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Michigan football FPI outlook updated after close call vs. Minnesota

Anthony Broomeby: Anthony Broome09/30/24anthonytbroome
Michigan HC Sherrone Moore
(Lon Horwedel/The Wolverine)

The Michigan Wolverines are 4-1 on the year and looking to grab another signature win for head coach Sherrone Moore on Saturday in its first road game of 2024 this weekend, but what do the analytics say about where U-M stands?

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing the year with a 7.4-4.6 record this season, moving down six spots to the metric’s No. 26 team in the country. It plays the No. 33 team in the FPI on Saturday with a road trip to take on the Washington Huskies on the docket. The Wolverines came into the year as the metric’s No. 12 team nationally.

A few other FPI numbers of note are a 1.5% chance of winning the Big Ten, an 8.9% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 0.2% chance of making the national championship game. Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 3 of its 7 remaining games, according to FPI. The metric suggests a higher likelihood of losses at Washington, vs. Oregon, at Indiana and at Ohio State.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After this week’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.

Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections

Win Out %6 Wins %Win Conf%Playoff%Make NC%Win NC%
0.1%94.31.5%8.9%0.3%0.1%

Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State (FPI rank: 75th): 30-10 W (1-0)
Sept. 7 vs. Texas (1st): 31-12 L (1-1)
Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas St. (106th): 28-18 W (2-1)
Sept. 21 vs. USC (11th): 27-24 W (3-1, 1-0 B1G)
Sept. 28 vs. Minnesota (56th): 27-24 W (4-1, 2-0 B1G)
Oct. 5 at Washington (33rd): 42.2% chance of victory
Oct. 19 at Illinois (43rd): 56.5% chance of victory
Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (65th): 76.7% chance of victory
Nov. 2 vs. Oregon (9th): 35.8% chance of victory
Nov. 9 at Indiana (16th): 32.2% chance of victory
Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (86th): 87.6% chance of victory
Nov. 30 at Ohio State (3rd): 9.3% chance of victory

What’s next for the Wolverines?

Michigan heads to Washington for a Saturday night matchup in Seattle on Oct. 5, set for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on NBC. The game is a rematch of the College Football Playoff National Championship from last season, a 34-13 victory for the Wolverines.

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