Michigan football’s record projection slightly improves after bye week

The Michigan Wolverines are off their bye week and into game prep for Saturday against the Wisconsin Badgers. After the idle week for both teams, ESPN’s computers have updated the outlook for the 2025 season.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Wolverines finishing the year with a 9.1-3.2 record and sitting at No. 12 overall nationally, the same spot as last week’s update. The Wolverines were 15th heading into the season.

The win-loss projection more or less falls in line with preseason expectations, with the over/under line set at 8.5 wins by BetMGM ahead of 2025.

Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 6 of its 8 remaining games this season, with only the road game at USC on Oct. 11 (33.5%) and the season finale vs. Ohio State (39.9%) as projected losses.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After a Week 4 update, here is a breakdown of Michigan’s numbers and win percentages.

Projected W-L	9.1-3.2
Win Out Percentage	2.8%
6-Plus Wins	99.9%
Win Division (N/A)	0.0%
Win Conference	10.5%
Playoffs	33.6%
Make National Championship	5.2%
Win National Championship	2.4%

Game-by-game FPI predictions

Aug. 30 vs. No. 80 New Mexico: 34-17 W (1-0)
Sept. 6 at No. 15 Oklahoma: 24-13 (1-1)
Sept. 13 vs. No. 125 Central Michigan: 63-3 W (2-1)
Sept. 20 at No. 21 Nebraska: 30-27 W (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten)
Sept 27: BYE
Oct. 4 vs. No. 57 Wisconsin: 89.1% chance of victory
Oct. 11 at No. 10 USC: 33.5% chance of victory
Oct. 18 vs. No. 26 Washington: 79.6% chance of victory
Oct. 25 at No. 63 Michigan State: 85.7% chance of victory
Nov. 1 vs. No. 74 Purdue: 94.0% chance of victory
Nov. 8: BYE
Nov. 15 at No. 78 Northwestern (Wrigley Field): 92.7% chance of victory
Nov. 22 at No. 47 Maryland: 79.6% chance of victory
Nov. 29 vs. No. 2 Ohio State: 39.9% chance of victory
PROJECTED RECORD: 9.1-3.2

Michigan gets an SP+ update, too

Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric has Michigan in its No. 15 spot after the weekend of action, up 2 spots from last week.

What is SP+?

“In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008,” Connelly writes. “SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking (hence the lack of unbeatens near the top), so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does.”

Michigan’s offensive SP+ is at 33rd (33.6), defense sits at 8th (13.4) and special teams at 63rd (0.0).