Tuesdays with Torbee

It’s been hotter than two rats wrestling in a wool sock for much of August, the humidity making Iowa feel like a corn sweat–stained tank top in dire need of wringing out.

Yet the calendar says college football is right around the corner. Two of our corn belt brethren – Iowa State and Kansas State – are set to battle it out in cooler conditions over in Dublin, Ireland in less than a week.

That means it’s time for the annual Tuesdays With Torbee season preview and prediction.

In last year’s preview, I predicted Iowa to go 9-3 in the regular season, losing for sure to Ohio State, with six “sure win” games and five “toss ups.” Frustratingly, Iowa did worse in the “sure wins,” dropping a home game to Iowa State and a road game to a very mediocre Michigan State, than it did in the “toss ups,” where they notched a healthy 4-1 record. The only toss up loss came against UCLA in the Rose Bowl, which has been a house of horrors for Hawkeyes my entire life.

I also said I expected the stingy defense to be the team’s strength (check), the offense a run-heavy work-in-progress while showing signs of improvement under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester (check), but question marks at quarterback and receiver that would prevent Iowa from a second consecutive Big Ten Championship game (check). Those predictions were nearly spot on, ruined only by a preposterous 53-yard, game-winning kick by Iowa State’s freshman placekicker in a game Iowa gave away.

Heading into 2025, I’m not quite as optimistic about the final record, but in some ways I’m more bullish on the program overall. After the offensive abominations of 2022 and 2023 – which featured maybe the worst quarterback play in college football – at least things feel different. How strange is it that the Iowa offense might actually have to carry more of the load, assisting a young, talented but unproven defense?

Looking back at 2024, it’s interesting that Iowa actually blew out a few of the teams I had listed in the “toss up” category. The Gophers were shellacked 31-14, the usually tough Badgers were destroyed 42-10, the defending CFP participant Washington Huskies were dominated 40-16, and the typically pesky Northwestern Wildcats were humbled 40-14. It was the close road games (and the aforementioned debacle in Kinnick against the Clones) that separated a pretty good season from an excellent one.

On paper, the schedule looks a bit tougher, but the ebbs and flows of program strength always make preseason prognostication a fool’s errand. As it always seems to be with Iowa, if the offensive and defensive lines are stout, the Hawks should have a shot to win most games. The biggest complaint from Iowa fans in recent years is that despite being a winning program, the Hawkeyes haven’t humbled a blue blood in a while. The “Kinnick at Night” type thrillers over Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State have been scarce. The good news is Iowa will have the opportunity to win a statement game or two this season. The question is, do they have the firepower?

Here’s how I see 2025 playing out:

Should Wins

• Albany – Who knew Great Danes could play football? Heck, who knew UAlbany even had a football team? An easy tune-up against a mid-level FCS school should be a drama-free way to ease into the season.
• UMass – The domination of East Coast programs that play bad football continues here. The Minutemen played three Power 5 schools last season and were outscored 149-44. Woof.
• Rutgers – Some say Greg Schiano has Rutgers back on track, but the Knights are 0-4 versus Kirk Ferentz and Iowa by a combined 92-17. Friday night lights in New Jersey should still be friendly for the Hawks.
• Wisconsin – A Camp Randall road game in a historically tight series a “should win”? Maybe last year’s dominance has me bamboozled, but I haven’t seen a Badger team this soft since the Don Morton days, when more people cheered for the Fifth Quarter than the game.
• Minnesota – Kind of the same as Wisconsin. The Gophers have a nice little program, but Iowa tends to push them around in Kinnick. Plus, it’s clear Ferentz takes great pleasure in tweaking the elite Peej Fleck whenever he can.

Toss Ups

• Iowa State – The Cyclones are riding high, ranked in the AP Top 20, coming off a nice bowl win and expecting to handle Iowa with relative ease. Of course, Cyclone fans neglect to mention it felt like Iowa would win for about 58 of the 60 minutes in last year’s contest. Credit to Iowa State for making winning plays in the fourth quarter, but again, Iowa gave that game away. Winning in Ames is definitely do-able.
  
  
• Michigan State – A Senior Day revenge game looking to make amends for the most inexplicable and ugly loss from the prior season. However, Iowa just looked outmatched in the trenches against the pesky Spartans. I’m calling this a toss-up out of respect.
  
  
• Indiana – The most intriguing game of the season, in my opinion, and one that could be pivotal for Iowa exceeding expectations. Was last year’s Hoosier team that snuck into the CFP a flash-in-the-pan that caught people by surprise and rode a relatively easy schedule to an historic season? This game inside Kinnick may go a long way to answering that question.
  
  
• Nebraska – I was tempted to put them in “should win” on account of Iowa always winning.
  That said, the games really have all come down to a late score, with Iowa hilariously always making the play. Word out of Lincoln is this is THE YEAR the huskers are finally back! Where have we heard that before, lol.

Likely Losses

• Penn State – The Nittany Lions have legitimate national title aspirations this season and a boatload of talent. Iowa has shocked them both at home and on the road when they’ve had loaded rosters, but until Iowa proves it can compete with the blue bloods again, it’s hard to see a path to victory here, even at home.
  
  
• Oregon – Again, homefield advantage against a west coast team makes it tempting to pencil Iowa in for a shock victory here. But the Ducks are also brimming with talent and looking for big wins to boost their CFP bonafides. They are going to want to dispel rumors of Kinnick being a death trap for good teams.

• USC – Until I see a Hawkeye team NOT look like hot garbage on the road in California or Arizona, I will always assume a bad loss.

On paper, that’s five “should wins,” four “toss ups,” and three “likely losses.” Call it 5-0 in the shoulds, split the toss ups to get to 7-2, and snag one shocker from the likely losses. That makes me officially predict an 8-4, solid season.

Not quite CFP level, but still good enough to keep Iowa in the competitive top half of a stronger-than-ever Big Ten. Closing the gap with the blue bloods matters, and I’m hoping an 8-win 2025 campaign shows evidence of that happening.

Follow me on BlueSky @torybrecht.bsky.social, Substack notes and look for the revamped 12 Saturdays podcast on all platforms.