Michigan football projected win total drops after loss at Oklahoma

The Michigan Wolverines fell to 1-1 last weekend with a 24-13 loss in Week 2 against the Oklahoma Sooners, and now the ESPN computers have updated their game-by-game outlook.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Wolverines finishing the year with a 6.9-5.1 record and sitting at No. 29 overall nationally, falling 9 spots from last week. The Wolverines were 15th heading into the season.

The win-loss projection falls below the preseason expectation, with the over/under line set at 8.5 wins by BetMGM ahead of 2025.

Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 7 of its 10 remaining games this season, with only the road games at Nebraska on Sept. 20 (30.5%) at USC on Oct. 11 (12.3%) and the season finale vs. Ohio State (22.1%) as projected losses. A few more are now closer to coin flips.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After a Week 1 update, which can be taken with a grain of salt given Texas remains at No. 1 in their computers, here is a breakdown of Michigan’s numbers and win percentages.

Projected W-L	6.9-5.1
Win Out Percentage	0.0%
6-Plus Wins	86.6%
Win Division (N/A)	0.0%
Win Conference	0.5%
Playoffs	4.0%
Make National Championship	0.2%
Win National Championship	0.1%

Michigan football game-by-game FPI predictions

Aug. 30 vs. No. 114 New Mexico: 34-17 W (1-0)
Sept. 6 at No. 23 Oklahoma: 24-13 (1-1)
Sept. 13 vs. No. 118 Central Michigan: 95.5% chance of victory
Sept. 20 at No. 12 Nebraska: 30.5% chance of victory
Sept 27: BYE
Oct. 4 vs. No. 40 Wisconsin: 66.0% chance of victory
Oct. 11 at No. 5 USC: 12.3% chance of victory
Oct. 18 vs. No. 30 Washington: 62.1% chance of victory
Oct. 25 at No. 62 Michigan State: 70.1% chance of victory
Nov. 1 vs. No. 78 Purdue: 81.0% chance of victory
Nov. 8: BYE
Nov. 15 at No. 75 Northwestern (Wrigley Field): 83.9% chance of victory
Nov. 22 at No. 58 Maryland: 68.3% chance of victory
Nov. 29 vs. No. 3 Ohio State: 22.1% chance of victory
PROJECTED RECORD: 6.9-5.1

The road ahead for the Wolverines

Michigan hosts the in-state Central Michigan Chippewas on Saturday at noon on the Big Ten Network in its non-conference finale, followed by a road trip to Nebraska on Sept. 20 for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS.

Head coach Sherrone Moore will serve a school-imposed two-game suspension as part of the NCAA advanced scouting sanctions. He will be allowed to coach the Wolverines in practice this week before the suspension kicks in at midnight on Saturday and runs through 11:59 p.m. following the Nebraska game. Associate head coach Biff Poggi will coach the team in the interim.