Big Ten basketball preview, part I: Breaking down all conference teams in depth

Big Ten basketball media day is today, and Michigan assistant Saddi Washington is filling in for Juwan Howard. The head coach is still recovering from heart surgery but “doing fantastic,” Washington reported, great news to hear. 

Our Jeff Schiller (MHoops1) breaks down the Big Ten teams in depth and will provide a projected order of finish later this week. Here are the first four teams (in no order), starting with a Michigan rival. 

Ohio State

The Buckeyes finished 13th out of 14 teams in Big Ten basketball regular season play last season. Chris Holtmann’s team loses five of the six guys who played the most minutes last season. Still, Ohio State is a trendy pick to substantially improve and potentially be a tournament team. The reasoning goes like this:

 a) senior center Zed Key has been an efficient and productive player in limited minutes and will break out with increased opportunity; (b) sophomore point guard Bruce Thornton took a major leap in his last nine games (16.6 points per game), and will continue that progression this season; (c) Minnesota stretch 4 transfer Jamison Battle will revert to his All Big Ten Honorable Mention form of 2021-22 after suffering through a difficult season last year; and (d) a top recruiting class with three top 60 players, combined with some promising holdovers, can fill in the gaps.

Could this be sound reasoning? Maybe, but several key questions need to be answered. At the outset, while Thornton in particular looks promising, there is no guarantee any of the “big three” will blossom into E.J. Liddell/Duane Washington-like stardom, and that especially holds true for the upperclassmen. Key has never played even 50% of his team’s available minutes. The Thornton hoopla is based in large part on a string of games after the season was effectively over. Battle was not at all efficient last year. And the newcomers and holdovers, while being highly touted, have never been a significant part of a productive college team. Nor was any a top 25, can’t miss high school prospect.

In addition, there remains much uncertainty on the defensive end of the floor. Ohio State has been a bad defensive team for the last three seasons (106^th last year, 111^ththe year before, 82^nd in 2020-21). None of the “big three” is especially athletic, and none has ever been a part of a productive college basketball defensive unit. 

To be fair, Ohio State does have a number of athletes among holdover Roddy Gayle Jr. and Felix Okpara, incoming freshmen Devin Royal and Taison Chatman, and transfers Dale Bonner (Baylor) and Evan Mahaffey (Penn State), but whether they can cover for three key players who have struggled defensively and do not have a high defensive ceiling is questionable.

Can these questions be answered? Certainly, the offensive ones can if only Key, Thornton, and Battle play to hoped-for levels. Alternatively, if some, but not all, do, freshmen and Gayle, who shot it well last year in limited minutes, could take up the slack. Defensively … well, that’s a harder sell.

Ohio State has the weakest Big Ten schedule in the league (single plays against Purdue, MSU and Illinois, two of which are at home), and a really soft start to the conference schedule (home against Minnesota, at Penn State, home against Rutgers), so the Buckeyes may be able to overcome even some of the questions and still meet their own hopes and expectations. They also have pretty good depth and may thus be more immune to injury or underperformance than some others. 

However, given defensive questions and the need to have guys take a major step forward, predicting OSU’s season is extremely uncertain. Last year, OSU started strong and then lost an astonishing 14 out of 15, so it’s possible that even early season performances will not clarify the ultimate result.  OSU could be a tournament team, or it could struggle as it did last season.

Penn State

This is the hardest Big Ten preview to write, because everything is new. Penn State has a new coach (Mike Rhoades from VCU), essentially all new players, and likely a new style (not the “booty ball” and hoist 3s style favored by Jalen Pickett and his contemporaries).

The players themselves are mostly a mystery. Aside from point guard Ace Baldwin, who followed Rhoades from VCU, center Qudus Wahab who had a brief one-year stint at Maryland in between tours at Georgetown, and forward Puff Johnson, who was a back-of-the-rotation player at North Carolina, the new players are a combination of guys with uncertain resumes. There’s just a shooter” Zach Hicks from Temple (he took over 75% of his shots from 3 and made those at a better clip than he made his 2-point shots), nomad RayQuawndis Mitchell (this is his fourth school—most recently he was at UMKC), who also shoots a ton of 3s (249 last year alone!), but is a 31.3% distance shooter for his career. 

Then there’s former top 100 prospect D’Marco Dunn, who barely played during his two seasons at UNC, etc. It is literally impossible to have any real clue Penn State will play this season. Given the number of uncertainties and questions though, and the paucity of potential solutions, the guess is that they won’t play as a high level.

That said, the best-case scenario for Penn State appears to be that Baldwin, who is a very good player, can do what Jahmir Young did last season after up-transferring to Maryland, and that the rest of the roster can fill holes around him. Even that may not be enough, as Young walked in alongside established players Donta Scott and Hakim Hart and promising soph Julian Reese, whereas Baldwin … does not. Rhoades is a good coach, and he may in time do for Penn State what Micah Shrewsbury did last season, but this year is likely to be a long season in Happy Valley.

