Iowa Women's Basketball Tip Time Preview: Western Illinois Leathernecks

WESTERN ILLINOIS LEATHERNECKS (4-0, 0-0) AT #11 IOWA HAWKEYES (6-0, 0-0)

TIME: 6:30pm CT

TV: BTN+ – AJ Reisetter and Sam Kupres

SERIES: 12th Meeting – Iowa leads the series 9-2, including seven straight wins

BY THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 83.3 PPG, 49.2% FG, 32.6% 3PT, 15.2 TO WESTERN ILLINOIS: 88.5 PPG, 49.0% FG, 39.2% 3PT, 10.3 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 51.0 PPG, 30.8% FG, 25.3% 3PT, 17.7 TO, +16.2 REB MARGIN WESTERN ILLINOIS: 62.0 PPG, 42.4% FG, 34.2% 3PT, 17.8 TO, +13.5 REB MARGIN

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Taylor Stremlow	Point Guard	5-10/ Soph.	Averaging 6.8 PPG, 2.7 AST and 17.6 MIN. Leads the team in steals (12), third in assists (16). 7 pts, 8 reb, 5 ast vs Miami FL
Taylor McCabe	Guard	5-9/ Sr.	Averaging 7.7 PPG, 5.5 REB, 2.7 AST and 25.5 MIN. Career-high 68 made threes LY. Has made multiple threes in five of six games. 11 pts, 8 reb, 2 ast vs Miami FL
Kylie Feuerbach	Guard	6-0/ Grad Sr.	Averaging 4.2 PPG, 2.8 AST and 20.8 MIN. Second on the team in assists (17) and steals (11). Played in 139 career games, including 66 starts. 3 pts, 4 reb, 5 ast vs Miami FL
Hannah Stuelke	Forward	6-2/ Sr.	Averaging 12.5 PPG, 8.3 REB and 27.7 MIN. Second on the team in field goals (33) and rebounds (50). Double figures scoring in five of six games. 17 pts, 12 reb vs Miami FL
Ava Heiden	Center	6-4/ Soph.	Averaging 15.8 PPG, 8.8 REB and 24.1 MIN. Leads the team in rebounds (53), field goals (38) and points (95). 20 pts, 6 reb vs Miami FL

WESTERN ILLINOIS LEATHERNECKS PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Kaylen Reed	Guard	5-5/ Jr.	Averaging 5.5 PPG, 3.3 REB, 3.8 AST and 29.0 MIN. Leads the team in assists (15). Played in just seven games last season due to injury. 2 pts, 6 reb, 2 ast vs Bradley
Allie Meadows	Guard	5-8 / Sr.	Averaging 9.5 PPG and 32.0 MIN. Leads the team in made threes (8). Made 58 threes and played a program record 1,240 minutes last season. 6 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast vs Bradley
Addi Brownfield	Guard	5-9/ Sr.	Averaging 10.8 PPG, 5.5 REB and 31.8 MIN. Tallied 100+ assists in back-to-back seasons. Second on the team in assists (11). 19 pts, 5 reb vs Bradley
Raegan McCowan	Guard	6-0/ Jr.	Averaging 17.0 PPG, 6.8 REB and 25.0 MIN. First Team All-OVC. Scored 20+ points in 12 games last season. Second on the team in rebounds (27). 8 pts, 9 reb vs Bradley
Mia Nicastro	Forward	6-2/ Sr.	Averaging 26.3 PPG, 11.3 REB and 32.0 MIN. First Team All-OVC. Leads the team in points (105), rebounds (45) and made field goals (40). Scored 20+ in all four games. 23 pts, 9 reb vs Bradley

WESTERN ILLINOIS PLAYER TO WATCH: Forward Mia Nicastro

It’s not very often that any team, let alone a mid-major team, has a returning player that ranked top ten in the country in scoring a year ago and they aren’t the key player to watch. However, senior forward Mia Nicastro, a First Team All-OVC selection last season, has been the go-to scorer and rebounder for the Leathernecks. She’s averaging an incredible 16.8 shot attempts and 26.3 points per game, while she’s gotten on the glass a ton as well, pulling down 11.3 rebounds per contest. Nicastro has tallied 32+ points/rebounds in all four games, including 23 points, 11 rebounds against Bradley, as well as 33 points, 17 rebounds against Chicago State.

Although 63 of her 67 field goal attempts have come from two-point range, just 18 of them have come at the rim. She’s shooting 60.9% (14/23) on non-rim paint two’s and 66.7% (6/9) on midrange jumpers. Going up against 6’4 Ava Heiden and 6’5 Layla Hays, it’s important that Nicastro can score away from the rim.

