Big Ten basketball preview, Part II: Is Michigan ready for conference play?

Michigan and other Big Ten teams are ready to get into the thick of conference play, and every team has plenty of question marks. Here’s part II of the preseason preview from our MHoops1, who also goes by mild-mannered attorney Jeff Schiller.

RELATED: Big Ten basketball preview by team — Can Michigan contend? Part I

MICHIGAN: Before the season, the two biggest unknowns for Michigan appeared to be whether Kobe Bufkin could adequately replace Eli Brooks at the 2, and whether the overall defense would improve from last year. The answers are a resounding yes on number 1, and a resounding no on number 2 … at least to date.

While there are certainly hopes that the defense will improve, if for no other reason that teams that start two freshmen normally see defensive improvement from those players just through reps, coaching and understanding (as just one example, Caleb Houstan got considerably better on defense as the year progressed, though it wasn’t a high bar he was stepping over), another unknown has cropped up. That’s who, if anyone, can provide acceptable back-up minutes at the wing positions. This is an unknown made more critical by the injury to point guard Jaelin Llewellyn, and the resultant need for Bukin to play 10 minutes or so per game at point guard, and thus apportion some of Llewellyn’s minutes to a 2/3 reserve.

Michigan needs a back-up 2 or 3, whether Joey Baker, Isaiah Barnes or Youssef Khayat, to step up and become a consistent contributor. Baker took a step against UNC. Whether it’s him or others though, someone has to emerge.

NORTHWESTERN: The Wildcats were number 7 nationally in kenpom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings recently, and number 162 in adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. We’re not buying the first one at all; the second … maybe that’s too low, but Northwestern is not a good offensive team, nor do the ‘Cats have the tools to be so.

To be fair, Northwestern has experience and athleticism on the perimeter and can cause some real problems on the defensive end. However, the Wildcats don’t have a rim protector, nor do they have anyone in the major playing rotation in the 6-6 to 6-7 range, which makes them susceptible to a lot of teams in the Big Ten.

The Cats are better than expected — the win at MSU was wholly unexpected, and playing Auburn to the wire in a one point game (and holding them to 43 points to boot) was very impressive. Still, they’re at least somewhat over-ranked at number 43 on kenpom at this point. If they continue to play well, it’s a tribute to what veteran guards who have played a ton together can accomplish in the current college basketball environment.

OHIO STATE: Chris Holtman is doing a good job at OSU this year. He lost two NBA players, has inserted freshmen who were highly touted, albeit not McDonald’s all-American types, added some transfers who are good on one end of the court and less so on the other, shaken, stirred, and come out with a pretty good team. It’s a very good one on the offensive end.

There’s likely some regression coming though. OSU is not good defensively, and even its middling rank is being propped up by opponents shooting under 27 percent for the season thus far from 3. That number is not generally sustainable against quality opponents, and almost certainly not by a team that  doesn’t have much rim protection or a switchable 5 who can let the perimeter guys avoid helping too much.

Still, OSU can score via a lot of guys and in a lot of different ways, from post-ups by Zed Key to 3-point shooting from multiple guys to drives from the wing players. That’s going to win a fair number of games, more so if future refs allow a Buckeye to go out of bounds and come back in without re-establishing two feet before sinking a game winning, buzzer beating, 3. 🙂 (see: Rutgers game)

PENN STATE: I love what Micah Shrewsbury is doing with the talent he has available in Happy Valley.  He’s playing a lineup with 4 guards and a small forward (Seth Lundy)  at the 5, loading great 3 point shooters around a jumbo, Darius Morris like PG (Jalen Pickett) who likes to back opponents down and finish in the mid-range, and trading 3s for 2s.

PSU is ranked in the top 15 in the nation in both percentage of 3s taken per shot atttempt and percentage of 3s made overall, which is a lethal combination. The Lions have a relatively small margin of error. If they aren’t shooting well (as they didn’t in a loss to MSU), they don’t really have a fallback option, and there are going to be opponents, especially in the Big Ten, strong enough on the interior to make 2 after 2 against the small ball lineup and render even good but not great 3 point shooting not enough.

However, PSU to beat some very good teams, as they proved at Illinois. The fact that PSU starts and predominantly plays five seniors, four of whom are fifth year seniors, doesn’t hurt either.

PURDUE: Barring an injury or big time aggression, Zach Edey may have the national player of the year award sewed up in mid-December. He’s been so good that Matt Painter has been able to surround him with two freshman guards and a bunch of interchangeable forwards, all of whom have played pretty well, but not absurdly well, and still been dominant.

It will be interesting to see how Purdue fares against teams with 5s who can play on the perimeter and bring Edey out, or who can play some semblance of man up defense on Edey without bringing help; it will also be interesting to see how the Boilers react when someone hits a reasonable percentage of 3s against them. I look forward in particular to Purdue games against teams Penn State, which will say let Edey score 50 and we’ll try to draw him away from the basket with Lundy and trade 3s for 2s.

In any game though where Edey can dominate without his weaknesses being exposed, Purdue will be a very, very tough out.

RUTGERS: Teams with long time coaches usually develop identities. None have a clearer identity than Rutgers under Steve Pikiell. No matter who dons the uniform, Rutgers will play extremely ugly offense, aside from an ability to get offensive rebounds, and great defense.

This year’s team is true to form. The offense may be even uglier than in the past, now that Ron Harper, Jr. and Geo Baker are finally gone. The defense, led by Caleb McConnell and Cliff Omoruyi, may be even better. And sometimes that’s still not enough, as in a 45-43 home loss to Seton Hall. Rutgers gonna’ Rutgers.

WISCONSIN: Despite having a good friend who is a double Wisconsin grad (undergrad and law school), I am NOT a fan of Wisconsin’s basketball program from the athletic department to the staff to the players to the fan base. There’s a St. Louis Cardinals “greatest fans in baseball,” we know how to play the game the “right way” and you don’t arrogance there, combined with disguised, seldom called, but nonetheless illegal lower body physicality, and some outright dirty play (hello Brad Davison).

However, Greg Gard can coach, and like his mentor, Bo Ryan (and John Beilein for that matter), can spot underappreciated talent, develop it, and fit it into a never changing system. Connor Essegian, the number 226 ranked player in the class of ’22, is shooting over 46 percent from 3 on heavy volume. Stephen Crowl, the number 235 player in the class of ’20, who played 39 minutes as a freshman, is now a solid Big Ten 5.

Of course, that approach has not been as successful in the post-season, where Wisconsin hasn’t made the second week since 2017. We’ll see if the close games success or the post-season struggles change in the new year — the guess is that neither will.