Purdue

In contrast to Penn State, this is the easiest Big Ten preview to write. Purdue has the same coach, essentially the same players, the same star, the same style, and likely the same success. The Boilers have the most dominant player in the country in Zach Edey. They won the Big Ten regular season and tournament championships last season and were a number 1 seed before the ignominious collapse against Fairleigh Dickinson. At the same time, the Boilers also have the same questions that manifested themselves late last season, including in the Fairleigh Dickinson game.

Simply put, Purdue struggled late against full court pressure and because of erratic outside shooting. Purdue turned it over a lot in late season losses to Indiana, Northwestern, and Fairleigh Dickinson, and almost blew huge leads against Illinois and Penn State because of an inability to handle late pressure. Point guard Braden Smith played admirably as a true freshman, but he’s not equipped to be a one-man ballhandling machine, and he had no help. 

Perhaps SIU transfer Lance Jones will help, though that will make the Boilers much smaller in the backcourt if he plays alongside Smith, and he was extremely inefficient last year (he took a whopping 243 3s on a team that also had now-Illinois forward Marcus Damask and made only 65 (26.7%). Either way, Jones will at least provide needed depth.

The other issue is shooting. Purdue was 278^th nationally in 3-point shooting, including a horrific 4-25 on absolutely wide-open shots in the Fairleigh Dickinson loss. Fletcher Loyer, who was a sniper through January (36.2% to that point), fell off a cliff in February and March, going 13-24 (24.1%). Smith shot it even better early on (42,4% through the end of January) and then fell to 31.0% thereafter. 

Maybe they wore down and hit the proverbial “freshman wall.” Maybe Jones and uber-athletic freshman Myles Colvin will cut down the respective workloads of Loyer and Smith and prevent the late season struggles. Perhaps power forward Mason Gillis, who has shot almost 38% for his career on relatively low volume, can increase volume without sacrificing accuracy. One way or the other though, Fairleigh Dickinson showed Purdue’s vulnerability if a team can collapse on Edey and force the Boilers to shoot their way to victory.

The truth is that Purdue will be very, very good even if they don’t solve their problems. Purdue has Edey, and most of the time, even with the issues, that’s plenty. Purdue was 3^rd nationally in offensive rebounding, which means misses are going to come back to the Boilers almost 40% of the time. Purdue was number 1 in the nation in avoiding opponents’ free throws because Edey alters everything put up neat the basket.

 For all the justifiable criticism of Purdue’s post-season failures, Matt Painter is going to get another opportunity to win a Big Ten championship and be a favorite to advance deep into March.

Northwestern

Chris Collins returns three starters and his sixth man from last year’s surprising team that tied for second place in regular season conference place and reached the round of 32 in the NCAA tournament. Included among the returnees is point guard Boo Buie, who garnered All Big Ten first team accolades from the media last season and is a preseason All American on many lists this year. The Wildcats also added transfer guard Ryan Langborg (Princeton), a 36% career 3-point shooter on over four hundred attempts, and others.

 So, Northwestern should be even better this year, right? Very possible, but there are potential pitfalls. The one key missing component from last year’s team is Chase Audige, last year’s Big Ten defensive player of the year. How he can/will be replaced on a team that made its living on the defensive end (18^th nationally) is the key question confronting Northwestern this year. 

To be clear, Audige was an inefficient bricklayer who nonetheless took a lot of shots on the offensive end of the floor. However, he was an absolutely brilliant defensive player, very good on ball and sensational off it, and that ability caused a ripple effect which help every other Northwestern player on the defensive end. As one example, center Matthew Nicholson is an excellent shot blocker, rim protector and defensive rebounder who played exceptionally well in drop coverage against ball screens. He is not, however, particularly mobile, or switchable. Audige’s ability to blow up actions and force opponents into uncomfortable situations funneled teams into Nicholson’s wheelhouse, and his ability to chase and contest minimized Nicholson’s weaknesses—this was similar to how Franz Wagner covered up for Hunter Dickinson and Austin Davis on the ’20-’21 Michigan team. Will Northwestern be more exposed without Audige? That’s something to watch as the season progresses.

In addition, Audige’s absence creates even more offensive pressure to the load that will be carried by Buie. Yes, Audige was an inefficient chucker; at the same time, he was Northwestern’s secondary creator (almost 100 assists), Buie had a very good year with a high but manageable usage rate—now his usage rate could grow exponentially. Can he remain as efficient with even more weight on his shoulders? He’s going to have to—a healthy and extremely productive Buie is essential to Northwestern’s season.

Are there potential solutions? Likely so on offense, less likely on defense. Langborg will provide improved shooting and might morph into a secondary playmaker in a system other than the Princeton offense. Ty Barry, a 3-point specialist who shot it very badly last year (29.1%), might return to form. Brooks Barnhizer, a high motor glue guy, and Liberty transfer Blake Preston, a strictly inside player, may improve on the play of departing starter Robbie Beran who had an extremely disappointing senior year. Those are all offensive improvements though, and a drop-off on defense will be hard to avoid.

The key to Northwestern’s season is to offset Audige’s loss on the defensive end by upping his performance on offense. That’s certainly feasible if the Cats shoot it better and Buie has another great year, but like many teams in the conference, the health and production of one guy might be the difference between a successful season and a disappointing one,(or even a disastrous one if Buie were to miss significant time).