KEY MATCHUP TO WATCH: Western Illinois’ unbalanced scoring vs Iowa frontcourt

It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Western Illinois is able to score points against Iowa the way that they have against other opponents to start this season. Through four games, the Leathernecks have scored 59.3% of their points from two-point range and average 38.5 points in the paint per game. They’ll be going up against an Iowa defense that is holding opponents to just 34.6% shooting from two-point range and 18.0 points in the paint per game. The Hawkeyes hold a distinct height advantage too, with their top three frontcourt players standing at a combined 227 inches compared to 218 inches for the Leathernecks.

SCOUTING THE LEATHERNECKS

The Leathernecks are coming off of a 15-17 season that saw them appear in the WNIT, which was the program’s first postseason trip since 2018 (WNIT). Head coach JD Gravina is in his 14th season at the helm, leading WIU to a 199-198 record, including an NCAA Tournament appearance back in 2017. Western Illinois was picked third in the OVC preseason poll and enters this matchup with a 4-0 record.

Looking at the rest of the Leathernecks projected starting five, 6-foot-0 guard Raegan McCowan was a prolific scorer for WIU last season, averaging 22.3 points per game, which was good for tenth-most in the country and fourth-most amongst mid-major players. The McCowan/Nicastro duo has carried the team so far, with Raegan averaging 17.0 points and 6.8 rebounds per game for a combined 61.4 points/rebounds per game between the two. Last season, for a WIU team that went to the WNIT, McCowan shot 46.5% from the floor and scored 20+ points in 12 games, including a season-high 35 points on four occasions. In two games against P4 opponents last season, McGowan put up 41 points and 19 rebounds. She can score at all three levels, shooting 55.3% (156/282) in the paint, 36.3% (66/182) in the midrange and 35.0% (36/103) from three-point range.

Although WIU doesn’t attempt many three-pointers, but that doesn’t mean they are completely without three-point shooters. Senior Allie Meadows has made 92 three-pointers over the last two seasons at a 36.4% clip. She only scored in double figures in seven games, but made multiple threes in 17 games, including a season-high 7-of-7 from behind the arc against Chicago State. Meadows leads the way with eight triples through four games, averaging 9.5 points per game, but is just 2-of-8 from inside the arc, despite shooting 52.5% from two-point range last season.

Senior guard Addi Brownfield has been a three-year contributor for the Leathernecks, appearing in 98 games with 81 starts. She’s been a consistent contributor, averaging 9.3 points per game during the course of her career, including scoring in double figures in 15 games last year, with a season-high 18 points coming against UT-Martin. Brownfield only shot 34.0% from the floor, but is coming off of a 19-point, 5-rebound night against Bradley where she was 6-of-10 from the floor and 3-of-3 from three-point range.

Rounding out the Leathernecks projected starting lineup, junior guard Kaylen Reed closes out a guard heavy lineup. A player in a new role this season, Reed averaged 11.5 minutes per game as a true freshman and suffered a season-ending injury after seven games last season. She’s got 15 assists, and 22 points scored over four games this season, while she tallied 55 assists to 83 points over her first 36 career games. Reed is averaging 5.5 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists.

Off the WIU bench, NAIA Columbia College transfer forward Mallory Shetley is the name to know. She was a First Team All-AMC and All-Defensive Team selection, averaging 17.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. Shetley left the Cougars program as the all-time leading scorer with 2,197 points. The NAIA transfer was solid over her first two games, combining for 23 points and 11 rebounds, but has just 12 points and one rebound over the last two. Shetley is 16-of-20 (80.0%) from the floor and has not attempted a three-pointer.

Shooting Heat Maps (CBB Analytics): Iowa and Western Illinois

A deeper look at the advanced stats behind the matchup between the Hawkeyes and Leathernecks…

THE PICK

After two grinding, adversity filled victories in Orlando, the Hawkeyes would benefit from a comfortable win before things ramp back up with a top-tier mid-major (Fairfield), the beginning of Big Ten play (at Rutgers) and a potential top ten showdown on the road (at Iowa State). Western Illinois is a legit contender to win the Ohio Valley and make the NCAA Tournament, but with the way they try to score, there’s concern about how they will fare against a team like Iowa. The Hawkeyes are far taller and more athletic on the interior, which will limit the paint opportunities for a team that scores 43.5% of their points in the paint. The other big red flags for the Leathernecks? They’re averaging just 5.0 made threes per game, allowing 0.944 points per possession in three games against DI opponents and are facing a team that ranks 12th in the country in rebound margin (+16.2). I’m not quite sure they hit the 31-point line Torvik has projected, but they will win comfortably. IOWA 82 WESTERN ILLINOIS 56