LSU Opponent Preview 2023: Alabama

The Alabama vs. LSU game in 2022 will go down in history in Baton Rouge. It’s the win that truly kick-started the Brian Kelly era at LSU and also a win that capsized Alabama’s championship hopes. Brian Kelly and Nick Saban have been two of the best in the sport for over a decade now and now the two lead elite programs set to once again meet this season with championship aspirations on the line.

We continue our deep-dive into LSU’s 2023 schedule today with Alabama. Let’s get into it.

Prior teams: Florida State, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Auburn, Army

Head coach: Nick Saban (17th season)

Offensive coordinator: Tommy Rees (1st season)

Defensive coordinator: Kevin Steele (1st season)

Last year

Saban did his best to campaign for his Alabama team to make the College Football Playoffs, but he didn’t have much of a leg to stand on as losses to Tennessee and LSU resulted in the Tide not even winning the SEC West. Pair that with underwhelming wins over Texas, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss, and you have a really inconsistent season for a team that had some glaring flaws on both sides. Still, Alabama ended the year ranked No. 5 in both the AP Poll and the CFP Rankings.

Offense

Despite having future No.1 pick Bryce Young at quarterback, the offense was unable to really find that championship-level of consistency at times, ending the year 20th in offensive EPA per play. It was one of the worst receiving corps Nick Saban had in his time at Alabama and as a result the offense only had Young and running back Jahmyr Gibbs to depend on. Gibbs led the team in rushing and receptions, while Young had another great season, but his numbers were human with a 64.5 completion percentage, 32 touchdowns, and five interceptions.

It was a good offense, still ranking in the top ten in yards per play, but it lacked the dynamic receivers that Alabama usually has.

Defense

Similar to the offense, there were a few transfers that didn’t work out for Alabama’s defense, and the overall dynamism lacked in areas. Tennessee dropped 52 on the Tide, LSU scored 32, Auburn 27, Texas A&M 20, Arkansas 26. Still, the Tide allowed the fourth fewest yards per play of any team in the country.

Henry To’oTo’o, Brian Branch, Jordan Battle, Will Anderson, Kool-Aid McKinstry, Dallas Turner, and Byron Young all had strong seasons. Anderson’s stats dropped significantly from his heisman-caliber 2021 season, recording only 17 tackles for loss and 10 sacks in 2022.

The Tide’s run defense EPA ranked 39th, as the defensive line was not able to stop the run as well as it rushed the passer. The cornerback play was fine, but highly-touted transfer Eli Ricks was unable to contribute as Bama turned to some younger players. The talent will never be a question for Alabama on defense, but it’s getting back to that championship-level that will be challenging.

Offseason moves

Notable departures

Drafted: QB Bryce Young, DE Will Anderson, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, S Brian Branch, OT Tyler Steen, DT Byron Young, S Jordan Battle, TE Cameron Latu, LB Henry To’oT’oo, S Demarcco Hellams.

Transferred: TE Elijah Brown, WR Tyler Harrell, S Jaylen Key, CB Tre’quon Fegans, LB Demouy Kennedy, OT Damieon George, WR Christian Leary, RB Trey Sanders, OT Amari Knight, OT Tommy Brockermeyer, WR Aaron Anderson, CB Khyree Jackson, WR Jojo Earle, WR Traeshon Holden.

Alabama had 20 players transfer out and 17 of them are going to P5 programs. The Tide have stacked together enough top three recruiting classes for this number to potentially be irrelevant, but depth and overall experience certainly takes a shot with these departures. Most of those names likely would not have started, but guys like Earle, Leary, and Holden would have been nice rotation pieces for the offense at receiver. 

The draft also completely guts Alabama’s top talent, putting them in an interesting spot for 2023.

Big-time additions

2023 class: S Caleb Downs, DE Keon Keeley, DE Yhonzae Pierre, OT Kayden Proctor, CB Desmond Ricks, DL James Smith, LB Que Russaw, RB Justice Haynes, WR Jalen Hale.

Transferred: S Jaylen Key, CB Trey Amos, QB Tyler Buchner, LB Trezmen Marshall, TE CJ Dippre.

It’s an incredible recruiting class, there’s no way around it. The Tide had seven five-stars, 19 four-stars, and an average rating of 94.11, nearly a full point higher than Georgia who was second. That’s one way to bounce back from missing the playoff and losing a large piece of your core to the NFL.

The expectation for this group will likely be to step in and immediately contribute either as starters or in the rotation. There’s no reason guys like Keeley, Downs, Haynes, and others can’t help Alabama this year.

Going into 2023

Top returners: OL JC Latham, DT Jaheim Oatis, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, RB Jase McClellan, OLB Dallas Turner.

There’s still plenty of talent on this team to potentially win the SEC West in 2023, but a lot of that hinges on the quarterback position. Jalen Milroe. Ty Simpson, and transfer Tyler Buchner are all competing for the job right now, but it’s hard to say that any of them can be a top five quarterback in the SEC. With that limitation on the offense, and continued questions at receiver, what can new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees get out of this offense?

On defense, the star-power is in full force, with the talent to really be elite. New defensive coordinator Kevin Steele will be reliant on McKinstry, Turner, and Oatis to win their one-on-ones and open up the rest of the defense which comprises of some transfers and plenty of high-potential youth.

Expectations

The expectations from Alabama fans and media will be to return to the playoffs in 2023, but it’s going to be an uphill task. A non-conference home game against Texas will be prime time television and beyond that, the Tide have the entire SEC West, as well as Tennessee and Kentucky from the east.

The good news for the Tide is that the three toughest games this year are all at home with Texas, LSU, and Tennessee. Ole Miss and Arkansas are also home games, making it five of their six toughest games are likely in Tuscaloosa.

Early look at LSU vs. Alabama

Last year’s thriller in Death Valley is what LSU and Alabama games should be. Two of the best programs in the country going toe-to-toe with heavy implications on who runs the SEC West. this year.

ESPN has Alabama and LSU as the No. 6 and No. 7 teams in the country entering the year. Alabama has a ton of turnover, but young talent to supplement those losses, while LSU knows what it has and added another high-level transfer class to fill their needs. The Tigers are set to be more experienced and have better quarterback play, but the game is in Tuscaloosa, giving Alabama some added fuel.

LSU’s advantage at quarterback is stark and to alot of people, that’t the difference in a close game like this. Both teams have NFL talent on defense with Harold Perkins and Maason Smith vs. McKinstry and Turner, but the secondary will be the key in this game for both teams. Entering the year, that’s the uncertainty both ways and we’ll see how those units shape up in 2023.