Pick and preview: Kansas State vs Nevada in the Cayman Islands

FOUR FACTORS FOR KANSAS STATE

1. TAKE CARE OF THE BALL: Turnovers continue to be a problem for Kansas State. It popped up again for Jerome Tang’s club on Monday evening in the Cayman Islands despite blowing out Rhode Island. The worst perpetrators were Desi Sills and Keyontae Johnson. Sills’ rust continues to contribute to that, but I don’t see it being a consistent issue for Johnson. Nevada isn’t a bad defensive club under Steve Alford and will try to exploit it.

2. DEFENSE WITHOUT FOULING: Defensively, K-State continues to make it an even battle for the most part on the glass. But they haven’t played good on that end without fouling for a couple of contests. They certainly put the Rams at the charity stripe a lot last night. If it happens again, it is a way that the Wolf Pack can keep the game close. Not to mention, Nevada has excelled at creating contact that sends them to the charity stripe.

3. START FAST: An advantage that could emerge for Kansas State is that they are deeper. As my astute podcast partner Cole Manbeck pointed out on Monday evening, the player that logged the most minutes for the Wildcats was Johnson with 30. Everyone else was under 30. On the other hand, Nevada mostly played with just seven guys. Jarod Lucas logged 36 minutes of action and Kenan Blackshear was on the court for 38 minutes. That could matter when playing games in back-to-back days.

4. BENCH: Despite pacing his guys a bit in the first contest, it will take everyone since it will be three games in three days. K-State needs a great bench performance from at least one player, perhaps playing in excess of 20 minutes, each game. That was Tykei Greene against Rhode Island. I’ll have my eye on someone like Dorian Finister, Ismael Massoud, Abayomi Iyiola or Desi Sills in game number two.

WHAT THE WILDCATS NEED TO LEARN

1. CONDITIONING: I love that the Kansas State head coach kept a close eye on his guy’s minutes in the first game. They recorded the win and also paced them and didn’t have them rack up unnecessary time on the floor with two other games to come as well. Does that benefit them on Tuesday? And some are still catching up to speed at K-State, like Johnson and Sills. Games in back-to-back days could be an interesting to watch for those two in particular. Desi played 27 minutes off the bench on Monday. He actually played more than Markquis Nowell.

2. SECOND HALF: The second halves have been rough this season for Kansas State. They fell asleep against Cal. They were sloppy for most of the Kansas City contest and seemed to fade away on Monday evening in the second frame versus the Rams. Playing a strong second 20 minutes would be nice to see from K-State.

3. COACHING SCOUT: Though they scouted each team before they made it to the Cayman Islands, we’ll find out and discover if the beefed up staff helps Kansas State in preparation on short rest with little time to prepare in between games. I’m expecting them to win this part of the battle with Nevada.

KANSAS STATE STARS

CAM CARTER: Despite starting, Cam Carter only spent 23 minutes on the court against Rhode Island. Might he be a larger factor versus the Wolf Pack because of that? That would be a great lift for K-State.

MARKQUIS NOWELL: He was a stud on Monday night and Kansas State will need him to be one again against Nevada. They clamp down on the defensive end and make it tough to hit open shots. That makes creating that much more important. That should fall into the hands of K-State guards Nowell and Sills.

FAN’S VIEW

Kansas State faces long time Division I coach Steve Alford and the Nevada Wolf Pack in round two of the Cayman Islands Classic. Alford is in his 28th season as a head coach at this level and his fourth at his current school after previous stops at UCLA, New Mexico, Iowa and Missouri State.

Alford has not made the postseason yet with the Wolf Pack after four NCAA Tournament appearances and three Sweet 16s with UCLA before being fired in Westwood.

Nevada defeated KenPom No. 74 Tulane in the first round 75-66 and has another solid win this season over No. 103 Grand Canyon that has contributed to their 5-0 start this season.

Last year was a disappointment when they finished 13-18 and eighth in the Mountain West. Three of the top four scorers from that team are gone, but Alford brought in an impact transfer and returned several key players for this year’s squad.

