Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. St. John's

Michigan Wolverines basketball will face its first power conference opponent this season in St. John’s Monday night in New York. The Maize and Blue are currently led by interim head coach Phil Martelli while Juwan Howard works back after heart surgery. The Red Storm, meanwhile, are set for their second regular-season game under head coach Rick Pitino.

Pitino spent the previous three seasons at Iona and spent some time coaching in Puerto Rico and Greece, after being fired by Louisville following the 2017 campaign amid an investigation into pay-for-play violations. Michigan handed Pitino his final loss with the Cardinals, a 73-69 upset win in the NCAA Tournament round of 32.

St. John’s started off the season with a 90-74 win over Stony Brook last Tuesday and hasn’t played since. It did, however, already take on a Big Ten team in an exhibition, beating Rutgers 89-78. Michigan is 2-0 with victories over UNC Asheville (99-74) and Youngstown State (92-62), exceeding expectations in the early going.

To get you ready for tip off, here’s a breakdown of key players, what to watch for and our final score prediction.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. St. John’s

Date	Monday, Nov. 13, 2023
Venue	Madison Square Garden
Time	6:31 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	Fox Sports 1
On The Call	Gus Johnson (play-by-play) and Bill Raftery (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -1, over/under 153.5
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan 77, St. John’s 76 (52-percent chance of U-M victory)

Projected Michigan starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn had not yet practiced full-go as of last week, while recovering from an ACL injury suffered last December. On Nov. 3, U-M announced that junior guard Jace Howard would miss 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in his right knee and tibia.

Stat to know: Nkamhoua and redshirt sophomore forward Will Tschetter combined to shoot 15-for-15 from the field in Friday’s win over Youngstown State. Tschetter (20 points) and Nkamhoua (17) were Michigan’s top two leading scorers.

Trend to watch: Michigan averaged 7.6 transition points per game last season. This year, through two games, the Wolverines are averaging 22.5 transition points.

Projected St. John’s starters

• #5 – Graduate guard Daniss Jenkins (6-4, 185) — The Iona transfer averaged 15.6 points and a MAAC-high 4.9 assists per game with his previous school last season. He posted 17 points and 8 dimes in the Stony Brook game. Last season, the high-usage player shot 44.5 percent on twos and 36.1 percent on 155 three-point attempts. He produced 1 point per possession (including passes) on ball screens. Most of his jump shots come off the dribble.

• #4 – Gradaute guard Nahiem Alleyne (6-4, 200) — The UConn transfer averaged 5.1 points with 32 three-pointers in 17.9 minutes per game for the national champions. He put up only 3 points against Stony Brook but posted a team-high 19 in an exhibition win over Rutgers. He played an off-ball role for the Huskies but is efficient on ball screens.

• #30 – Graduate guard Sean Conway (6-4, 200) — The Virginia Military Institute transfer averaged 12.1 points and 4.9 rebounds per game last season. He led his team with 62 made three-pointers on 164 attempts (37.8 percent). He registered a 52.2 effective field goal percentage on jump shots, including a 51.9-percent mark on dribble jumpers.

• #8 – Graduate forward Chris Ledlum (6-6, 225) — The Harvard transfer was a Michigan target this past offseason. He was a unanimous All-Ivy League selection a year ago, averaging 18.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.1 blocks per outing. He put up 16 points and 13 boards against Stony Brook and had a double-double with 11 and 10 versus Rutgers. Ledlum spots up, posts up, cuts, scores on put-backs and can even handle the ball. Most of his shot attempts, 56.9 percent of them, come at the rim, where he had a 59.8 field goal percentage last season.

• #11 – Senior center Joel Soriano (6-11, 250) — St. John’s only returning starter was named second-team All-Big East last season. He shot 56.3 percent from inside the arc last season and didn’t attempt any threes but he did make both of his triple tries against Stony Brook. He protects the rim with a 5.1-percent block rate and is a strong rebounder both on the offensive and defensive glass. He had 76 made put-backs last season. He posts up a lot but isn’t all that efficient (0.85 points per play).

Key bench contributors
• #3 – Senior guard Jordan Dingle (6-3, 190) — The reigning Ivy League Player of the Year at Penn finished second in the nation with 23.4 points per game a year ago. He had 22 20-point performances. Dingle shot 55.5 percent on twos and 35.6 percent on 216 three-point tries, an excellent shooter both on catch-and-shoot (60.3 effective field goal percentage) and dribble jumpers (44.3). He missed most of the preseason with an injury but was able to go in the season opener. He’s likely an eventual starter for this team but is still working back into basketball shape.

• #35 – Junior forward Glenn Taylor Jr. (6-6, 205) — The Oregon State transfer registered 11.6 points and 3.7 rebounds in 30.1 minutes per game for the Beavers last season. He’s a wing who does most of his damage on the interior, with 188 of his 251 shots coming inside the arc last season, but he can shoot (19-of-63 on threes last year and 1-of-2 from beyond the arc against Stony Brook). He saw 60.8 percent of his shots come at the rim last season, converting on 50.3 percent of them.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. St. John’s

1. New-look St. John’s
Pitino-coached teams play fast — Iona averaged 15.8 transition points per game last season and pressed on 27 percent of defensive possessions — lock in with multiple defensive looks and clean up on the offensive glass.

There’s talent on this team, too. Pitino mined the transfer portal and has 12 total newcomers on this St. John’s roster. It may take some time for the pieces to fit together, but despite looking impressive in the first two games, Michigan might be in a similar boat (though the Wolverines have less newcomers and return their starting point guard).

2. Frontcourt battles will be fun
Jenkins and McDaniel are both athletic and will provide for an exciting point guard matchup. Jenkins has the size advantage and will look to get to the rim, so it’ll be a challenge for Michigan’s sophomore.

The most fun matchups might be in the frontcourt, though. Nkamhoua will match up with Ledlum, who the Wolverines wanted out of the portal this offseason. Both players are versatile and will handle the ball. Based on what we’ve seen from Nkamhoua’s mentality, he’ll probably take it upon himself to slow down what is arguably the opposition’s best player.

Reed and Michigan will have to be strong on the glass, as they have been to this point. Soriano will certainly test them there, and limiting his second-chance buckets will be critical.

3. Michigan will face some more resistance
This Michigan team has surprisingly shot well from beyond the arc, making 21 of their first 52 triples (40.4 percent), but won’t get as many easy looks against Pitino’s club.

The Wolverines and their lack of guard depth will also have to face some pressure. It’ll be important not to get into foul trouble so that the primary ball-handlers can stay on the floor.

We’ll see what kind of shots Michigan can generate against St. John’s and how the transition offense performs in what could be a faster-paced game.

Prediction

Michigan should have a decent crowd at Madison Square Garden, drawing New York City alums that both always show out and have been impressed by the team through two games. That will help.

This is the first big game for Pitino at St. John’s and their first significant home game until taking on Xavier Dec. 20. The Red Storm will want to make a strong impression.

This is a nice test for Michigan before a potentially tricky game against Long Beach State (123rd on Kenpom) and heading to the Bahamas for three games against solid opponents next week.

Prediction: Michigan 75, St. John’s 71