Keys to the game: Michigan football at Nebraska

The Big Ten season is upon Michigan with a trip to Lincoln, Nebraska on tap. While in the past we’d have said, “now it’s for real,” all has changed given the new playoff structure and cheapening of the regular season (lawn … off!). Yes, the Big Ten championship still means something, and you can still back your way into a playoff spot with a few losses because of it, but it’s not quite the same. 

RELATED: Staff Predictions: Michigan football at Nebraska
RELATED: Michigan football News and Views: On the U-M offensive line at Nebraska, more

What is and has remained the same — Nebraska’s struggle for relevance over the last several decades. The once proud (and still proud, to the fans’ credit) program hasn’t won a game over a ranked opponent since 2016 — think about that — and struggled to a 20-17 win over a Cincinnati team that’s been the only squad it’s played with a pulse this year. In fact, many would argue they were fortunate in that one, too. 

But venue matters, and ‘Huskers fans are clinging to the “Matt Rhule year three” hypothesis in hoping this is the season they finally get over the hump. 

Our take — there are pieces here, and certainly enough to beat Michigan if the Wolverines don’t bring their ‘A’ game, but this is still an average football team. A very friendly schedule will get them more wins this year, or at least had better, but they can ramp up the excitement with a victory over U-M. 

Much of that responsibility will fall on quarterback Dylan Raiola, and Cornhuskers coach Rhule understands the challenge having seen the Michigan defense on film. 

“Wink’s elite,” he said of Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. “He’s pressure. He’s one of my favorite coaches. When I was in the NFL, I had a lot of respect for him. He’s a tough guy. These guys are going to play unbelievably hard.

“What I just said: How do you stop a passing game? You can get pressure on the quarterback. He can do that multiple ways. Part of the pressure is also painting pictures for the quarterback and showing him different things. A lot of quarterbacks can come out and say, ‘Oh, it’s man. Here’s my man beater. Oh, it’s Cover Two. I should throw the ball here.’ It’s when the picture changes that’s hard for a lot of guys.”

We’ll see how hard it is for Nebraska to navigate Saturday. Here are our keys to a Michigan win in Lincoln.

Michigan Key No. 1 — Make Dylan Raiola uncomfortable

Let’s be clear here — the Nebraska quarterback is no John Mateer (he’s no Patrick Mahomes, for that matter, even if he wants to be). He’s not going to kill you with his feet, though he can find his way out of the pocket to hurt you if you don’t contain, which was an issue for the Wolverines at Oklahoma. 

But no, he’s not going to beat you with his legs. The key is to keep him in the pocket, tighten up the zones that have been inconsistent in the first three weeks, and get more pressure on the Cornhuskers’ signal caller with the front four. If that means more of Michigan linebacker Jaishawn Barham on the edge, so be it — veterans Derrick Moore and TJ Guy have been quiet in the first few weeks, and they need to step up.

Giving Raiola time to throw to his solid group of receivers would make things tough. They can’t let him get into a rhythm. 

Key No. 2 — Don’t hold back on offense, but have a ‘Plan B’

Every defensive coordinator who saw the Michigan – Oklahoma game will think they have the blueprint to slowing the Wolverines. Most, though, won’t have the personnel, and let’s be clear — this Nebraska defense doesn’t look anywhere near the one the Sooners unleashed on the Wolverines. The Wolverines should be able to run on this team, but they need to do it out of the formations that worked against New Mexico and CMU, with the same game plan … at least to start. 

What’s that entail? Unleashing freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, for one. That doesn’t necessarily mean drop him back to pass every down, of course, but allow him to improvise, spread the defense out more than they did at Oklahoma, and let him do his thing. He might make some mistakes, but he’s too good to handcuff. 

If Nebraska takes chances by bringing added pressure with success, then as our analyst Doug Skene noted when we asked him about the halftime adjustments in the 1993 Michigan Rose Bowl win over Washington, there are ways to use an aggressive defense against itself. In that game it was the traps that unleashed running back Tyrone Wheatley for some huge running plays once Washington defenders essentially ran them out of plays. 

We expect the Cornhuskers’ coaches won’t fear the Michigan receivers and take their chances with their solid secondary, bringing more defenders in to cope with Underwood and the run game, devise more pressures. Michigan O.C. Chip Linsdey needs more than the quick screens and passes to the flats to counter, and he needs his receivers to do their jobs, too. 

We’d be surprised, though, if the Wolverines didn’t have success on the ground with both the backs and Underwood. 

Michigan Key No. 3 — No special teams blunders, win the turnover battle

We try to avoid cliches here, but when it comes to big road games, these are almost always two big factors. Unfortunately, the Michigan special teams have been struggling, even normally reliable kicker Dominic Zvada. Nebraska’s have improved and the Cornhuskers have a very good punter, while the Wolverines have looked like Keystone Cops in the return game. 

As for ball protection — this will be a test for Underwood. Avoiding the big mistake in a big game is going to be huge. If there’s any freshman QB we’d want in this situation, it’s him.

Michigan vs. Nebraska — The Breakdown 

This is huge test No. 2, and though the Wolverines failed the first one miserably, lessons were supposedly learned. Plus, this is not Oklahoma, folks, as much as Cornhuskers fans would like to believe it. Michigan is the more talented team, and on a neutral field, we’d pick the Wolverines eight out of 10. 

“Think about Nebraska,” interim coach Poggi said. When you think about Nebraska, these are the things that this team has — they are big and physical on the offensive line. They have really good body-up receivers. 

“Defensively, there’s a lot of movement. Their defensive line, as stout as can be. They take great pride in their defense there. The whole blackshirt movement there. They’re really good. Look at what they’ve done … I don’t care who you play. The results are the results … [Rhule] got a lot of good players.”

We’ll have to disagree about the stout D-line and the level of competition. It matters. Heck, Rich Rodriguez beat a Houston Christian type team in Delaware State, 63-3, when he was at Michigan. 

Likewise, though, Michigan’s win over Central Michigan didn’t prove much, either. It’s all about doing it when it matters and in tough environments, something this group has done only once so far in the last two seasons, against a team it owns mentally. 

Expect a fourth quarter game that could go either way.