Pick and preview: Oklahoma State at Kansas State

KSO will look at a handful of categories each week when previewing the Kansas State game on Saturday. We discuss factors to keep in mind for the Wildcats, what K-State needs to learn, the players to watch and a final prediction.

FOUR FACTORS FOR KANSAS STATE

1. HEALTH: How healthy is Kansas State? We’ll find out soon. Both Adrian Martinez and Will Howard were dinged up at TCU and the starting quarterback for K-State is a game-time decision, according to offensive coordinator Collin Klein. Deuce Vaughn and Felix Anudike-Uzomah are not 100 percent. Josh Hayes and Julius Brents were receiving medical attention in Fort Worth but are expected to play. We know that they’ll likely be without linebacker Daniel Green. Oklahoma State has their own issues, and the status of running back Dominic Richardson, receiver Braydon Johnson, defensive lineman Brock Martin and safety Jason Taylor will be important to follow.

2. THIRD DOWN: Kansas State has been porous on third down as an offense this year. Their conversion rate is last in the Big 12. On the flip side, the Cowboys have been the best third down defense in the Big 12 and top five in the entire country. To be fair, two contests that were remarkably bad are heavily swaying those numbers in the wrong direction for K-State. Which games? It was when they played Tulane and TCU. What do they have in common? Those are the two losses for Kansas State. That statistic has mattered quite a bit this season. Keep an eye on it on Saturday.

3. SPECIAL TEAMS: Oklahoma State isn’t just the best third down defense in the Big 12. They have the best special teams numbers as well. And if they win that battle in Manhattan, that will make it very tough on K-State, especially if they are struggling on third down as an offense again and not getting off the field on defense.

4. IMPORTANCE: If Oklahoma State were to win, they’d hold a lot of important tie-breakers on teams that it will matter against, including Kansas State. Because of those tie-breakers, they’d essentially have a two-game lead on second place in the Big 12. Guess what? Second place matters. It gets you to Arlington. Splitting the next two at home, at the very least, is crucial for K-State. But the more beneficial victory for the Wildcats would be against the Cowboys.

WHAT THE WILDCATS NEED TO LEARN

1. TRACK RECORD: Chris Klieman has never defeated the next three teams on the schedule. He remains winless versus Oklahoma State, Texas and Baylor. He was close against the Cowboys in 2020. That was also with Will Howard at quarterback and a late turnover by the Wildcats was the kiss of death. Bucking that trend could remove any doubt about it being a systemic issue and concern for Kansas State, especially with contests with the Longhorns and Bears following it.

2. SURVIVAL ON DEFENSE: What do I mean by survival. Just clawing out a win by any means necessary with the guys that are available to try and give Daniel Green another week. He’s likely questionable at best for the Texas game, but another week could buy them some time if they can find out a way to secure one victory without him. Surviving the first half is also relevant. Remember, Khalid Duke can’t play until the second half. It will be an abbreviated and interesting collection of players lining up at linebacker versus Oklahoma State. In fact, we could see some guys switching positions on a temporary basis just to get through this weekend.

3. SOLUTION AT KICKER: For the first time, Klieman has raised some doubt about Chris Tennant and the job he’s doing as the K-State kicker. At his weekly press conference on Tuesday, the Kansas State head coach mentioned Ty Zentner and Leyton Simmering has two players that will receive chances at practice during the week.

SATURDAY STARS

PHILLIP BROOKS: K-State receiver Malik Knowles has had two weeks of a lot of production. He will begin to attract more and more attention. And whether it is for a hobbled Will Howard or a hobbled Adrian Martinez, Phillip Brooks can be a strong security blanket for either quarterback as a reliable underneath target in the passing game. I considered Vaughn in the backfield due to Oklahoma State not being strong against the running game, but I worry about his success without a scary quarterback run game as an alternative option.

AUSTIN MOORE: Duke will be on the sideline for the first half. Green is likely unavailable. Nick Allen struggled a week ago and could be the target of the Cowboy schemes on offense. Beau Palmer also is expected to be out this week. There will be players asked to do much more this week. One obvious one is Austin Moore. As defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman noted on Thursday, he will likely have to go the distance versus Oklahoma State. Could he also see reps at a different linebacker spot? It’s something I’m monitoring.

PUNT BLOCK: The Wildcats need a splash on special teams, but the Cowboys are too good for it to come in the return game, in my opinion. Kansas State was close to a punt block against TCU. They’ve come close a couple of other times. If they are going to flip the game with a non-offensive play, I could see it coming in the form of a blocked punt.

PREDICTION

In an effort to remain consistent across all of the platforms that I speak and write for, I’ll stick with my original prediction. It was my belief that K-State just won’t find enough offense to come out on top against Oklahoma State.

And I like the Cowboys’ formula too much. They have a veteran quarterback in Spencer Sanders that isn’t making mistakes and has the knack for the clutch play, they are great at getting off the field on defense and rely on a consistently strong special teams unit.

Those are things that travel and allow teams to find critical wins on the road. On top of that, Mike Gundy has had a ton of success in the Big 12 and they’ve never lost to a Kansas State team coached by Chris Klieman and the Wildcats are unsettled at quarterback.

With that being said, I like K-State a bit more every time I discuss or speak about Saturday’s game. Oklahoma State didn’t necessarily deserve to win last week’s game if Steve Sarkisian had just stuck with the running game and they lost a lead in Fort Worth similar to Kansas State.

Aside from being stellar on third down, their defense has taken a step back in meaningful ways in just about every other department. They could be without players at meaningful spots and the K-State defense has been more opportunistic at home.

I’ll stick to my guns. Oklahoma State prevails by a score of 27-24.