Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Oregon

Michigan Wolverines basketball had over a week off between its trip to Atlantis and its next game, but the team was back on the road midweek, spent a couple days in Eugene and are ready for a matchup with the Oregon Ducks Saturday afternoon.

Head coach Juwan Howard continues to recover from his heart surgery and is now transitioning to an assistant coach role as he nears a full return. Phil Martelli will continue to act as interim head coach.

Dana Altman‘s Oregon crew has lost its last two games after starting off 4-0. The Ducks fell to Santa Clara (88-82) and Alabama (99-91) on a neutral floor last week and are looking to rebound.

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Oregon

Date	Saturday, Dec. 1, 2023
Venue	Matthew Knight Arena (12,364)
Time	3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	FS1
On The Call	Jordan Kent (play-by-play) and Eldridge Recasner (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WTKA (1050 AM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Oregon -2.5, over/under 152.5
Kenpom Prediction	Oregon 79, Michigan 76 (37-percent chance of U-M victory)

Michigan projected starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn transitioned into “light contact drills” a couple weeks back. On Nov. 3, U-M announced that junior guard Jace Howard would miss 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in his right knee and tibia.

Stat to know: McDaniel is shooting 57.9 percent on two-pointers, compared to 39.9 last season.

Trend to watch: Williams is shooting 11-of-20 on three-pointers in wins and 3-of-16 in losses.

Projected Oregon starters

• #9 – Senior guard Keeshawn Barthelemy (6-1, 180) — Registers 12.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, while shooting 55.6 percent on twos and 7-of-19 (36.8 percent) on threes. He ranks in the 95th percentile nationally with 1.25 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), which make up 43.2 percent of his possessions.

• #2 – Senior guard Jesse Zarzuela (6-2, 170) — The Central Michigan transfer averages 11.8 points, 2.3 assists and 1.8 boards per contest, while connecting on 47.8 percent of his shots from inside the arc and 5 of his 19 triple tries. He dropped 19 points on 8-of-17 shooting with 2 assists and 6 rebounds in a CMU win over Michigan last season. He likes to attack off the bounce. He sees 34.1 percent of his shots come at the rim and more than half of his jumpers come off the dribble.

• #5 – Senior guard Jermaine Couisnard (6-4, 210) — Averages 12.2 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists per outing, while shooting 48.7 percent on twos and 5-of-17 (29.4 percent) on triples. He handles the ball in pick-and-roll situations, isolations, spot-ups, etc.

• #22 – Junior forward Jadrian Tracey (6-5, 190) — The St. Joseph’s and Florida SouthWestern transfer records 9.4 points, 1.2 assists and 4.6 rebounds per contest, while shooting 41.7 percent from inside the arc and 7-of-15 (46.7 percent) on threes. Nearly half of his possessions are spot-ups, on which he scores 1.13 points per play.

• #24 – Senior center Mahamadou Diawara (6-10, 250) — The Mali native transferred in from Stetson. He averages 5.8 points and 5 boards per outing, while shooting 78.6 percent from the field (all twos). He’s had issues with fouls at different points, fouling out against Alabama and committing 4 in a loss to Santa Clara, and commits 7.2 per 40 minutes.

Key bench contributors
• #4 – Junior guard Brennan Rigsby (6-3, 185) — The team’s best shooter has made 9 of his 20 tries from deep. He averages 8.5 points and 3.2 rebounds in 23.3 minutes per game. He’s shooting 55.6 percent on 18 two-point attempts. He’s scoring 1.46 points per play on spot-ups and also uses dribble handoffs.

• #3 – Freshman guard Jackson Shelstad (6-0, 170) — The former top-30 recruit and two-time Gatorade Player of the Year in Oregon plays backup point guard minutes. He’s averaging 9 points per game in two appearances, shooting 4-of-8 on threes and 3-of-8 on twos.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Oregon

1. Oregon is banged up
Oregon is without two seven-footers that were set to impact this season — starter Nate Bittle and backup N’Faly Dante — and find itself short-handed headed into this one.

With that, Oregon has struggled to shoot from inside the arc (144th nationally at 51.9 percent) and defend two-pointers (156th, 49.4 percent). The Ducks are strong on the defensive glass, though, allowing opponents to only rebound 23.4 percent of their own missed shots.

2. Both teams have struggled defensively
Oregon held all of its first four opponents to less than 0.95 points per possession, but all four (Georgia, Montana, Tennessee State and Florida A&M) rank 138th or worse in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Once the Ducks played teams with more of a pulse (Santa Clara and Alabama in Florida for the Emerald Coast Classic), they folded defensively to the tune of 1.2 and 1.27 points per play allowed. In each loss, the opponents shot better than 55 percent on twos and 37 percent on threes.

The Ducks play primarily man-to-man defense (on 99 percent of possessions) and mix in pressure on 10.7 percent of plays. The Ducks have the personnel to switch some screens that don’t include the center, but opponents are getting off a lot of mid-range jumpers against drop coverage.

Ball screens have been a massive issue for Altman’s club, as they have been for Michigan. The Ducks are allowing 0.873 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), and they’ve faced a lot of them (90th percentile in volume). The Ducks’ poor defense has led to opponents getting off a lot of three-point attempts (34.2 percent of overall attempts) and assists on 44.2 percent of their buckets.

Michigan, meanwhile, has had well-documented defensive struggles that came to an embarrassing head in a loss to Texas Tech in the fifth-place Battle 4 Atlantis game. Texas Tech was all over the offensive glass, made 20 two-pointers and scored 1.18 points per play.

The Wolverines have had over a week to get back on the same page and make improvements, but it remains to be seen if Michigan can carry that over to game action.

3. Oregon plays clean offense
The Ducks turn the ball over on only 12.9 percent of possessions (14th in the country) and shoot 36.4 percent on threes (78th). The Ducks have connected on only 51.8 percent of their twos, but they get to the free throw line at a nice rate, with 38.8 free throws to every 100 field goal attempts.

Oregon plays a four-out offense with a lot of ball handlers, meaning they can also run in transition. The Ducks do so effectively, averaging 17.2 fast-break points per contest.

Couisnard and Barthelemy are the two main ball-screen creators, and the pick-and-roll offense slots in the 96th percentile in the country with 1.064 points per play.

Prediction

Both teams lack depth — Michigan in the backcourt and Oregon in the frontcourt. Both teams have played good offense and bad defense (until Michigan couldn’t buy a bucket against Texas Tech).

Oregon’s home court does provide a real advantage, and this game will give a sneak peek at what road games in Eugene will look like in the coming years.

Given how Michigan has looked lately, it’s hard to give the Wolverines the edge on the road.

Prediction: Oregon 79, Michigan 74