Alford’s history features teams that are really good on offense, typically playing at a faster pace and shooting the ball well while taking good care of the basketball. Remember, K-State really likes to run as well this season.

Nevada hasn’t been great at shooting thus far this season (48.8 percent eFG%, No. 202) or on the offensive glass (24.8 percent offensive rebounding rate, No. 260), but they get to the free throw line in bunches. They are No. 5 in the country in free throw rate, attempting 27 per game and making 75.6 percent. Nearly 29 percent of their points come from free throws.

The Wolf Pack are slightly above average in taking care of the ball (18.7 percent turnover rate, No. 164).

Their defense has been excellent at protecting the rim and forcing tough shots. The eFG% (effective field goal percentage) allowed ranks No. 3 nationally at 35.8 percent. Opponents only make 36.3 percent from two-point range (No. 3) and Nevada blocks 18.5 percent of opponent’s two-point shots (No. 7).

Teams also have a tough time from distance, hitting only 23.5 percent of their threes versus the Wolf Pack (No. 14).

Nevada is above average on the defensive glass (27.3 percent offensive rebounding rate allowed, No. 149) and below average at forcing turnovers and allowing opponent free throw attempts. In his previous three seasons at Nevada, Alford’s teams have been best on the defensive glass.

Oregon State transfer guard Jarod Lucas leads Nevada in scoring to start this season. Lucas was a key player in the Beavers’ Elite Eight run in 2021 and started 54 games there. He averaged 10.3 points per game and hit 38 percent from beyond the arc.

Lucas takes 30 percent of the Wolf Pack shots this year and is averaging 17 points per game, hitting 36 percent from deep on over seven attempts per game while also hitting 87 percent from the free throw line with six attempts per game. 

Kenan Blackshear is another good guard in his second year at Nevada after transferring from Florida Atlantic. He averaged 9.4 points per game and 2.7 assists per game last year and has upped that to 11.8 and 6.2 this season.

He is struggling from the perimeter at only 18.2% on the season, but he hit 34.1 percent from deep last season. Blackshear is a good rebounding guard at 7.4 per game.

Big man Will Baker is familiar after spending his freshman year at Texas. The seven-footer who can shoot from deep is in his second season with the Wolfpack and averaging 10 points per game this year along with 4.5 rebounds and hitting 37.5 percent from three-point land.

Darrion Williams is a 6-foot-6 swing averaging 9.0 points and leading the team with 7.8 rebounds per game. He also leads the team in efficiency at 1.39. Forward Tre Coleman is in his third season and started 44 games his first two years. He’s an efficient player at 1.29 and averaging 7.6 points and 2.6 rebounds per contest.

Nevada’s best two bench players did not play against Tulane. Guard Daniel Foster injured his ankle before the tournament, but he had three starts earlier this season. Big man KJ Hymes hurt his back in warm-ups and did not play. The reserve big had one start and is averaging 9.0 points and 4.5 rebounds per game this season.

Nevada’s best remaining reserves are freshman forward Nick Davidson (7.6 points per game, 4.6 rebounds per game) and freshman guard Trey Pettigrew (6.3 points per game, 2.5 rebounds per game).

It will be the first test for Kansas State against experienced guards and a solid, experienced coach. Lucas and Blackshear will provide a challenge, along with Baker inside. Game two of a tournament is another factor, something that Alford has been part of numerous times.

Hopefully the large staff at K-State and advanced preparation can help counter that. I expect it to be a back-and-forth battle that will go down to the final minute. Kansas State’s own experience with Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson will put them over the top.

K-State 80 – Nevada 77

DY’S PREDICTION

I also see it as a tougher game for Kansas State. Because both teams like to play fast, there should be a lot of possessions and a potential for a lot of points because of that, but both are not necessarily known for their shooting percentages either.

K-State has been pretty efficient just due to how open they find their guys due to great ball movement and spacing. It just hasn’t been consistent. On the flip side, Nevada is known for playing great defense that limits open looks.

And on the other end, the Wolf Pack are great at getting to the free throw line and that has been an issue for the Kansas State defense, even if it has been the only one for the most part. If they avoid fouling at a high rate, K-State should prevail.

Kansas State 76 – Nevada 72