Skip to main content
Michigan

ESPN's FPI updates U-M's College Football Playoff odds

Anthony Broomeby: Anthony Broome11/07/22anthonytbroome
On3 image
(Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)

Michigan football took its win streak into November, moving to 9-0 on the season with a blowout win at Rutgers over the weekend. The Wolverines are on a warpath with the Ohio State Buckeyes, who are also undefeated. With Nebraska and Illinois standing in the way still, Michigan has a few steps remaining to achieve its goals.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing with a 11.5-0.9 record on the season. The Wolverines rank 4th among teams in the FPI rankings behind Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia. Michigan is now more likely to make the playoff than it is not, coming in at 62.5%. Georgia (90.8%), Ohio State (86.3%) and Tennessee (64%) are the only teams ahead of Michigan. Next up is Clemson at 31%, followed by Alabama (16.2%), TCU (15.5%) and Oregon (14.6%).

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

Other FPI percentages on Michigan’s resume include:

Win Out: 23.4%

Six Wins or More: 100%

Win Big Ten East: 31.5%

Win Big Ten: 27%

College Football Playoff: 62.5%

Make National Title Game: 29.6%

Win National Title: 13.5%

Each week, we will update Michigan’s resume and also take a look ahead to the rest of the 2022 schedule. Here is how it breaks down ahead of Week 10 and a road trip to take on Rutgers

Michigan football’s FPI outlook

Sept. 3 vs. Colorado State: 51-7 W (1-0)

Sept. 10 vs. Hawaii: 56-10 W (2-0)

Sept. 17 vs. UConn: 59-0 W (3-0)

Sept. 24 vs. Maryland: 34-27 W (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Oct. 1 at Iowa: 27-14 W (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Oct. 8 at Indiana: 31-10 W (6-0, 3-0 B1G)

Oct. 15 vs. Penn State: 41-17 W (7-0, 4-0 B1G)

Oct. 29 vs. Michigan State: 29-7 W (8-0, 5-0 B1G)

Nov. 5 at Rutgers: 52-17 W (9-0, 6-0 B1G)

Nov. 12 vs. Nebraska: 97.1% chance of victory

Nov. 19 vs. Illinois: 89.4% chance of victory

Nov. 26 at Ohio State: 31% chance of victory

Bowl projections and what’s next

Both ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have Michigan heading to the College Football Playoff for the first time this season. Bonagura sees the possibility of a CFP semifinal vs. Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl, while Schlabach projects a rematch with Georgia at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta. Bonagura believes the Georgia/Michigan rematch will come in the national title game.

Michigan has Nebraska next and will do battle Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, its first 3:30 game since the 2018 season in Ann Arbor.

You may also like