his own defense. He’s like 65-35 right now, where it used to be be 85-15.”

Although the ‘Blizzard’ name stays the same, the defense has been more of a snow shower this season. Last year, the Wildcats allowed 63.9 ppg and now oppponents are averaging 70.3 ppg, while the ‘Cats are 204th in defensive rating.

THE PICK

Last year Northwestern finished with a 17-12 record and narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament. A good portion of that team is back, but one big piece is missing. Veronica Burton.

“They lost Burton and Burton was the main cog of their offense and defense,” said Bluder. “I don’t know if they realized how much of a cog she was until she was out of the mix and now they’re going through some growing pains without her.”

They come into the game with a 6-8 record, including an 0-9 record against Quad 1-2 teams. They are 0-7 against ranked teams with an average margin of defeat of 23.6 points per game.

Forward Caliegh Walsh and guard Sydney Wood are the two biggest offensive threats in the starting lineup for an Northwestern offense that ranks 172nd in the country in points per game. Walsh leads the team in points (12.0), rebounds (5.2) and shots per game (11.0). She was shooting 38.2% from behind the arc after eight games, but is just 2/26 (7.7%), so she might be due for a good night.

Sydney Wood played in just four games last season due to an injury, but has been a consistent force on both ends of the floor. She has scored in double figures ten times in her last 12 games, while also averaging 2.5 steals per game. She has 3+ steals in eight games this season.

Everyone else in the Wildcats starting lineup is avering 6.6 points or less per game. Guard Paige Mott is averaging 6.6 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, but is also only taking just 5.5 shots per game, despite shooting it 53.0% from the floor. G Kaylah Rainey leads the team in assists per game (3.5), but is only averaging 5.0 ppg. G Jasmine McWilliams rounds out the projected starting lineup avearging 3.0 points per game.

Off the bench, the Wildcats have a couple of options to keep an eye on. Guard Jillian Brown has started nine games, but has come off the bench in the last six games. She has still averaged 18.7 minutes per game over the last six games and has averaged 7.7 points per game this season. Forward Courtney Shaw is a threat on the offensive boards averaging 5.5 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes and 18.1 minutes per game. Despite those numbers, she is averaging just 5.4 points and 1.9 offensive rebounds per game against ranked teams.

Here are some important stats to know going into tonight’s matchup…

2pt FG: Iowa 5th (56.5%) Northwestern 191st (44.1%)

3pt FG: Iowa 18th (37.2%) Northwestern 319th (25.8%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 84th (37.7%) Northwestern 270th (28.4%)

TO: Iowa 29th (13.4) Northwestern 260th (17.9)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 9th (111.6) Northwestern 250th (84.7)

Def Pts/ 100 Possesions: Iowa 169th (90.9) Northwestern 204th (92.6)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 19th (77.0) Northwestern 27th (76.3)

Off Rebounding: Northwestern (29.8%) Iowa 311th (25.8%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 7th (76.8%) Northwestern 219th (67.4%)

The Wildcats don’t have the same bite they had a year ago when they defeated the Hawkeyes at Carver and pushed them to the brink two more times. It is also an Iowa starting lineup that has faced the ‘Blizzard’ defense five times already and now the ‘Cats are at their weakest point over the last couple years.

WarrenNolan.com predicts Iowa to win 86-59 and I also believe that the Hawkeyes will win this game comfortably. Iowa is top 25 in points per 100 possesions and possesions per game, while Northwestern is top 30 in possessions per game and 204th in points allowed per 100 possessions. That is not a good combination. IOWA 88 NORTHWESTERN 62