Preview and prediction: Michigan vs. Villanova in the NCAA Tournament

No. 11 seed Michigan basketball is set to take on No. 2 seed Villanova in the South Regional semifinal Thursday night in San Antonio.

The Maize and Blue defeated No. 6 seed Colorado State and No. 3 seed Tennessee to make their fifth straight Sweet 16, while Villanova took down No. 15 seed Delaware and No. 7 seed Ohio State en route to their second consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend.

Below is everything you need to know

RELATED

• Five takes on Michigan’s Sweet 16 matchup with Villanova

• Breaking down the South Regional, Michigan’s path to another Final Four

• Breaking down Michigan vs. Villanova Sweet 16 matchup with a Wildcats insider

Game Information: Michigan vs. Villanova

Date: Thursday, March 24

Time: 7:29 p.m. ET

Venue: AT&T Center (San Antonio, Texas)

Channel: TBS

On The Call: Brian Anderson (play-by-play), Jim Jackson (color) and Allie LaForce (sideline)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Villanova -5, over.under 135

Kenpom Prediction: Villanova 71, Michigan 66

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — Missed the Colorado State game (concussion protocol) and played just 12 minutes against Tennessee (illness) but is expected to start tonight … The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 10.4 points, 4.6 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game, while shooting 46.2 percent from the field and 33.8 percent from long range.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain generates 12.8 points, 3.7 rebounds and three assists per outing, while shooting 44.7 percent overall and 38.7 percent from three … Scored 23 points in the win over Tennessee … This will be the 16th NCAA Tournament game he’ll have been a part of.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 10.2 points, four rebounds and 1.4 assists per clash, while shooting 38.5 percent from the field and 36 percent from long range … Michigan is 10-1 when he scores 13 or more points.

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — The Paris native is averaging 9.1 points and six rebounds per tilt … Makes 54.5 percent of his overall shot attempts and is 51-of-82 from the free throw line (62.2 percent).

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The second-team All-Big Ten standout is leading the team with 18.7 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game … Shooting 57.1 percent from the field and has made 21 of his 63 three-point attempts (33.3 percent).

Key Bench Contributors

• #10 – Freshman guard Frankie Collins (6-1, 185) — Posts 2.9 points, 1.7 rebounds and 1.4 assists per outing and shoots 43 percent from the field … Is 3-of-18 from long range … Made his first career start against Colorado State and posted 14 points, six rebounds and two assists, before playing the majority of the game against Tennessee (30 minutes).

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 14.6 minutes per contest at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ positions, while averaging 4.7 points and 2.3 rebounds, and shooting 46.2 percent from the field and 38.8 percent from long range … Shooting 52.9 percent (18-of-34) from three-point range in wins and 6.7 percent in losses (1-of-15) … Scored nine points in the victory over Tennessee.

• #2 – Freshman guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 175) — Registers three points and 1.1 rebounds per game at the ‘2’ and ‘3’ positions, and shoots 38 percent overall and just 22.2 percent from three-point range.

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — The East Lansing native is notching 3.3 points and two boards per outing, while shooting 38 percent from the field and 10-of-32 from three-point range (31.3 percent) … Grades out in the 94th percentile nationally in overall defense, per Synergy.

Villanova Projected Starters

• #2 – Fifth-year senior guard Collin Gillespie (6-3, 195) — The two-time Big East Player of the Year averages 16 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game … Shoots 41.6 percent from beyond the arc (that number was 42.9 percent during Big East play) and 90.2 percent from the free throw line .. His 2.97 made threes per game rank 27th in the country … Excellent as a pick-and-roll handler, generating 1.051 points per play (90th percentile nationally) and spot-up shooter (1.195 PPP, 93rd percentile) and even posts up when he has the chance against a smaller defender, often passing it out to an open teammate (1.243 PPP, 96th percentile) … Scored in double figures 32 times and notched four or more assists in 19 outings this season.

• #5 – Junior guard Justin Moore (6-4, 210) — Posts 15 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.3 assists per contest, while connecting on 40.2 percent of his shots from the floor and 35.2 percent of his looks from deep .. Grades out as an ‘excellent’ defender in the 85th percentile nationally … Has the highest offensive usage rate on the team and can do a lot with or without the ball — ball screens, spot ups, post-ups, isolations, etc.

• #3 – Senior forward Brandon Slater (6-7, 220) — Records 8.7 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 50.2 percent overall and 30-of-88 (34.1 percent) from three-point range … The stretch ‘4’ spots up, can run some pick and rolls and is a high-level cutter … Shoots 69 percent from around the basket.

