Skip to main content
Michigan

Michigan football moves up in ESPN's FPI rankings after Nebraska blowout

Anthony Broomeby: Anthony Broome10/02/23anthonytbroome
NCAA Football: Michigan at Nebraska
Michigan running back Kalel Mullings (20) runs for a touchdown against Nebraska defensive back Malcolm Hartzog (13) during the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. (Photo: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports)

The Michigan Wolverines are 5-0 on the season after a blowout of Nebraska in Lincoln on Saturday afternoon and continue to increase their resume with five weeks of domination.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing with a 10.3-1.9 record on the season, ranking No. 8 in the country and moving up four spots from last week’s rankings. The Wolverines ranked sixth heading into the start of their 2023 season.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After Sunday’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.

Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections

RankProj. W-LWin Out%6+ Wins%Win Division%Win Conference%Playoff%Make NC%Win NC%
810.3-1.97.3%100%19.5%15.9%20.7%9.6%4.4%

Sept. 2 vs. East Carolina (FPI rank: 93rd) – 30-3 W (1-0)
Sept. 9 vs. UNLV (90th) – 35-7 W (1-0)
Sept. 16 vs. Bowling Green (104th) – 31-6 W (3-0)
Sept. 23 vs. Rutgers (44th) – 31-7 W (4-0, 1-0 B1G)
Sept. 30 at Nebraska (73rd) – 45-7 W (5-0, 2-0 B1G)
Oct. 7 at Minnesota (49th) – 87.1% chance of victory
Oct. 14 vs. Indiana (81st) – 95.5% chance of victory
Oct. 21 at Michigan State (59th) – 90.4% chance of victory
Oct. 28 – BYE
Nov. 4 vs. Purdue (53rd) – 93.4% chance of victory
Nov. 11 at Penn State (5th) – 37.2% chance of victory
Nov. 18 at Maryland (25th) – 72.3% chance of victory
Nov. 25 vs. Ohio State (1st) – 39.8% chance of victory

SP+ tells a different story, though

ESPN’s Bill Connelly has a much different perception of Michigan than his employer’s FPI counterpart. After a dominant showing in Week 5, his SP+ metric has Michigan still set as the No. 1 team in the country moving forward.

Ohio State, Texas, Georgia and Alabama round out the top five. Penn State rates 13th in Connelly’s metric.

“What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” Connelly writes. “I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

“SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

What’s next for the Wolverines?

Michigan hits the road for the second week in a row on Saturday night in a trip to Minnesota to take on the 3-2 Gophers. Kickoff from Minneapolis is set for 7:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast via NBC.

You may also like