Pick and Preview: Kansas State at TCU

KSO will look at a handful of categories each week when previewing the Kansas State game on Saturday. We discuss factors to keep in mind for the Wildcats, what K-State needs to learn, the players to watch and a final prediction.

FOUR FACTORS FOR KANSAS STATE

1. TIMING: TCU has been through a gauntlet, and I do question how much is left in the tank from both an emotional and physical standpoint. Sonny Dykes had to play his former team (SMU). The Horned Frogs faced Kansas in Lawrence when it was the site of College GameDay, and then they came from behind (24-7) to knock off Oklahoma State in Fort Worth a week ago. Not to mention, it took two overtimes.

2. LIMITING EXPLOSIVES: Kansas State already beat the best defense in the league when they took down Iowa State in Ames. They’ll have to now dethrone the best offense in the league on Saturday night when they visit TCU. Unquestionably, the Horned Frogs have the most explosive offense in the league. That is why they have had such few red zone opportunities. On the flip side, K-State is in the top four in the league at limiting explosiveness and they have the top pass defensive efficiency in the Big 12.

3. MORE EFFICIENCY: Speaking of efficiency, Kansas State needs more of it on the offensive end. While they have leaned on the running game quite a bit this season and have a higher rushing rate than any other team in the conference, their success rate is pretty poor. The Wildcats are relying on explosive runs from Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn. That is all well and good, but the Frogs can score in bunches and just hoping for lightning in a bottle isn’t always a winning strategy.

4. ADJUSTING TO CONDITIONS: Has anyone looked at the weather forecast? They keep expecting windier and windier conditions inside Amon G. Carter Stadium. Who does that benefit? I’m not sure. While TCU does deploy an air raid system, they have been more effective when running it in terms of success rate. That is also where they shredded Oklahoma State. At the same time, the Horned Frogs’ run defense is pretty porous when it comes to success rate. And K-State loves to run the ball, even if it has been reliant on the big play.

WHAT THE WILDCATS NEED TO LEARN

1. DEFENSIVE ACUMEN: Kansas State has either the No. 1 or No. 2 defense in the Big 12, depending on what metric one wants to consider. It’s the Wildcats and Cyclones atop nearly every meaningful category on that side of the ball. But is that deceiving? They have faced some of the worst offenses the conference has to offer in Iowa State and Texas Tech. The same could be said about the TCU offense, though. Are they just capitalizing on playing meager defenses in Colorado, SMU, Kansas and Oklahoma?

2. STEADY IMPROVEMENT: Throwing the ball could be complicated if the expected weather in Fort Worth materializes on Saturday, but can K-State still show glimpses and signs of an improving offense? That’s a question I’ll be watching to see if it is answered. If the Kansas State defense is the real deal, they are tangible progress on the offensive side of the ball away from being a legitimate threat for a Big 12 championship.

3. BIG 12 TITLE CONTENDERS: That brings us to our final point. What does K-State need to learn? How about finding out that they have the inside track to Arlington and have set up huge home contests with Oklahoma State and Texas?

SATURDAY STARS

Deuce Vaughn: Quite simply, he is due. Vaughn hasn’t scored since the Missouri game and he had just 23 rushing yards versus Iowa State. On top of that, the TCU run defense is pretty leaky on the year.

Felix Anudike-Uzomah: The Horned Frogs have to block Felix Anudike-Uzomah before I pick someone else. They certainly didn’t do so last year when he tallied six sacks.

Malik Knowles: Ty Zentner has been struggling, and quite frankly, punting isn’t going to give you a win over TCU. Neither is kicking field goals. The Horned Frogs don’t do a lot of punting, but the kick return game could have an opportunity. That’s where Malik Knowles comes into the picture.

PREDICTION

I’m big on the anatomy of the schedule, as coined by ESPN basketball analyst Fran Fraschilla. When and where you play teams matters a lot. It often is overlooked. For instance, Kansas State would rather play Baylor early, like they did Oklahoma. Instead, they’ll receive a heck of a shot from the Bears later in the season.

Playing TCU on October 22 is a good omen. It’s coming on the heels of three consecutive emotional wins for the Horned Frogs.

It is my belief that K-State will also play one of their better games on the year and keep the TCU offense more at bay than any other opponent has thus far this season. For those that think the Wildcat defense is a product of bad offenses, they’ve held every team under their scoring average.

If that trend continues, I love their chances in Fort Worth. Kansas State remains unscathed in Big 12 play on the back of a solid running game in tricky conditions and a defense that solidifies themselves as one of the better units in the country.

K-State pulls away with a late drive that results in a touchdown that gives them a 34-20 victory over the Frogs.