• #23 – Fifth-year senior forward Jermaine Samuels (6-7, 230) — Posts 10.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, and shoots 46.3 percent from the field and 260of-97 (26.8 percent) from deep … Spots up, rolls on ball screens and posts up … Grades out in the 72nd percentile nationally in overall defense.

• #43 – Sophomore forward Eric Dixon (6-8, 255) — Registers 9.3 points and 6.3 boards per outing, while shooting 51 percent from the field and 16-of-31 (51.6 percent) from beyond the arc … Villanova scores 1.197 points per possession on his post-ups, which ranks in the 95th percentile nationally.

Key Bench Contributor

• #14 – Senior guard Caleb Daniels (6-4, 210) — Averages 10.3 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 44.4 percent overall and 39.6 percent from three-point range (55-of-139) … Runs the third-most pick and rolls on the team and is mostly used as a spot-up shooter, with 73.6 percent of his shots being jumpers … Can also slash to the rim, with a 61.2 field goal percentage while in close.

Matchup Breakdown

• Evidenced by only six players making the list above, Villanova isn’t a deep team, and — like Michigan — the bench has only gotten shorter in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats’ wings and forwards can play multiple positions and make up a squad that’s tall in the backcourt but undersized down low.

• Villanova’s defense ranks 30th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Wildcats don’t force many steals or block many shots, but they don’t foul much and, while they allow a lot of three-point attempts, they’re stellar at guarding them (30.6 percent).

The weakness comes on the interior, as one might imagine considering the size of the frontcourt. Opponents are shooting 48.6 percent on two-point shots (133rd in the country) and the Wildcats rank 187th in defensive rebounding percentage. Both Purdue and Creighton found immense success down low against the Wildcats. Michigan will have the advantage down there, with forward Moussa Diabate standing 6-foot-11 and center Hunter Dickinson at 7-foot-1. The Wolverines slot 21st in amount of post-ups and 44th in post-up efficiency including passes. Being able to get it down low, recognize double-teams and make the right decisions will be key for Michigan. As mentioned, the Wildcats allow a lot of looks from deep, so the opportunity to knock down some triples should be there.

• Typical of a Villanova team, the offense plays at a slow pace, ranks eighth nationally in adjusted efficiency, turns it over on just 15.6 percent of its possessions, rebounds 31.2 percent of its misses, shoots threes at a 36.2-percent clip (51st nationally) with 38.6 percent of its shot attempts coming from behind the arc (24th) and makes 82.6 percent of their free throws (first). The Wildcats make 9.4 threes (22nd in the nation) on 25.9 attempts per game, and all five shooters can fire from range, with five rotation players draining over 34 percent of their three-point looks. To put it simply: Villanova values every single possession, hardly wasting any.

• Michigan has somewhat of an advantage in terms of style on offense (and because the Wolverines have an elite attack), and Villanova will have an edge when it has the ball. The Wildcats run the 13th most pick-and-roll actions in the country and rank 12th with one point per possession. Meanwhile, Michigan has struggled defending pick and rolls all season, grading out in the 29th percentile in the country while allowing 0.888 points per play. Trying to check the Wildcats will be a big challenge in that regard.

They may be undersized, but the Wildcats run the 34th-most post-ups in the country and rank 21st with 1.035 points per play when factoring in passes. They have four different players who’ve logged 70 or more post-up possessions. A lot of their open three-pointers are created from post-ups — though Michigan should be able to take them on one-on-one down low and stay on shooters — something to watch.

Clayton Sayfie Prediction

All things considered, it’s amazing Michigan’s in this spot in the first place, and it speaks to its coaching ability and talent level. The Wolverines made beautiful adjustments and got some prime-time performances in the first weekend, and will need some more if it wants to keep this run going to the Elite Eight.

Villanova allows a lot of three-point attempts, meaning freshman wing Caleb Houstan can’t go scoreless like he did against Tennessee.

Dickinson will have to be dialed in for every aspect of his game — scoring, passing and defending. It won’t be easy for him on the other end, since he’ll be guarding bigs who stretch the floor and can shoot. But Michigan must run the others off the three-point line and take their chances with the forward taking threes. And don’t forget Dickinson has the size advantage on the other end.

Fifth-year senior point guard DeVante’ Jones was largely absent last week, but his playmaking will be a key as well. Freshman Frankie Collins will play a bigger role again, either way.

Michigan will fight and cover the spread in what will be an entertaining game, but Villanova will ultimately take care of the ball and hit enough shots to prevail.

Prediction: Villanova 78, Michigan 74